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Spatiotemporal Fluctuations and Triggers of Ebola VirusSpillover

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

ABSTRACT

Because the natural reservoir of Ebola virus remains unclear and diseaseoutbreaks in humans have occurred only sporadically over a large region,forecasting when and where Ebola spillovers are most likely to occur constitutesa continuing and urgent public health challenge. We developed a statisticalmodeling approach that associates 37 human or great ape Ebola spillovers since1982 with spatiotemporally dynamic covariates including vegetative cover, humanpopulation size, and absolute and relative rainfall over 3 decades acrosssub-Saharan Africa. Our model (area under the curve 0.80 on test data) showsthat spillover intensity is highest during transitions between wet and dryseasons; overall, high seasonal intensity occurs over much of tropical Africa;and spillover intensity is greatest at high (>1,000/km2) and verylow (<100/km2) human population densities compared withintermediate levels. These results suggest strong seasonality in Ebola spilloverfrom wild reservoirs and indicate particular times and regions for targetedsurveillance.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Seasonal spatiotemporal dynamics of Ebola virus spillover intensity (i.e.,average density or expected number of points per unit area and month) aspercentile values ranking predicted intensities at all grid cell locationswithin the region of Africa where annual rainfall was >500 mm for allmonths from January 1983 through December 2014. Lines at top and rightdepict the marginal intensity by month to indicate where (latitudinally andlongitudinally) intensity is most dynamic. Dotted horizontal line marks theequator.
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vid1: Seasonal spatiotemporal dynamics of Ebola virus spillover intensity (i.e.,average density or expected number of points per unit area and month) aspercentile values ranking predicted intensities at all grid cell locationswithin the region of Africa where annual rainfall was >500 mm for allmonths from January 1983 through December 2014. Lines at top and rightdepict the marginal intensity by month to indicate where (latitudinally andlongitudinally) intensity is most dynamic. Dotted horizontal line marks theequator.


Spatiotemporal Fluctuations and Triggers of Ebola VirusSpillover
Seasonal spatiotemporal dynamics of Ebola virus spillover intensity (i.e.,average density or expected number of points per unit area and month) aspercentile values ranking predicted intensities at all grid cell locationswithin the region of Africa where annual rainfall was >500 mm for allmonths from January 1983 through December 2014. Lines at top and rightdepict the marginal intensity by month to indicate where (latitudinally andlongitudinally) intensity is most dynamic. Dotted horizontal line marks theequator.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC5382727&req=5

vid1: Seasonal spatiotemporal dynamics of Ebola virus spillover intensity (i.e.,average density or expected number of points per unit area and month) aspercentile values ranking predicted intensities at all grid cell locationswithin the region of Africa where annual rainfall was >500 mm for allmonths from January 1983 through December 2014. Lines at top and rightdepict the marginal intensity by month to indicate where (latitudinally andlongitudinally) intensity is most dynamic. Dotted horizontal line marks theequator.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

ABSTRACT

Because the natural reservoir of Ebola virus remains unclear and diseaseoutbreaks in humans have occurred only sporadically over a large region,forecasting when and where Ebola spillovers are most likely to occur constitutesa continuing and urgent public health challenge. We developed a statisticalmodeling approach that associates 37 human or great ape Ebola spillovers since1982 with spatiotemporally dynamic covariates including vegetative cover, humanpopulation size, and absolute and relative rainfall over 3 decades acrosssub-Saharan Africa. Our model (area under the curve 0.80 on test data) showsthat spillover intensity is highest during transitions between wet and dryseasons; overall, high seasonal intensity occurs over much of tropical Africa;and spillover intensity is greatest at high (>1,000/km2) and verylow (<100/km2) human population densities compared withintermediate levels. These results suggest strong seasonality in Ebola spilloverfrom wild reservoirs and indicate particular times and regions for targetedsurveillance.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus