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Trends in type 2 diabetes incidence and mortality in Scotland between 2004 and 2013

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ABSTRACT

Aims/hypothesis: The relative contribution of increasing incidence and declining mortality to increasing prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Scotland is unclear. Trends in incidence and mortality rates are described for type 2 diabetes in Scotland between 2004 and 2013 by age, sex and socioeconomic deprivation.

Methods: Data for incident and prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes were obtained from the Scottish national diabetes register with number of deaths identified from linkage to mortality records. Population size and death data for Scotland by age, sex and socioeconomic deprivation were obtained from National Records of Scotland. Age- and sex-specific incidence and mortality rates stratified by year and deciles of socioeconomic status were calculated using Poisson models.

Results: There were 180,290 incident cases of type 2 diabetes in Scotland between 2004 and 2013. Overall, incidence of type 2 diabetes remained stable over time and was 4.88 (95% CI 4.84, 4.90) and 3.33 (3.28, 3.32) per 1000 in men and women, respectively. However, incidence increased among young men, remained stable in young women, and declined in older men and women. Incidence rates declined in all socioeconomic groups but increased after 2008 in the most deprived groups. Standardised mortality ratios associated with diabetes, adjusted for age and socioeconomic group, were 1.38 (1.36, 1.41) in men and 1.49 (1.45, 1.52) in women, and remained constant over time.

Conclusions/interpretation: Incidence of type 2 diabetes has stabilised in recent years suggesting that increasing prevalence may be primarily attributed to declining mortality. Prevention of type 2 diabetes remains important, particularly among socioeconomically deprived populations.

Electronic supplementary material: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00125-016-4054-9) contains peer-reviewed but unedited supplementary material, which is available to authorised users.

No MeSH data available.


Trends in incidence rates by deprivation deciles among people aged 65 years for (a) men (deprivation deciles: dark blue, D1 [most deprived]; light blue, D4; light green, D7; dark green, D10 [least deprived]) and (b) women (deprivation deciles: dark red, D1 [most deprived]; light red, D4; light yellow, D7; dark yellow, D10 [least deprived])
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Fig2: Trends in incidence rates by deprivation deciles among people aged 65 years for (a) men (deprivation deciles: dark blue, D1 [most deprived]; light blue, D4; light green, D7; dark green, D10 [least deprived]) and (b) women (deprivation deciles: dark red, D1 [most deprived]; light red, D4; light yellow, D7; dark yellow, D10 [least deprived])

Mentions: Incidence rates were higher among more deprived groups with a more marked effect of deprivation among women than men (Fig. 2). Incidence declined across all deprivation categories for men and women but the decline was slower among more deprived deciles. Furthermore, from around 2010, incidence of type 2 diabetes appeared to increase among men and women in the most deprived decile, leading to widening inequality in diabetes incidence in later years.Fig. 2


Trends in type 2 diabetes incidence and mortality in Scotland between 2004 and 2013
Trends in incidence rates by deprivation deciles among people aged 65 years for (a) men (deprivation deciles: dark blue, D1 [most deprived]; light blue, D4; light green, D7; dark green, D10 [least deprived]) and (b) women (deprivation deciles: dark red, D1 [most deprived]; light red, D4; light yellow, D7; dark yellow, D10 [least deprived])
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC5016553&req=5

Fig2: Trends in incidence rates by deprivation deciles among people aged 65 years for (a) men (deprivation deciles: dark blue, D1 [most deprived]; light blue, D4; light green, D7; dark green, D10 [least deprived]) and (b) women (deprivation deciles: dark red, D1 [most deprived]; light red, D4; light yellow, D7; dark yellow, D10 [least deprived])
Mentions: Incidence rates were higher among more deprived groups with a more marked effect of deprivation among women than men (Fig. 2). Incidence declined across all deprivation categories for men and women but the decline was slower among more deprived deciles. Furthermore, from around 2010, incidence of type 2 diabetes appeared to increase among men and women in the most deprived decile, leading to widening inequality in diabetes incidence in later years.Fig. 2

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

ABSTRACT

Aims/hypothesis: The relative contribution of increasing incidence and declining mortality to increasing prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Scotland is unclear. Trends in incidence and mortality rates are described for type 2 diabetes in Scotland between 2004 and 2013 by age, sex and socioeconomic deprivation.

Methods: Data for incident and prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes were obtained from the Scottish national diabetes register with number of deaths identified from linkage to mortality records. Population size and death data for Scotland by age, sex and socioeconomic deprivation were obtained from National Records of Scotland. Age- and sex-specific incidence and mortality rates stratified by year and deciles of socioeconomic status were calculated using Poisson models.

Results: There were 180,290 incident cases of type 2 diabetes in Scotland between 2004 and 2013. Overall, incidence of type 2 diabetes remained stable over time and was 4.88 (95% CI 4.84, 4.90) and 3.33 (3.28, 3.32) per 1000 in men and women, respectively. However, incidence increased among young men, remained stable in young women, and declined in older men and women. Incidence rates declined in all socioeconomic groups but increased after 2008 in the most deprived groups. Standardised mortality ratios associated with diabetes, adjusted for age and socioeconomic group, were 1.38 (1.36, 1.41) in men and 1.49 (1.45, 1.52) in women, and remained constant over time.

Conclusions/interpretation: Incidence of type 2 diabetes has stabilised in recent years suggesting that increasing prevalence may be primarily attributed to declining mortality. Prevention of type 2 diabetes remains important, particularly among socioeconomically deprived populations.

Electronic supplementary material: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00125-016-4054-9) contains peer-reviewed but unedited supplementary material, which is available to authorised users.

No MeSH data available.