Limits...
Meteotsunamis in the Laurentian Great Lakes

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

ABSTRACT

The generation mechanism of meteotsunamis, which are meteorologically induced water waves with spatial/temporal characteristics and behavior similar to seismic tsunamis, is poorly understood. We quantify meteotsunamis in terms of seasonality, causes, and occurrence frequency through the analysis of long-term water level records in the Laurentian Great Lakes. The majority of the observed meteotsunamis happen from late-spring to mid-summer and are associated primarily with convective storms. Meteotsunami events of potentially dangerous magnitude (height > 0.3 m) occur an average of 106 times per year throughout the region. These results reveal that meteotsunamis are much more frequent than follow from historic anecdotal reports. Future climate scenarios over the United States show a likely increase in the number of days favorable to severe convective storm formation over the Great Lakes, particularly in the spring season. This would suggest that the convectively associated meteotsunamis in these regions may experience an increase in occurrence frequency or a temporal shift in occurrence to earlier in the warm season. To date, meteotsunamis in the area of the Great Lakes have been an overlooked hazard.

No MeSH data available.


Meteotsunami size-frequency distributions for each lake.Lake-wide meteotsunami height observations (dots) fit with the Pareto Type 1 distribution (solid line) for each lake.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC5121654&req=5

f2: Meteotsunami size-frequency distributions for each lake.Lake-wide meteotsunami height observations (dots) fit with the Pareto Type 1 distribution (solid line) for each lake.

Mentions: To calculate the occurrence frequency of extreme meteotsunamis, a Peaks Over Threshold (POT) approach was taken to fit the Pareto Type 1 distribution to the meteotsunami size data in each lake3334. The resulting distributions are plotted in Fig. 2, with an annual meteotsunami magnitude (i.e. 1 exceedance per year) for the Great Lakes of 0.83 m and a 10-year (i.e. 0.1 exceedances per year) return level of 1.3 m. For reference, the largest recorded water level oscillation observed during the deadly 1954 Chicago meteotsunami was approximately 1 m35, a return level which occurs throughout the Great Lakes with a recurrence interval of 3 years (i.e. 0.33 exceedance per year). Thus, while meteotsunamis of this magnitude were previously thought of as a rare phenomenon, water level analysis reveals that large meteotsunamis are rather regular in the Great Lakes. Nevertheless, water level oscillations associated with meteotsunamis are not considered in planning or design along the Great Lakes coasts, nor can current forecasting systems predict their occurrence for public safety efforts11. In general, the meteotsunami threat is a serious coastal hazard for the Great Lakes that has to date been underestimated.


Meteotsunamis in the Laurentian Great Lakes
Meteotsunami size-frequency distributions for each lake.Lake-wide meteotsunami height observations (dots) fit with the Pareto Type 1 distribution (solid line) for each lake.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC5121654&req=5

f2: Meteotsunami size-frequency distributions for each lake.Lake-wide meteotsunami height observations (dots) fit with the Pareto Type 1 distribution (solid line) for each lake.
Mentions: To calculate the occurrence frequency of extreme meteotsunamis, a Peaks Over Threshold (POT) approach was taken to fit the Pareto Type 1 distribution to the meteotsunami size data in each lake3334. The resulting distributions are plotted in Fig. 2, with an annual meteotsunami magnitude (i.e. 1 exceedance per year) for the Great Lakes of 0.83 m and a 10-year (i.e. 0.1 exceedances per year) return level of 1.3 m. For reference, the largest recorded water level oscillation observed during the deadly 1954 Chicago meteotsunami was approximately 1 m35, a return level which occurs throughout the Great Lakes with a recurrence interval of 3 years (i.e. 0.33 exceedance per year). Thus, while meteotsunamis of this magnitude were previously thought of as a rare phenomenon, water level analysis reveals that large meteotsunamis are rather regular in the Great Lakes. Nevertheless, water level oscillations associated with meteotsunamis are not considered in planning or design along the Great Lakes coasts, nor can current forecasting systems predict their occurrence for public safety efforts11. In general, the meteotsunami threat is a serious coastal hazard for the Great Lakes that has to date been underestimated.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

ABSTRACT

The generation mechanism of meteotsunamis, which are meteorologically induced water waves with spatial/temporal characteristics and behavior similar to seismic tsunamis, is poorly understood. We quantify meteotsunamis in terms of seasonality, causes, and occurrence frequency through the analysis of long-term water level records in the Laurentian Great Lakes. The majority of the observed meteotsunamis happen from late-spring to mid-summer and are associated primarily with convective storms. Meteotsunami events of potentially dangerous magnitude (height > 0.3 m) occur an average of 106 times per year throughout the region. These results reveal that meteotsunamis are much more frequent than follow from historic anecdotal reports. Future climate scenarios over the United States show a likely increase in the number of days favorable to severe convective storm formation over the Great Lakes, particularly in the spring season. This would suggest that the convectively associated meteotsunamis in these regions may experience an increase in occurrence frequency or a temporal shift in occurrence to earlier in the warm season. To date, meteotsunamis in the area of the Great Lakes have been an overlooked hazard.

No MeSH data available.