Limits...
Estimating true hospital morbidity of complications associated with mumps outbreak, England, 2004/05

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

ABSTRACT

Mumps outbreaks in highly vaccinated populations continue to be reported globally. Therefore, quantifying the burden of mumps morbidity accurately will be necessary to better assess the impact of mumps vaccination programmes. We aim to estimate the true morbidity resulting from mumps complications in terms of hospitalised orchitis, meningitis, oophoritis and pancreatitis in England during the outbreak in 2004/05. This outbreak in England led to a clear increase in hospitalisations coded to mumps for complications of orchitis in those born in the 1970s and 1980s and possibly for meningitis in those born in the 1980s. A simple statistical model, based on analysing time trends for diagnosed complications in hospital databases with routine laboratory surveillance data, found that the actual morbidity was much higher. There were 2.5 times (166 cases) more mumps orchitis cases in the 1970s cohort and 2.0 times (708 cases) more mumps orchitis cases in the 1980s cohort than complications coded to mumps in hospital databases. Our study demonstrated that the mumps outbreak in England 2004/05 resulted in a substantial increase in hospitalised mumps complications, and the model we used can improve the ascertainment of morbidity from a mumps outbreak.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Regression model of hospitalised orchitis (A and B) and hospitalised meningitis cases (C), England, April 2002–March 2006
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4998425&req=5

f2: Regression model of hospitalised orchitis (A and B) and hospitalised meningitis cases (C), England, April 2002–March 2006

Mentions: The number of hospital admissions for orchitis in the 70s and 80s birth cohorts peaked in 2004/05 coinciding with the peak of the mumps outbreak (Figure 2). Looking at the raw data, there also appeared to be a slight increase in hospitalisations for meningitis cases at this time in people born in the 80s (Figure 2C). However, the model did not demonstrate any statistically significant increase over the period. None of the other hospital records of orchitis, meningitis, oophoritis and pancreatitis by birth cohort showed any obvious spikes coinciding with the increase in laboratory confirmed mumps cases.


Estimating true hospital morbidity of complications associated with mumps outbreak, England, 2004/05
Regression model of hospitalised orchitis (A and B) and hospitalised meningitis cases (C), England, April 2002–March 2006
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4998425&req=5

f2: Regression model of hospitalised orchitis (A and B) and hospitalised meningitis cases (C), England, April 2002–March 2006
Mentions: The number of hospital admissions for orchitis in the 70s and 80s birth cohorts peaked in 2004/05 coinciding with the peak of the mumps outbreak (Figure 2). Looking at the raw data, there also appeared to be a slight increase in hospitalisations for meningitis cases at this time in people born in the 80s (Figure 2C). However, the model did not demonstrate any statistically significant increase over the period. None of the other hospital records of orchitis, meningitis, oophoritis and pancreatitis by birth cohort showed any obvious spikes coinciding with the increase in laboratory confirmed mumps cases.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

ABSTRACT

Mumps outbreaks in highly vaccinated populations continue to be reported globally. Therefore, quantifying the burden of mumps morbidity accurately will be necessary to better assess the impact of mumps vaccination programmes. We aim to estimate the true morbidity resulting from mumps complications in terms of hospitalised orchitis, meningitis, oophoritis and pancreatitis in England during the outbreak in 2004/05. This outbreak in England led to a clear increase in hospitalisations coded to mumps for complications of orchitis in those born in the 1970s and 1980s and possibly for meningitis in those born in the 1980s. A simple statistical model, based on analysing time trends for diagnosed complications in hospital databases with routine laboratory surveillance data, found that the actual morbidity was much higher. There were 2.5 times (166 cases) more mumps orchitis cases in the 1970s cohort and 2.0 times (708 cases) more mumps orchitis cases in the 1980s cohort than complications coded to mumps in hospital databases. Our study demonstrated that the mumps outbreak in England 2004/05 resulted in a substantial increase in hospitalised mumps complications, and the model we used can improve the ascertainment of morbidity from a mumps outbreak.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus