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Temperature-related mortality estimates after accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollution in an urban area.

Stanišić Stojić S, Stanišić N, Stojić A - Environ Health (2016)

Bottom Line: After accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollutants, the risk associated with cold temperatures was significantly lower and the overall temperature-attributable risk decreased from 8.80 to 3.00 %.Furthermore, the optimum range of temperature, within which no excess temperature-related mortality is expected to occur, was very broad, between -5 and 21 °C, which differs from the previous findings that most of the attributable deaths were associated with mild temperatures.The results also showed that the estimated relative importance of PM10 was the smallest of four examined pollutant species, and thus, including PM10 data only is clearly not the most effective way to control for the effects of air pollution.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Faculty of Physical Chemistry, University of Belgrade, Studentski Trg 12-16, 11000, Belgrade, Serbia. sstanisic@singidunum.ac.rs.

ABSTRACT

Background: To propose a new method for including the cumulative mid-term effects of air pollution in the traditional Poisson regression model and compare the temperature-related mortality risk estimates, before and after including air pollution data.

Results: The analysis comprised a total of 56,920 residents aged 65 years or older who died from circulatory and respiratory diseases in Belgrade, Serbia, and daily mean PM10, NO2, SO2 and soot concentrations obtained for the period 2009-2014. After accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollutants, the risk associated with cold temperatures was significantly lower and the overall temperature-attributable risk decreased from 8.80 to 3.00 %. Furthermore, the optimum range of temperature, within which no excess temperature-related mortality is expected to occur, was very broad, between -5 and 21 °C, which differs from the previous findings that most of the attributable deaths were associated with mild temperatures.

Conclusions: These results suggest that, in polluted areas of developing countries, most of the mortality risk, previously attributed to cold temperatures, can be explained by the mid-term effects of air pollution. The results also showed that the estimated relative importance of PM10 was the smallest of four examined pollutant species, and thus, including PM10 data only is clearly not the most effective way to control for the effects of air pollution.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

The procedure for including air pollutants in the final model. The estimation of the timeframe-specific relative risk was repeated each time after exclusion of the pollutant with the most clear harvesting effect pattern. Dotted lines refer to timeframes that are associated with highest positive or negative relative risk
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Fig4: The procedure for including air pollutants in the final model. The estimation of the timeframe-specific relative risk was repeated each time after exclusion of the pollutant with the most clear harvesting effect pattern. Dotted lines refer to timeframes that are associated with highest positive or negative relative risk

Mentions: As certain pattern deviations were expected due to strong correlations (referring to SMA values and not daily observations), we included the pollutants in sequence iteratively, giving priority to those with stronger effects (as estimated by the assessed relative risk) and clearer temporal patterns of these effects. Figure 4 shows the procedure for determining the order of pollutant inclusion in the final model. Lags 0–60 refer to timeframes for which the relative risk was estimated by including one by one timeframe-specific SMA pollutant concentration in the model. As can be seen, once the clear harvesting effect pattern had been identified and attributed to a specific pollutant, the pollutant was added to the final model, and the estimation of the relative risk was repeated for the remaining pollutants.Fig. 4


Temperature-related mortality estimates after accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollution in an urban area.

Stanišić Stojić S, Stanišić N, Stojić A - Environ Health (2016)

The procedure for including air pollutants in the final model. The estimation of the timeframe-specific relative risk was repeated each time after exclusion of the pollutant with the most clear harvesting effect pattern. Dotted lines refer to timeframes that are associated with highest positive or negative relative risk
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License 1 - License 2
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4940758&req=5

Fig4: The procedure for including air pollutants in the final model. The estimation of the timeframe-specific relative risk was repeated each time after exclusion of the pollutant with the most clear harvesting effect pattern. Dotted lines refer to timeframes that are associated with highest positive or negative relative risk
Mentions: As certain pattern deviations were expected due to strong correlations (referring to SMA values and not daily observations), we included the pollutants in sequence iteratively, giving priority to those with stronger effects (as estimated by the assessed relative risk) and clearer temporal patterns of these effects. Figure 4 shows the procedure for determining the order of pollutant inclusion in the final model. Lags 0–60 refer to timeframes for which the relative risk was estimated by including one by one timeframe-specific SMA pollutant concentration in the model. As can be seen, once the clear harvesting effect pattern had been identified and attributed to a specific pollutant, the pollutant was added to the final model, and the estimation of the relative risk was repeated for the remaining pollutants.Fig. 4

Bottom Line: After accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollutants, the risk associated with cold temperatures was significantly lower and the overall temperature-attributable risk decreased from 8.80 to 3.00 %.Furthermore, the optimum range of temperature, within which no excess temperature-related mortality is expected to occur, was very broad, between -5 and 21 °C, which differs from the previous findings that most of the attributable deaths were associated with mild temperatures.The results also showed that the estimated relative importance of PM10 was the smallest of four examined pollutant species, and thus, including PM10 data only is clearly not the most effective way to control for the effects of air pollution.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Faculty of Physical Chemistry, University of Belgrade, Studentski Trg 12-16, 11000, Belgrade, Serbia. sstanisic@singidunum.ac.rs.

ABSTRACT

Background: To propose a new method for including the cumulative mid-term effects of air pollution in the traditional Poisson regression model and compare the temperature-related mortality risk estimates, before and after including air pollution data.

Results: The analysis comprised a total of 56,920 residents aged 65 years or older who died from circulatory and respiratory diseases in Belgrade, Serbia, and daily mean PM10, NO2, SO2 and soot concentrations obtained for the period 2009-2014. After accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollutants, the risk associated with cold temperatures was significantly lower and the overall temperature-attributable risk decreased from 8.80 to 3.00 %. Furthermore, the optimum range of temperature, within which no excess temperature-related mortality is expected to occur, was very broad, between -5 and 21 °C, which differs from the previous findings that most of the attributable deaths were associated with mild temperatures.

Conclusions: These results suggest that, in polluted areas of developing countries, most of the mortality risk, previously attributed to cold temperatures, can be explained by the mid-term effects of air pollution. The results also showed that the estimated relative importance of PM10 was the smallest of four examined pollutant species, and thus, including PM10 data only is clearly not the most effective way to control for the effects of air pollution.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus