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DengueME: A Tool for the Modeling and Simulation of Dengue Spatiotemporal Dynamics †

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ABSTRACT

The prevention and control of dengue are great public health challenges for many countries, particularly since 2015, as other arboviruses have been observed to interact significantly with dengue virus. Different approaches and methodologies have been proposed and discussed by the research community. An important tool widely used is modeling and simulation, which help us to understand epidemic dynamics and create scenarios to support planning and decision making processes. With this aim, we proposed and developed DengueME, a collaborative open source platform to simulate dengue disease and its vector’s dynamics. It supports compartmental and individual-based models, implemented over a GIS database, that represent Aedes aegypti population dynamics, human demography, human mobility, urban landscape and dengue transmission mediated by human and mosquito encounters. A user-friendly graphical interface was developed to facilitate model configuration and data input, and a library of models was developed to support teaching-learning activities. DengueME was applied in study cases and evaluated by specialists. Other improvements will be made in future work, to enhance its extensibility and usability.

No MeSH data available.


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Using DengueME to simulate dengue spread from commercial to residential areas of a city. Panels show three moments of a simulated epidemic in the study area. (a) Beginning of the simulation with a few hotspots; (b) propagation waves from the hotspots; (c) overall dissemination and pockets of immunity [63].
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ijerph-13-00920-f010: Using DengueME to simulate dengue spread from commercial to residential areas of a city. Panels show three moments of a simulated epidemic in the study area. (a) Beginning of the simulation with a few hotspots; (b) propagation waves from the hotspots; (c) overall dissemination and pockets of immunity [63].

Mentions: The spatial spread of dengue is the result of complex dynamic interactions between humans, mosquitoes and the different virus serotypes. In this model, there are two classes of agents, humans and Ae. aegypti females, and only one serotype was considered. The presence of the virus in each agent is represented as human and vector attributes. Each cell corresponds to a square area unit that can represent a residential area or an area of public space. Human agents were distributed in residential areas, while vector agents were distributed across all of the cell space. Mosquitoes bite humans according to a daily biting rate, and the transmission of the virus occurs according to a given transmission probability. The mobility of mosquitoes was designed to occur locally (in the nearest neighborhood), while human mobility was designed to be concentrated in public locations, but including movements to residential areas. To illustrate this dynamic, Figure 10 shows the result of a spatial dengue spread simulation at Ilha do Governador. These simulations consider about 2500 human agents and 2000 mosquito agents. Epidemic waves travel from the commercial areas to residential areas of the island. This is an example of a dengue transmission agent-based model, adapted from Medeiros et al. (2011) [51], implemented in DengueME.


DengueME: A Tool for the Modeling and Simulation of Dengue Spatiotemporal Dynamics †
Using DengueME to simulate dengue spread from commercial to residential areas of a city. Panels show three moments of a simulated epidemic in the study area. (a) Beginning of the simulation with a few hotspots; (b) propagation waves from the hotspots; (c) overall dissemination and pockets of immunity [63].
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Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC5036753&req=5

ijerph-13-00920-f010: Using DengueME to simulate dengue spread from commercial to residential areas of a city. Panels show three moments of a simulated epidemic in the study area. (a) Beginning of the simulation with a few hotspots; (b) propagation waves from the hotspots; (c) overall dissemination and pockets of immunity [63].
Mentions: The spatial spread of dengue is the result of complex dynamic interactions between humans, mosquitoes and the different virus serotypes. In this model, there are two classes of agents, humans and Ae. aegypti females, and only one serotype was considered. The presence of the virus in each agent is represented as human and vector attributes. Each cell corresponds to a square area unit that can represent a residential area or an area of public space. Human agents were distributed in residential areas, while vector agents were distributed across all of the cell space. Mosquitoes bite humans according to a daily biting rate, and the transmission of the virus occurs according to a given transmission probability. The mobility of mosquitoes was designed to occur locally (in the nearest neighborhood), while human mobility was designed to be concentrated in public locations, but including movements to residential areas. To illustrate this dynamic, Figure 10 shows the result of a spatial dengue spread simulation at Ilha do Governador. These simulations consider about 2500 human agents and 2000 mosquito agents. Epidemic waves travel from the commercial areas to residential areas of the island. This is an example of a dengue transmission agent-based model, adapted from Medeiros et al. (2011) [51], implemented in DengueME.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

ABSTRACT

The prevention and control of dengue are great public health challenges for many countries, particularly since 2015, as other arboviruses have been observed to interact significantly with dengue virus. Different approaches and methodologies have been proposed and discussed by the research community. An important tool widely used is modeling and simulation, which help us to understand epidemic dynamics and create scenarios to support planning and decision making processes. With this aim, we proposed and developed DengueME, a collaborative open source platform to simulate dengue disease and its vector’s dynamics. It supports compartmental and individual-based models, implemented over a GIS database, that represent Aedes aegypti population dynamics, human demography, human mobility, urban landscape and dengue transmission mediated by human and mosquito encounters. A user-friendly graphical interface was developed to facilitate model configuration and data input, and a library of models was developed to support teaching-learning activities. DengueME was applied in study cases and evaluated by specialists. Other improvements will be made in future work, to enhance its extensibility and usability.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus