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Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of the ectomycorrhizal mushroom Tricholoma matsutake under multiple climate change scenarios

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ABSTRACT

Effective conservation and utilization strategies for natural biological resources require a clear understanding of the geographic distribution of the target species. Tricholoma matsutake is an ectomycorrhizal (ECM) mushroom with high ecological and economic value. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of T. matsutake under current conditions in China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data and 24 environmental variables. The future distributions of T. matsutake in the 2050s and 2070s were also projected under the RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 climate change emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The areas of marginally suitable, suitable and highly suitable habitats for T. matsutake in China were approximately 0.22 × 106 km2, 0.14 × 106 km2, and 0.11 × 106 km2, respectively. The model simulations indicated that the area of marginally suitable habitats would undergo a relatively small change under all four climate change scenarios; however, suitable habitats would significantly decrease, and highly suitable habitat would nearly disappear. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of T. matsutake and can be used as a reference for studies on other ectomycorrhizal mushroom species.

No MeSH data available.


Probability relationships between dominant climate factors and geographic distribution of Tricholoma matsutake.
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f5: Probability relationships between dominant climate factors and geographic distribution of Tricholoma matsutake.

Mentions: To further elucidate the features of climate and geography that created the suitable habitat of T. matsutake, we created different MaxEnt models using only one of the corresponding variables mentioned above. According to the quantitative relationship between environmental variables and habitat suitability (logistic probability of presence), we created response curves that illustrate how the logistic prediction changes as each environmental variable changes (Fig. 5). According to the response curves, we calculated the suitable ranges of environmental variables for the distribution area of T. matsutake (logistic probability of presence >0.3). The ranges are 600–1300 mm for bio12, greater than 0.41 for bio3, 10–13.5 °C for bio2, 7–23 °C for bio10, 0–22 °C for bio1, 14–27.5 °C for bio5, 400–1300 mm for bio18, 1000–4400 m for elevation, and greater than 3 degrees for slope. The logistic probability of presence increased gradually as the slope increased.


Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of the ectomycorrhizal mushroom Tricholoma matsutake under multiple climate change scenarios
Probability relationships between dominant climate factors and geographic distribution of Tricholoma matsutake.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC5385516&req=5

f5: Probability relationships between dominant climate factors and geographic distribution of Tricholoma matsutake.
Mentions: To further elucidate the features of climate and geography that created the suitable habitat of T. matsutake, we created different MaxEnt models using only one of the corresponding variables mentioned above. According to the quantitative relationship between environmental variables and habitat suitability (logistic probability of presence), we created response curves that illustrate how the logistic prediction changes as each environmental variable changes (Fig. 5). According to the response curves, we calculated the suitable ranges of environmental variables for the distribution area of T. matsutake (logistic probability of presence >0.3). The ranges are 600–1300 mm for bio12, greater than 0.41 for bio3, 10–13.5 °C for bio2, 7–23 °C for bio10, 0–22 °C for bio1, 14–27.5 °C for bio5, 400–1300 mm for bio18, 1000–4400 m for elevation, and greater than 3 degrees for slope. The logistic probability of presence increased gradually as the slope increased.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

ABSTRACT

Effective conservation and utilization strategies for natural biological resources require a clear understanding of the geographic distribution of the target species. Tricholoma matsutake is an ectomycorrhizal (ECM) mushroom with high ecological and economic value. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of T. matsutake under current conditions in China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data and 24 environmental variables. The future distributions of T. matsutake in the 2050s and 2070s were also projected under the RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 climate change emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The areas of marginally suitable, suitable and highly suitable habitats for T. matsutake in China were approximately 0.22 × 106 km2, 0.14 × 106 km2, and 0.11 × 106 km2, respectively. The model simulations indicated that the area of marginally suitable habitats would undergo a relatively small change under all four climate change scenarios; however, suitable habitats would significantly decrease, and highly suitable habitat would nearly disappear. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of T. matsutake and can be used as a reference for studies on other ectomycorrhizal mushroom species.

No MeSH data available.