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Association between prediabetes and risk of cardiovascular disease and all cause mortality: systematic review and meta-analysis

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

ABSTRACT

Objectives:  To evaluate associations between different definitions of prediabetes and the risk of cardiovascular disease and all cause mortality.

Design:  Meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.

Data sources:  Electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, and Google Scholar).

Selection criteria:  Prospective cohort studies from general populations were included for meta-analysis if they reported adjusted relative risks with 95% confidence intervals for associations between the risk of composite cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease, stroke, all cause mortality, and prediabetes.

Review methods:  Two authors independently reviewed and selected eligible studies, based on predetermined selection criteria. Prediabetes was defined as impaired fasting glucose according to the criteria of the American Diabetes Association (IFG-ADA; fasting glucose 5.6-6.9 mmol/L), the WHO expert group (IFG-WHO; fasting glucose 6.1-6.9 mmol/L), impaired glucose tolerance (2 hour plasma glucose concentration 7.8-11.0 mmol/L during an oral glucose tolerance test), or raised haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) of 39-47 mmol/mol(5.7-6.4%) according to ADA criteria or 42-47 mmol/mol (6.0-6.4%) according to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline. The relative risks of all cause mortality and cardiovascular events were calculated and reported with 95% confidence intervals.

Results:  53 prospective cohort studies with 1 611 339 individuals were included for analysis. The median follow-up duration was 9.5 years. Compared with normoglycaemia, prediabetes (impaired glucose tolerance or impaired fasting glucose according to IFG-ADA or IFG-WHO criteria) was associated with an increased risk of composite cardiovascular disease (relative risk 1.13, 1.26, and 1.30 for IFG-ADA, IFG-WHO, and impaired glucose tolerance, respectively), coronary heart disease (1.10, 1.18, and 1.20, respectively), stroke (1.06, 1.17, and 1.20, respectively), and all cause mortality (1.13, 1.13 and 1.32, respectively). Increases in HBA1c to 39-47 mmol/mol or 42-47 mmol/mol were both associated with an increased risk of composite cardiovascular disease (1.21 and 1.25, respectively) and coronary heart disease (1.15 and 1.28, respectively), but not with an increased risk of stroke and all cause mortality.

Conclusions:  Prediabetes, defined as impaired glucose tolerance, impaired fasting glucose, or raised HbA1c, was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. The health risk might be increased in people with a fasting glucose concentration as low as 5.6 mmol/L or HbA1c of 39 mmol/mol.

No MeSH data available.


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Fig 2 Association between prediabetes and risk of all cause mortality. D+L=DerSimonian and Laird random effects models; HbA1c-ADA=prediabetes defined as raised HbA1c according to American Diabetes Association (ADA) criteria (39-47 mmol/mol); HbA1c-NICE=prediabetes defined as raised HbA1c according to NICE guidance (42-47 mmol/mol); IFG-ADA=impaired fasting glucose (IFG) according to ADA criteria (fasting plasma glucose of 5.6-6.9 mmol/L); IFG-WHO=IFG according to WHO criteria (6.1-6.9 mmol/L); IGT=impaired glucose tolerance; I-V=inverse variance fixed effects models
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f2: Fig 2 Association between prediabetes and risk of all cause mortality. D+L=DerSimonian and Laird random effects models; HbA1c-ADA=prediabetes defined as raised HbA1c according to American Diabetes Association (ADA) criteria (39-47 mmol/mol); HbA1c-NICE=prediabetes defined as raised HbA1c according to NICE guidance (42-47 mmol/mol); IFG-ADA=impaired fasting glucose (IFG) according to ADA criteria (fasting plasma glucose of 5.6-6.9 mmol/L); IFG-WHO=IFG according to WHO criteria (6.1-6.9 mmol/L); IGT=impaired glucose tolerance; I-V=inverse variance fixed effects models

Mentions: Twenty five studies reported data for the association between prediabetes and risk of all cause mortality. Random effects models analyses show that prediabetes was associated with an increased risk of all cause mortality: IFG-ADA (relative risk 1.13, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.25), IFG-WHO (1.13, 1.05 to 1.21), impaired glucose tolerance (1.32, 1.23 to 1.40). Prediabetes was not associated with an increased risk of all cause mortality when it was defined as HbA1c 39-47 mmol/mol (0.97, 0.88 to 1.07) or HbA1c 42-47 mmol/mol (1.21, 0.95 to 1.56) (fig 2). Data from a single study showed that prediabetes defined as IFG-ADA and impaired glucose tolerance was not associated with increased risk of all caused mortality (1.03, 0.75 to 1.42).48 No studies reported the risk of all cause mortality in patients with both IFG-WHO and impaired glucose tolerance. The increased risk of all cause mortality was significantly higher in the impaired glucose tolerance group than in groups according to other definitions of prediabetes (P<0.001).


Association between prediabetes and risk of cardiovascular disease and all cause mortality: systematic review and meta-analysis
Fig 2 Association between prediabetes and risk of all cause mortality. D+L=DerSimonian and Laird random effects models; HbA1c-ADA=prediabetes defined as raised HbA1c according to American Diabetes Association (ADA) criteria (39-47 mmol/mol); HbA1c-NICE=prediabetes defined as raised HbA1c according to NICE guidance (42-47 mmol/mol); IFG-ADA=impaired fasting glucose (IFG) according to ADA criteria (fasting plasma glucose of 5.6-6.9 mmol/L); IFG-WHO=IFG according to WHO criteria (6.1-6.9 mmol/L); IGT=impaired glucose tolerance; I-V=inverse variance fixed effects models
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getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC5121106&req=5

f2: Fig 2 Association between prediabetes and risk of all cause mortality. D+L=DerSimonian and Laird random effects models; HbA1c-ADA=prediabetes defined as raised HbA1c according to American Diabetes Association (ADA) criteria (39-47 mmol/mol); HbA1c-NICE=prediabetes defined as raised HbA1c according to NICE guidance (42-47 mmol/mol); IFG-ADA=impaired fasting glucose (IFG) according to ADA criteria (fasting plasma glucose of 5.6-6.9 mmol/L); IFG-WHO=IFG according to WHO criteria (6.1-6.9 mmol/L); IGT=impaired glucose tolerance; I-V=inverse variance fixed effects models
Mentions: Twenty five studies reported data for the association between prediabetes and risk of all cause mortality. Random effects models analyses show that prediabetes was associated with an increased risk of all cause mortality: IFG-ADA (relative risk 1.13, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.25), IFG-WHO (1.13, 1.05 to 1.21), impaired glucose tolerance (1.32, 1.23 to 1.40). Prediabetes was not associated with an increased risk of all cause mortality when it was defined as HbA1c 39-47 mmol/mol (0.97, 0.88 to 1.07) or HbA1c 42-47 mmol/mol (1.21, 0.95 to 1.56) (fig 2). Data from a single study showed that prediabetes defined as IFG-ADA and impaired glucose tolerance was not associated with increased risk of all caused mortality (1.03, 0.75 to 1.42).48 No studies reported the risk of all cause mortality in patients with both IFG-WHO and impaired glucose tolerance. The increased risk of all cause mortality was significantly higher in the impaired glucose tolerance group than in groups according to other definitions of prediabetes (P<0.001).

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

ABSTRACT

Objectives: &nbsp;To evaluate associations between different definitions of prediabetes and the risk of cardiovascular disease and all cause mortality.

Design: &nbsp;Meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.

Data sources: &nbsp;Electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, and Google Scholar).

Selection criteria: &nbsp;Prospective cohort studies from general populations were included for meta-analysis if they reported adjusted relative risks with 95% confidence intervals for associations between the risk of composite cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease, stroke, all cause mortality, and prediabetes.

Review methods: &nbsp;Two authors independently reviewed and selected eligible studies, based on predetermined selection criteria. Prediabetes was defined as impaired fasting glucose according to the criteria of the American Diabetes Association (IFG-ADA; fasting glucose 5.6-6.9 mmol/L), the WHO expert group (IFG-WHO; fasting glucose 6.1-6.9 mmol/L), impaired glucose tolerance (2 hour plasma glucose concentration 7.8-11.0 mmol/L during an oral glucose tolerance test), or raised haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) of 39-47 mmol/mol(5.7-6.4%) according to ADA criteria or 42-47 mmol/mol (6.0-6.4%) according to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline. The relative risks of all cause mortality and cardiovascular events were calculated and reported with 95% confidence intervals.

Results: &nbsp;53 prospective cohort studies with 1&thinsp;611&thinsp;339 individuals were included for analysis. The median follow-up duration was 9.5 years. Compared with normoglycaemia, prediabetes (impaired glucose tolerance or impaired fasting glucose according to IFG-ADA or IFG-WHO criteria) was associated with an increased risk of composite cardiovascular disease (relative risk 1.13, 1.26, and 1.30 for IFG-ADA, IFG-WHO, and impaired glucose tolerance, respectively), coronary heart disease (1.10, 1.18, and 1.20, respectively), stroke (1.06, 1.17, and 1.20, respectively), and all cause mortality (1.13, 1.13 and 1.32, respectively). Increases in HBA1c to 39-47 mmol/mol or 42-47 mmol/mol were both associated with an increased risk of composite cardiovascular disease (1.21 and 1.25, respectively) and coronary heart disease (1.15 and 1.28, respectively), but not with an increased risk of stroke and all cause mortality.

Conclusions: &nbsp;Prediabetes, defined as impaired glucose tolerance, impaired fasting glucose, or raised HbA1c, was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. The health risk might be increased in people with a fasting glucose concentration as low as 5.6 mmol/L or HbA1c of 39 mmol/mol.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus