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Meteorological Factors for Dengue Fever Control and Prevention in South China

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

ABSTRACT

Dengue fever (DF) is endemic in Guangzhou and has been circulating for decades, causing significant economic loss. DF prevention mainly relies on mosquito control and change in lifestyle. However, alert fatigue may partially limit the success of these countermeasures. This study investigated the delayed effect of meteorological factors, as well as the relationships between five climatic variables and the risk for DF by boosted regression trees (BRT) over the period of 2005–2011, to determine the best timing and strategy for adapting such preventive measures. The most important meteorological factor was daily average temperature. We used BRT to investigate the lagged relationship between dengue clinical burden and climatic variables, with the 58 and 62 day lag models attaining the largest area under the curve. The climatic factors presented similar patterns between these two lag models, which can be used as references for DF prevention in the early stage. Our results facilitate the development of the Mosquito Breeding Risk Index for early warning systems. The availability of meteorological data and modeling methods enables the extension of the application to other vector-borne diseases endemic in tropical and subtropical countries.

No MeSH data available.


Time series of the date of onset of daily DF cases in Guangzhou from 2005 to 2011.
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ijerph-13-00867-f001: Time series of the date of onset of daily DF cases in Guangzhou from 2005 to 2011.

Mentions: The number of daily DF cases in Guangzhou between 2005 and 2011, totaling 2616 cases, is shown in Figure 1. Sporadic cases were identified in the summer every year, with two peaks in 2006 and 2007, in which the number of daily cases reached more than 40.


Meteorological Factors for Dengue Fever Control and Prevention in South China
Time series of the date of onset of daily DF cases in Guangzhou from 2005 to 2011.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC5036700&req=5

ijerph-13-00867-f001: Time series of the date of onset of daily DF cases in Guangzhou from 2005 to 2011.
Mentions: The number of daily DF cases in Guangzhou between 2005 and 2011, totaling 2616 cases, is shown in Figure 1. Sporadic cases were identified in the summer every year, with two peaks in 2006 and 2007, in which the number of daily cases reached more than 40.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

ABSTRACT

Dengue fever (DF) is endemic in Guangzhou and has been circulating for decades, causing significant economic loss. DF prevention mainly relies on mosquito control and change in lifestyle. However, alert fatigue may partially limit the success of these countermeasures. This study investigated the delayed effect of meteorological factors, as well as the relationships between five climatic variables and the risk for DF by boosted regression trees (BRT) over the period of 2005–2011, to determine the best timing and strategy for adapting such preventive measures. The most important meteorological factor was daily average temperature. We used BRT to investigate the lagged relationship between dengue clinical burden and climatic variables, with the 58 and 62 day lag models attaining the largest area under the curve. The climatic factors presented similar patterns between these two lag models, which can be used as references for DF prevention in the early stage. Our results facilitate the development of the Mosquito Breeding Risk Index for early warning systems. The availability of meteorological data and modeling methods enables the extension of the application to other vector-borne diseases endemic in tropical and subtropical countries.

No MeSH data available.