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Temperature-related mortality estimates after accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollution in an urban area.

Stanišić Stojić S, Stanišić N, Stojić A - Environ Health (2016)

Bottom Line: After accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollutants, the risk associated with cold temperatures was significantly lower and the overall temperature-attributable risk decreased from 8.80 to 3.00 %.Furthermore, the optimum range of temperature, within which no excess temperature-related mortality is expected to occur, was very broad, between -5 and 21 °C, which differs from the previous findings that most of the attributable deaths were associated with mild temperatures.The results also showed that the estimated relative importance of PM10 was the smallest of four examined pollutant species, and thus, including PM10 data only is clearly not the most effective way to control for the effects of air pollution.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Faculty of Physical Chemistry, University of Belgrade, Studentski Trg 12-16, 11000, Belgrade, Serbia. sstanisic@singidunum.ac.rs.

ABSTRACT

Background: To propose a new method for including the cumulative mid-term effects of air pollution in the traditional Poisson regression model and compare the temperature-related mortality risk estimates, before and after including air pollution data.

Results: The analysis comprised a total of 56,920 residents aged 65 years or older who died from circulatory and respiratory diseases in Belgrade, Serbia, and daily mean PM10, NO2, SO2 and soot concentrations obtained for the period 2009-2014. After accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollutants, the risk associated with cold temperatures was significantly lower and the overall temperature-attributable risk decreased from 8.80 to 3.00 %. Furthermore, the optimum range of temperature, within which no excess temperature-related mortality is expected to occur, was very broad, between -5 and 21 °C, which differs from the previous findings that most of the attributable deaths were associated with mild temperatures.

Conclusions: These results suggest that, in polluted areas of developing countries, most of the mortality risk, previously attributed to cold temperatures, can be explained by the mid-term effects of air pollution. The results also showed that the estimated relative importance of PM10 was the smallest of four examined pollutant species, and thus, including PM10 data only is clearly not the most effective way to control for the effects of air pollution.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Plot of the exposure-lag-response relationship between temperature and all-cause mortality, with reference at 21 °C. The effects of heat are observed on the same day or after 1–3 days, whereas the effects of cold were distributed across few days of exposure
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Fig2: Plot of the exposure-lag-response relationship between temperature and all-cause mortality, with reference at 21 °C. The effects of heat are observed on the same day or after 1–3 days, whereas the effects of cold were distributed across few days of exposure

Mentions: The lag-specific effects of temperature on mortality obtained from the base model are provided in Fig. 2. As can be seen, the heat-related mortality appears to be an acute event followed by a reduction in death rates, with maximum effects observed on the same day or lags of 1–3 days. Nevertheless, the effects of cold spells were observed to be more evenly distributed across 3–6 days of exposure with less evidence of subsequent harvesting, which complies with previous studies reporting sustained health effects of low temperatures [18].Fig. 2


Temperature-related mortality estimates after accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollution in an urban area.

Stanišić Stojić S, Stanišić N, Stojić A - Environ Health (2016)

Plot of the exposure-lag-response relationship between temperature and all-cause mortality, with reference at 21 °C. The effects of heat are observed on the same day or after 1–3 days, whereas the effects of cold were distributed across few days of exposure
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License 1 - License 2
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4940758&req=5

Fig2: Plot of the exposure-lag-response relationship between temperature and all-cause mortality, with reference at 21 °C. The effects of heat are observed on the same day or after 1–3 days, whereas the effects of cold were distributed across few days of exposure
Mentions: The lag-specific effects of temperature on mortality obtained from the base model are provided in Fig. 2. As can be seen, the heat-related mortality appears to be an acute event followed by a reduction in death rates, with maximum effects observed on the same day or lags of 1–3 days. Nevertheless, the effects of cold spells were observed to be more evenly distributed across 3–6 days of exposure with less evidence of subsequent harvesting, which complies with previous studies reporting sustained health effects of low temperatures [18].Fig. 2

Bottom Line: After accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollutants, the risk associated with cold temperatures was significantly lower and the overall temperature-attributable risk decreased from 8.80 to 3.00 %.Furthermore, the optimum range of temperature, within which no excess temperature-related mortality is expected to occur, was very broad, between -5 and 21 °C, which differs from the previous findings that most of the attributable deaths were associated with mild temperatures.The results also showed that the estimated relative importance of PM10 was the smallest of four examined pollutant species, and thus, including PM10 data only is clearly not the most effective way to control for the effects of air pollution.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Faculty of Physical Chemistry, University of Belgrade, Studentski Trg 12-16, 11000, Belgrade, Serbia. sstanisic@singidunum.ac.rs.

ABSTRACT

Background: To propose a new method for including the cumulative mid-term effects of air pollution in the traditional Poisson regression model and compare the temperature-related mortality risk estimates, before and after including air pollution data.

Results: The analysis comprised a total of 56,920 residents aged 65 years or older who died from circulatory and respiratory diseases in Belgrade, Serbia, and daily mean PM10, NO2, SO2 and soot concentrations obtained for the period 2009-2014. After accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollutants, the risk associated with cold temperatures was significantly lower and the overall temperature-attributable risk decreased from 8.80 to 3.00 %. Furthermore, the optimum range of temperature, within which no excess temperature-related mortality is expected to occur, was very broad, between -5 and 21 °C, which differs from the previous findings that most of the attributable deaths were associated with mild temperatures.

Conclusions: These results suggest that, in polluted areas of developing countries, most of the mortality risk, previously attributed to cold temperatures, can be explained by the mid-term effects of air pollution. The results also showed that the estimated relative importance of PM10 was the smallest of four examined pollutant species, and thus, including PM10 data only is clearly not the most effective way to control for the effects of air pollution.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus