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Temperature Variability and Occurrence of Diarrhoea in Children under Five-Years-Old in Cape Town Metropolitan Sub-Districts

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

ABSTRACT

This paper describes the relationship between temperature change and diarrhoea in under five-year-old children in the Cape Town Metropolitan Area (CTMA) of South Africa. The study used climatic and aggregated surveillance diarrhoea incidence data of two peak periods of seven months each over two consecutive years. A Poisson regression model and a lagged Poisson model with autocorrelation was performed to test the relationship between climatic parameters (minimum and maximum temperature) and incidence of diarrhoea. In total, 58,617 cases of diarrhoea occurred in the CTMA, which is equivalent to 8.60 cases per 100 population under five years old for the study period. The mixed effect overdispersed Poisson model showed that a cluster adjusted effect of an increase of 5 °C in minimum and maximum temperature results in a 40% (Incidence risk ratio IRR: 1.39, 95% CI 1.31–1.48) and 32% (IRR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.22–1.41) increase in incident cases of diarrhoea, respectively, for the two periods studied. Autocorrelation of one-week lag (Autocorrelation AC 1) indicated that a 5 °C increase in minimum and maximum temperature led to 15% (IRR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.09–1.20) and 6% (IRR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01–1.12) increase in diarrhoea cases, respectively. In conclusion, there was an association between an increase in minimum and maximum temperature, and the rate at which diarrhoea affected children under the age of five years old in the Cape Town Metropolitan Area. This finding may have implications for the effects of global warming and requires further investigation.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Trend in diarrhoea cases with change in min and max temperature in Cape Town Metropolitan Area CTMA sub-districts and in all eight sub-disricts. Period 1: November2012–May 2013; period 2: November 2013–May 2014, (A): period between period 1 and period 2 when no data were present for analysis (June 2013–October 2013).
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ijerph-13-00859-f001: Trend in diarrhoea cases with change in min and max temperature in Cape Town Metropolitan Area CTMA sub-districts and in all eight sub-disricts. Period 1: November2012–May 2013; period 2: November 2013–May 2014, (A): period between period 1 and period 2 when no data were present for analysis (June 2013–October 2013).

Mentions: Table 1 reflects the number of diarrhoeal cases, incidence rates and temperature ranges combined and over the two separate periods of seven months (November 2012–May 2013 represented by period one and November 2013–May 2014 represented by period 2) in the CTMA. Overall, 58,617 cases of children under the age of five were seen during the study periods. The incidence rates and temperatures means and ranges were similar for the two periods that include the summer months. Data for the winter months are not included, but diarrhoea incidence is much lower in those months and the downward trend towards the winter months is visible in Figure 1.


Temperature Variability and Occurrence of Diarrhoea in Children under Five-Years-Old in Cape Town Metropolitan Sub-Districts
Trend in diarrhoea cases with change in min and max temperature in Cape Town Metropolitan Area CTMA sub-districts and in all eight sub-disricts. Period 1: November2012–May 2013; period 2: November 2013–May 2014, (A): period between period 1 and period 2 when no data were present for analysis (June 2013–October 2013).
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC5036692&req=5

ijerph-13-00859-f001: Trend in diarrhoea cases with change in min and max temperature in Cape Town Metropolitan Area CTMA sub-districts and in all eight sub-disricts. Period 1: November2012–May 2013; period 2: November 2013–May 2014, (A): period between period 1 and period 2 when no data were present for analysis (June 2013–October 2013).
Mentions: Table 1 reflects the number of diarrhoeal cases, incidence rates and temperature ranges combined and over the two separate periods of seven months (November 2012–May 2013 represented by period one and November 2013–May 2014 represented by period 2) in the CTMA. Overall, 58,617 cases of children under the age of five were seen during the study periods. The incidence rates and temperatures means and ranges were similar for the two periods that include the summer months. Data for the winter months are not included, but diarrhoea incidence is much lower in those months and the downward trend towards the winter months is visible in Figure 1.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

ABSTRACT

This paper describes the relationship between temperature change and diarrhoea in under five-year-old children in the Cape Town Metropolitan Area (CTMA) of South Africa. The study used climatic and aggregated surveillance diarrhoea incidence data of two peak periods of seven months each over two consecutive years. A Poisson regression model and a lagged Poisson model with autocorrelation was performed to test the relationship between climatic parameters (minimum and maximum temperature) and incidence of diarrhoea. In total, 58,617 cases of diarrhoea occurred in the CTMA, which is equivalent to 8.60 cases per 100 population under five years old for the study period. The mixed effect overdispersed Poisson model showed that a cluster adjusted effect of an increase of 5 °C in minimum and maximum temperature results in a 40% (Incidence risk ratio IRR: 1.39, 95% CI 1.31–1.48) and 32% (IRR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.22–1.41) increase in incident cases of diarrhoea, respectively, for the two periods studied. Autocorrelation of one-week lag (Autocorrelation AC 1) indicated that a 5 °C increase in minimum and maximum temperature led to 15% (IRR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.09–1.20) and 6% (IRR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01–1.12) increase in diarrhoea cases, respectively. In conclusion, there was an association between an increase in minimum and maximum temperature, and the rate at which diarrhoea affected children under the age of five years old in the Cape Town Metropolitan Area. This finding may have implications for the effects of global warming and requires further investigation.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus