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Temperature-related mortality estimates after accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollution in an urban area.

Stanišić Stojić S, Stanišić N, Stojić A - Environ Health (2016)

Bottom Line: After accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollutants, the risk associated with cold temperatures was significantly lower and the overall temperature-attributable risk decreased from 8.80 to 3.00 %.Furthermore, the optimum range of temperature, within which no excess temperature-related mortality is expected to occur, was very broad, between -5 and 21 °C, which differs from the previous findings that most of the attributable deaths were associated with mild temperatures.The results also showed that the estimated relative importance of PM10 was the smallest of four examined pollutant species, and thus, including PM10 data only is clearly not the most effective way to control for the effects of air pollution.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Faculty of Physical Chemistry, University of Belgrade, Studentski Trg 12-16, 11000, Belgrade, Serbia. sstanisic@singidunum.ac.rs.

ABSTRACT

Background: To propose a new method for including the cumulative mid-term effects of air pollution in the traditional Poisson regression model and compare the temperature-related mortality risk estimates, before and after including air pollution data.

Results: The analysis comprised a total of 56,920 residents aged 65 years or older who died from circulatory and respiratory diseases in Belgrade, Serbia, and daily mean PM10, NO2, SO2 and soot concentrations obtained for the period 2009-2014. After accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollutants, the risk associated with cold temperatures was significantly lower and the overall temperature-attributable risk decreased from 8.80 to 3.00 %. Furthermore, the optimum range of temperature, within which no excess temperature-related mortality is expected to occur, was very broad, between -5 and 21 °C, which differs from the previous findings that most of the attributable deaths were associated with mild temperatures.

Conclusions: These results suggest that, in polluted areas of developing countries, most of the mortality risk, previously attributed to cold temperatures, can be explained by the mid-term effects of air pollution. The results also showed that the estimated relative importance of PM10 was the smallest of four examined pollutant species, and thus, including PM10 data only is clearly not the most effective way to control for the effects of air pollution.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Overall cumulative exposure-response curve and temperature distribution in Belgrade 2009–2014. Dotted and dashed lines represent optimum and extreme temperatures, respectively
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Fig3: Overall cumulative exposure-response curve and temperature distribution in Belgrade 2009–2014. Dotted and dashed lines represent optimum and extreme temperatures, respectively

Mentions: As regards the cumulative effects of temperature over the entire lag period, the U-shaped exposure-response curve was identified as the most representative. The minimum relative risk corresponding to the optimum temperature of 21 °C is presented in Fig. 3 as a dotted line, whereas the cut-off values at the 1st and 99th percentile of the temperature distribution, which stand for extreme cold and heat, are displayed as dashed vertical lines.Fig. 3


Temperature-related mortality estimates after accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollution in an urban area.

Stanišić Stojić S, Stanišić N, Stojić A - Environ Health (2016)

Overall cumulative exposure-response curve and temperature distribution in Belgrade 2009–2014. Dotted and dashed lines represent optimum and extreme temperatures, respectively
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License 1 - License 2
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4940758&req=5

Fig3: Overall cumulative exposure-response curve and temperature distribution in Belgrade 2009–2014. Dotted and dashed lines represent optimum and extreme temperatures, respectively
Mentions: As regards the cumulative effects of temperature over the entire lag period, the U-shaped exposure-response curve was identified as the most representative. The minimum relative risk corresponding to the optimum temperature of 21 °C is presented in Fig. 3 as a dotted line, whereas the cut-off values at the 1st and 99th percentile of the temperature distribution, which stand for extreme cold and heat, are displayed as dashed vertical lines.Fig. 3

Bottom Line: After accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollutants, the risk associated with cold temperatures was significantly lower and the overall temperature-attributable risk decreased from 8.80 to 3.00 %.Furthermore, the optimum range of temperature, within which no excess temperature-related mortality is expected to occur, was very broad, between -5 and 21 °C, which differs from the previous findings that most of the attributable deaths were associated with mild temperatures.The results also showed that the estimated relative importance of PM10 was the smallest of four examined pollutant species, and thus, including PM10 data only is clearly not the most effective way to control for the effects of air pollution.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Faculty of Physical Chemistry, University of Belgrade, Studentski Trg 12-16, 11000, Belgrade, Serbia. sstanisic@singidunum.ac.rs.

ABSTRACT

Background: To propose a new method for including the cumulative mid-term effects of air pollution in the traditional Poisson regression model and compare the temperature-related mortality risk estimates, before and after including air pollution data.

Results: The analysis comprised a total of 56,920 residents aged 65 years or older who died from circulatory and respiratory diseases in Belgrade, Serbia, and daily mean PM10, NO2, SO2 and soot concentrations obtained for the period 2009-2014. After accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollutants, the risk associated with cold temperatures was significantly lower and the overall temperature-attributable risk decreased from 8.80 to 3.00 %. Furthermore, the optimum range of temperature, within which no excess temperature-related mortality is expected to occur, was very broad, between -5 and 21 °C, which differs from the previous findings that most of the attributable deaths were associated with mild temperatures.

Conclusions: These results suggest that, in polluted areas of developing countries, most of the mortality risk, previously attributed to cold temperatures, can be explained by the mid-term effects of air pollution. The results also showed that the estimated relative importance of PM10 was the smallest of four examined pollutant species, and thus, including PM10 data only is clearly not the most effective way to control for the effects of air pollution.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus