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Temporal cross ‐ correlation between influenza ‐ like illnesses and invasive pneumococcal disease in The Netherlands

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

ABSTRACT

Background: While the burden of community‐acquired pneumonia and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) is still considerable, there is little insight in the factors contributing to disease. Previous research on the lagged relationship between respiratory viruses and pneumococcal disease incidence is inconclusive, and studies correcting for temporal autocorrelation are lacking.

Objectives: To investigate the temporal relation between influenza‐like illnesses (ILI) and IPD, correcting for temporal autocorrelation.

Methods: Weekly counts of ILI were obtained from the Sentinel Practices of NIVEL Primary Care Database. IPD data were collected from the Dutch laboratory‐based surveillance system for bacterial meningitis from 2004 to 2014. We analysed the correlation between time series, pre‐whitening the dependent time series with the best‐fit seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to the independent time series. We performed cross‐correlations between ILI and IPD incidences, and the (pre‐whitened) residuals, in the overall population and in the elderly.

Results: We found significant cross‐correlations between ILI and IPD incidences peaking at lags ‐3 overall and at 1 week in the 65+ population. However, after pre‐whitening, no cross‐correlations were apparent in either population group.

Conclusion: Our study suggests that ILI occurrence does not seem to be the major driver of IPD incidence in The Netherlands.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Weekly incidence of influenza‐like illnesses and invasive pneumococcal disease recorded in the Dutch population 2004‐2014 (A) across all age groups (B) aged 65 years and over
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irv12442-fig-0003: Weekly incidence of influenza‐like illnesses and invasive pneumococcal disease recorded in the Dutch population 2004‐2014 (A) across all age groups (B) aged 65 years and over

Mentions: Between 2004 week 1 and 2014 week 25, a total of 20,601 ILI and 6,572 IPD cases were recorded through the NIVEL network and bacterial meningitis database (with coverage 0.7% and 25%, respectively). In the subpopulation aged 65 years and over, 3,202 ILI and 3,399 IPD cases were recorded between week 38 in 2004 and week 25 in 2014. ILI and IPD incidences show a shared seasonal periodicity, peaking during the winter weeks (Figure 3A). Note that incidences for ILI and IPD are given per 10 000 and 1 000 000 inhabitants, respectively. An early ILI peak appears at the end of 2009, the year the influenza AH1N1 pandemic occurred. The ILI incidence peaks varied in time of onset, height and duration between years, while the IPD incidence shows a seasonal pattern that is more constant. In the population aged ≥65 years, the same patterns are seen (Figure 3B). Typically, the height of ILI peaks in the older group differs from the peak height in the overall population in the same year.


Temporal cross ‐ correlation between influenza ‐ like illnesses and invasive pneumococcal disease in The Netherlands
Weekly incidence of influenza‐like illnesses and invasive pneumococcal disease recorded in the Dutch population 2004‐2014 (A) across all age groups (B) aged 65 years and over
© Copyright Policy - creativeCommonsBy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC5304567&req=5

irv12442-fig-0003: Weekly incidence of influenza‐like illnesses and invasive pneumococcal disease recorded in the Dutch population 2004‐2014 (A) across all age groups (B) aged 65 years and over
Mentions: Between 2004 week 1 and 2014 week 25, a total of 20,601 ILI and 6,572 IPD cases were recorded through the NIVEL network and bacterial meningitis database (with coverage 0.7% and 25%, respectively). In the subpopulation aged 65 years and over, 3,202 ILI and 3,399 IPD cases were recorded between week 38 in 2004 and week 25 in 2014. ILI and IPD incidences show a shared seasonal periodicity, peaking during the winter weeks (Figure 3A). Note that incidences for ILI and IPD are given per 10 000 and 1 000 000 inhabitants, respectively. An early ILI peak appears at the end of 2009, the year the influenza AH1N1 pandemic occurred. The ILI incidence peaks varied in time of onset, height and duration between years, while the IPD incidence shows a seasonal pattern that is more constant. In the population aged ≥65 years, the same patterns are seen (Figure 3B). Typically, the height of ILI peaks in the older group differs from the peak height in the overall population in the same year.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

ABSTRACT

Background: While the burden of community‐acquired pneumonia and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) is still considerable, there is little insight in the factors contributing to disease. Previous research on the lagged relationship between respiratory viruses and pneumococcal disease incidence is inconclusive, and studies correcting for temporal autocorrelation are lacking.

Objectives: To investigate the temporal relation between influenza‐like illnesses (ILI) and IPD, correcting for temporal autocorrelation.

Methods: Weekly counts of ILI were obtained from the Sentinel Practices of NIVEL Primary Care Database. IPD data were collected from the Dutch laboratory‐based surveillance system for bacterial meningitis from 2004 to 2014. We analysed the correlation between time series, pre‐whitening the dependent time series with the best‐fit seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to the independent time series. We performed cross‐correlations between ILI and IPD incidences, and the (pre‐whitened) residuals, in the overall population and in the elderly.

Results: We found significant cross‐correlations between ILI and IPD incidences peaking at lags ‐3 overall and at 1 week in the 65+ population. However, after pre‐whitening, no cross‐correlations were apparent in either population group.

Conclusion: Our study suggests that ILI occurrence does not seem to be the major driver of IPD incidence in The Netherlands.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus