Limits...
The Intrinsic Estimator, Alternative Estimates, and Predictions of Mortality Trends: A Comment on Masters, Hummer, Powers, Beck, Lin, and Finch

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

ABSTRACT

In this article, we discuss a study by Masters et al. (2014), published in Demography. Masters and associates estimated age, period, and cohort (APC) effects on U.S. mortality rates between 1959 and 2009 using the intrinsic estimator (IE). We first argue that before applying the IE, a grounded theoretical justification is needed for its fundamental constraint on minimum variance of the estimates. We next demonstrate IE’s high sensitivity to the type of dummy parameterization used to obtain the estimates. Finally, we discuss challenges in the interpretation of APC models. Our comments are not restricted to the article in question but pertain generally to any research that uses the IE.

No MeSH data available.


IE default (Masters et al. 2014: figure 1) estimated all-cause mortality rates in black and white females, for cohort (at ages 60–64, and period 1975–1979)
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection


getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC5016552&req=5

Fig3: IE default (Masters et al. 2014: figure 1) estimated all-cause mortality rates in black and white females, for cohort (at ages 60–64, and period 1975–1979)

Mentions: For example, Masters et al. (2014) showed the temporal trends in estimated mortality rates across birth cohorts 1885–1990 for age 60–64 and period 1975–1979. Obviously, in that combination of period and age group, one can observe only the cohort group 1910–1919 and not the entire birth range of 1885–1990. For ease of comparison, in Fig. 3 we display part of Masters et al.’s first figure (p. 2058).Fig. 3


The Intrinsic Estimator, Alternative Estimates, and Predictions of Mortality Trends: A Comment on Masters, Hummer, Powers, Beck, Lin, and Finch
IE default (Masters et al. 2014: figure 1) estimated all-cause mortality rates in black and white females, for cohort (at ages 60–64, and period 1975–1979)
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC5016552&req=5

Fig3: IE default (Masters et al. 2014: figure 1) estimated all-cause mortality rates in black and white females, for cohort (at ages 60–64, and period 1975–1979)
Mentions: For example, Masters et al. (2014) showed the temporal trends in estimated mortality rates across birth cohorts 1885–1990 for age 60–64 and period 1975–1979. Obviously, in that combination of period and age group, one can observe only the cohort group 1910–1919 and not the entire birth range of 1885–1990. For ease of comparison, in Fig. 3 we display part of Masters et al.’s first figure (p. 2058).Fig. 3

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

ABSTRACT

In this article, we discuss a study by Masters et al. (2014), published in Demography. Masters and associates estimated age, period, and cohort (APC) effects on U.S. mortality rates between 1959 and 2009 using the intrinsic estimator (IE). We first argue that before applying the IE, a grounded theoretical justification is needed for its fundamental constraint on minimum variance of the estimates. We next demonstrate IE’s high sensitivity to the type of dummy parameterization used to obtain the estimates. Finally, we discuss challenges in the interpretation of APC models. Our comments are not restricted to the article in question but pertain generally to any research that uses the IE.

No MeSH data available.