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Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of the ectomycorrhizal mushroom Tricholoma matsutake under multiple climate change scenarios

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

ABSTRACT

Effective conservation and utilization strategies for natural biological resources require a clear understanding of the geographic distribution of the target species. Tricholoma matsutake is an ectomycorrhizal (ECM) mushroom with high ecological and economic value. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of T. matsutake under current conditions in China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data and 24 environmental variables. The future distributions of T. matsutake in the 2050s and 2070s were also projected under the RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 climate change emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The areas of marginally suitable, suitable and highly suitable habitats for T. matsutake in China were approximately 0.22 × 106 km2, 0.14 × 106 km2, and 0.11 × 106 km2, respectively. The model simulations indicated that the area of marginally suitable habitats would undergo a relatively small change under all four climate change scenarios; however, suitable habitats would significantly decrease, and highly suitable habitat would nearly disappear. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of T. matsutake and can be used as a reference for studies on other ectomycorrhizal mushroom species.

No MeSH data available.


Geographic locations of Tricholoma matsutake populations in China.The map was plotted using ArcGIS 9.3 (ESRI, Redlands, CA, USA, http://www.esri.com/).
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f1: Geographic locations of Tricholoma matsutake populations in China.The map was plotted using ArcGIS 9.3 (ESRI, Redlands, CA, USA, http://www.esri.com/).

Mentions: Data for a total of 91 present locations of T. matsutake were selected to build the model (Fig. 1). Using 19 bioclimatic variables and 3 topographic variables, MaxEnt provided satisfactory results, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of the training and test data sets were 0.976 and 0.961, respectively. The AUC value of the MaxEnt model that used only the soil type variables was 0.925 for the training data set and 0.803 for the test data set. Thus, the model results can be considered satisfactory.


Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of the ectomycorrhizal mushroom Tricholoma matsutake under multiple climate change scenarios
Geographic locations of Tricholoma matsutake populations in China.The map was plotted using ArcGIS 9.3 (ESRI, Redlands, CA, USA, http://www.esri.com/).
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC5385516&req=5

f1: Geographic locations of Tricholoma matsutake populations in China.The map was plotted using ArcGIS 9.3 (ESRI, Redlands, CA, USA, http://www.esri.com/).
Mentions: Data for a total of 91 present locations of T. matsutake were selected to build the model (Fig. 1). Using 19 bioclimatic variables and 3 topographic variables, MaxEnt provided satisfactory results, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of the training and test data sets were 0.976 and 0.961, respectively. The AUC value of the MaxEnt model that used only the soil type variables was 0.925 for the training data set and 0.803 for the test data set. Thus, the model results can be considered satisfactory.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

ABSTRACT

Effective conservation and utilization strategies for natural biological resources require a clear understanding of the geographic distribution of the target species. Tricholoma matsutake is an ectomycorrhizal (ECM) mushroom with high ecological and economic value. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of T. matsutake under current conditions in China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data and 24 environmental variables. The future distributions of T. matsutake in the 2050s and 2070s were also projected under the RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 climate change emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The areas of marginally suitable, suitable and highly suitable habitats for T. matsutake in China were approximately 0.22 × 106 km2, 0.14 × 106 km2, and 0.11 × 106 km2, respectively. The model simulations indicated that the area of marginally suitable habitats would undergo a relatively small change under all four climate change scenarios; however, suitable habitats would significantly decrease, and highly suitable habitat would nearly disappear. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of T. matsutake and can be used as a reference for studies on other ectomycorrhizal mushroom species.

No MeSH data available.