Limits...
Temperature-related mortality estimates after accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollution in an urban area.

Stanišić Stojić S, Stanišić N, Stojić A - Environ Health (2016)

Bottom Line: After accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollutants, the risk associated with cold temperatures was significantly lower and the overall temperature-attributable risk decreased from 8.80 to 3.00 %.Furthermore, the optimum range of temperature, within which no excess temperature-related mortality is expected to occur, was very broad, between -5 and 21 °C, which differs from the previous findings that most of the attributable deaths were associated with mild temperatures.The results also showed that the estimated relative importance of PM10 was the smallest of four examined pollutant species, and thus, including PM10 data only is clearly not the most effective way to control for the effects of air pollution.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Faculty of Physical Chemistry, University of Belgrade, Studentski Trg 12-16, 11000, Belgrade, Serbia. sstanisic@singidunum.ac.rs.

ABSTRACT

Background: To propose a new method for including the cumulative mid-term effects of air pollution in the traditional Poisson regression model and compare the temperature-related mortality risk estimates, before and after including air pollution data.

Results: The analysis comprised a total of 56,920 residents aged 65 years or older who died from circulatory and respiratory diseases in Belgrade, Serbia, and daily mean PM10, NO2, SO2 and soot concentrations obtained for the period 2009-2014. After accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollutants, the risk associated with cold temperatures was significantly lower and the overall temperature-attributable risk decreased from 8.80 to 3.00 %. Furthermore, the optimum range of temperature, within which no excess temperature-related mortality is expected to occur, was very broad, between -5 and 21 °C, which differs from the previous findings that most of the attributable deaths were associated with mild temperatures.

Conclusions: These results suggest that, in polluted areas of developing countries, most of the mortality risk, previously attributed to cold temperatures, can be explained by the mid-term effects of air pollution. The results also showed that the estimated relative importance of PM10 was the smallest of four examined pollutant species, and thus, including PM10 data only is clearly not the most effective way to control for the effects of air pollution.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Model-averaged relevance of terms. Dotted line represents threshold importance
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Fig6: Model-averaged relevance of terms. Dotted line represents threshold importance

Mentions: Furthermore, it could be assumed that the effects attributed to NO2 exposure are not realistic, but rather a result of omitted variable bias, which is even more likely taking into account its considerable relative importance (Fig. 6), which was highest of all species. Likewise, Brook et al. [22] reported surprisingly strong relationship between NO2 and non-accidental mortality across 10 cities in Canada. They assumed that NO2 concentrations were acting as an indicator of some other variable or process, because NO2 levels exhibit high correlations in time and space with a range of toxic traffic-related species, including volatile organic compounds and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, which could also contribute to the observed effects.


Temperature-related mortality estimates after accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollution in an urban area.

Stanišić Stojić S, Stanišić N, Stojić A - Environ Health (2016)

Model-averaged relevance of terms. Dotted line represents threshold importance
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License 1 - License 2
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4940758&req=5

Fig6: Model-averaged relevance of terms. Dotted line represents threshold importance
Mentions: Furthermore, it could be assumed that the effects attributed to NO2 exposure are not realistic, but rather a result of omitted variable bias, which is even more likely taking into account its considerable relative importance (Fig. 6), which was highest of all species. Likewise, Brook et al. [22] reported surprisingly strong relationship between NO2 and non-accidental mortality across 10 cities in Canada. They assumed that NO2 concentrations were acting as an indicator of some other variable or process, because NO2 levels exhibit high correlations in time and space with a range of toxic traffic-related species, including volatile organic compounds and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, which could also contribute to the observed effects.

Bottom Line: After accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollutants, the risk associated with cold temperatures was significantly lower and the overall temperature-attributable risk decreased from 8.80 to 3.00 %.Furthermore, the optimum range of temperature, within which no excess temperature-related mortality is expected to occur, was very broad, between -5 and 21 °C, which differs from the previous findings that most of the attributable deaths were associated with mild temperatures.The results also showed that the estimated relative importance of PM10 was the smallest of four examined pollutant species, and thus, including PM10 data only is clearly not the most effective way to control for the effects of air pollution.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Faculty of Physical Chemistry, University of Belgrade, Studentski Trg 12-16, 11000, Belgrade, Serbia. sstanisic@singidunum.ac.rs.

ABSTRACT

Background: To propose a new method for including the cumulative mid-term effects of air pollution in the traditional Poisson regression model and compare the temperature-related mortality risk estimates, before and after including air pollution data.

Results: The analysis comprised a total of 56,920 residents aged 65 years or older who died from circulatory and respiratory diseases in Belgrade, Serbia, and daily mean PM10, NO2, SO2 and soot concentrations obtained for the period 2009-2014. After accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollutants, the risk associated with cold temperatures was significantly lower and the overall temperature-attributable risk decreased from 8.80 to 3.00 %. Furthermore, the optimum range of temperature, within which no excess temperature-related mortality is expected to occur, was very broad, between -5 and 21 °C, which differs from the previous findings that most of the attributable deaths were associated with mild temperatures.

Conclusions: These results suggest that, in polluted areas of developing countries, most of the mortality risk, previously attributed to cold temperatures, can be explained by the mid-term effects of air pollution. The results also showed that the estimated relative importance of PM10 was the smallest of four examined pollutant species, and thus, including PM10 data only is clearly not the most effective way to control for the effects of air pollution.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus