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Malaria Elimination Campaigns in the Lake Kariba Region of Zambia: A Spatial Dynamical Model

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

ABSTRACT

As more regions approach malaria elimination, understanding how different interventions interact to reduce transmission becomes critical. The Lake Kariba area of Southern Province, Zambia, is part of a multi-country elimination effort and presents a particular challenge as it is an interconnected region of variable transmission intensities. In 2012–13, six rounds of mass test-and-treat drug campaigns were carried out in the Lake Kariba region. A spatial dynamical model of malaria transmission in the Lake Kariba area, with transmission and climate modeled at the village scale, was calibrated to the 2012–13 prevalence survey data, with case management rates, insecticide-treated net usage, and drug campaign coverage informed by surveillance. The model captured the spatio-temporal trends of decline and rebound in malaria prevalence in 2012–13 at the village scale. Various interventions implemented between 2016–22 were simulated to compare their effects on reducing regional transmission and achieving and maintaining elimination through 2030. Simulations predict that elimination requires sustaining high coverage with vector control over several years. When vector control measures are well-implemented, targeted mass drug campaigns in high-burden areas further increase the likelihood of elimination, although drug campaigns cannot compensate for insufficient vector control. If infections are regularly imported from outside the region into highly receptive areas, vector control must be maintained within the region until importations cease. Elimination in the Lake Kariba region is possible, although human movement both within and from outside the region risk damaging the success of elimination programs.

No MeSH data available.


Households in the Lake Kariba region of Southern Province, Zambia, are clustered into village-scale simulation constructs within twelve health facility catchment areas.Adapted from [9].
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pcbi.1005192.g001: Households in the Lake Kariba region of Southern Province, Zambia, are clustered into village-scale simulation constructs within twelve health facility catchment areas.Adapted from [9].

Mentions: The Zambia National Malaria Control Centre has successfully scaled up recommended malaria control interventions over the past decade and is pursuing alternative methods to further reduce malaria transmission, including community-targeted parasite reservoir reduction strategies [7,8], with a target elimination date of 2020. Beginning in 2012, mass drug campaigns have been carried out annually in the Lake Kariba region of Southern Province, Zambia (Fig 1), where transmission is seasonal and spatially variable.


Malaria Elimination Campaigns in the Lake Kariba Region of Zambia: A Spatial Dynamical Model
Households in the Lake Kariba region of Southern Province, Zambia, are clustered into village-scale simulation constructs within twelve health facility catchment areas.Adapted from [9].
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC5120780&req=5

pcbi.1005192.g001: Households in the Lake Kariba region of Southern Province, Zambia, are clustered into village-scale simulation constructs within twelve health facility catchment areas.Adapted from [9].
Mentions: The Zambia National Malaria Control Centre has successfully scaled up recommended malaria control interventions over the past decade and is pursuing alternative methods to further reduce malaria transmission, including community-targeted parasite reservoir reduction strategies [7,8], with a target elimination date of 2020. Beginning in 2012, mass drug campaigns have been carried out annually in the Lake Kariba region of Southern Province, Zambia (Fig 1), where transmission is seasonal and spatially variable.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

ABSTRACT

As more regions approach malaria elimination, understanding how different interventions interact to reduce transmission becomes critical. The Lake Kariba area of Southern Province, Zambia, is part of a multi-country elimination effort and presents a particular challenge as it is an interconnected region of variable transmission intensities. In 2012–13, six rounds of mass test-and-treat drug campaigns were carried out in the Lake Kariba region. A spatial dynamical model of malaria transmission in the Lake Kariba area, with transmission and climate modeled at the village scale, was calibrated to the 2012–13 prevalence survey data, with case management rates, insecticide-treated net usage, and drug campaign coverage informed by surveillance. The model captured the spatio-temporal trends of decline and rebound in malaria prevalence in 2012–13 at the village scale. Various interventions implemented between 2016–22 were simulated to compare their effects on reducing regional transmission and achieving and maintaining elimination through 2030. Simulations predict that elimination requires sustaining high coverage with vector control over several years. When vector control measures are well-implemented, targeted mass drug campaigns in high-burden areas further increase the likelihood of elimination, although drug campaigns cannot compensate for insufficient vector control. If infections are regularly imported from outside the region into highly receptive areas, vector control must be maintained within the region until importations cease. Elimination in the Lake Kariba region is possible, although human movement both within and from outside the region risk damaging the success of elimination programs.

No MeSH data available.