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Spatial expansions and travelling waves of rabies in vampire bats

View Article: PubMed Central

ABSTRACT

A major obstacle to anticipating the cross-species transmission of zoonotic diseases and developing novel strategies for their control is the scarcity of data informing how these pathogens circulate within natural reservoir populations. Vampire bats are the primary reservoir of rabies in Latin America, where the disease remains among the most important viral zoonoses affecting humans and livestock. Unpredictable spatiotemporal dynamics of rabies within bat populations have precluded anticipation of outbreaks and undermined widespread bat culling programs. By analysing 1146 vampire bat-transmitted rabies (VBR) outbreaks in livestock across 12 years in Peru, we demonstrate that viral expansions into historically uninfected zones have doubled the recent burden of VBR. Viral expansions are geographically widespread, but severely constrained by high elevation peaks in the Andes mountains. Within Andean valleys, invasions form wavefronts that are advancing towards large, unvaccinated livestock populations that are heavily bitten by bats, which together will fuel high transmission and mortality. Using spatial models, we forecast the pathways of ongoing VBR epizootics across heterogeneous landscapes. These results directly inform vaccination strategies to mitigate impending viral emergence, reveal VBR as an emerging rather than an enzootic disease and create opportunities to test novel interventions to manage viruses in bat reservoirs.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Changes in the geographical elevation of rabies outbreaks in each region. Each panel shows the annual distribution of the elevation of observed outbreaks in each region between 2003 and 2014. Regions are sorted by decreasing order of average elevation. Boxplots show median, second and third quartiles, whereas grey dots present the raw data. Asterisks highlight regions where increases in outbreak elevation were significant in our GLM (p < 0.05). (Online version in colour.)
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RSPB20160328F3: Changes in the geographical elevation of rabies outbreaks in each region. Each panel shows the annual distribution of the elevation of observed outbreaks in each region between 2003 and 2014. Regions are sorted by decreasing order of average elevation. Boxplots show median, second and third quartiles, whereas grey dots present the raw data. Asterisks highlight regions where increases in outbreak elevation were significant in our GLM (p < 0.05). (Online version in colour.)

Mentions: Significant increases in the elevation of VBR outbreaks occurred in regions containing transitions from the Amazon rainforest into the Andes mountains (i.e. Cusco, Cajamarca, San Martin and Ucayali). By contrast, the mean elevation of rabies outbreaks was unchanged in regions with only high (i.e. Apurimac and Ayacucho in the Andes) and low (i.e. Madre de Dios and Loreto in the Amazon) elevations (figure 3). The model with a region by year interaction was more strongly supported than year + region (ΔAIC = 91.2), year alone (ΔAIC = 1790.33) and region alone (ΔAIC = 96.05). Our GLMM showed that, controlling for region as a random effect, the elevation of outbreaks generally increased through time (z-value = 2.93, p < 0.01). However in several regions (e.g. Ayacucho, Cusco), the minimum elevation of outbreaks decreased through time concurrently with increases in the maximum elevation of outbreaks, creating a funnel pattern which indicates that downhill invasions also occurred (figure 3).Figure 3.


Spatial expansions and travelling waves of rabies in vampire bats
Changes in the geographical elevation of rabies outbreaks in each region. Each panel shows the annual distribution of the elevation of observed outbreaks in each region between 2003 and 2014. Regions are sorted by decreasing order of average elevation. Boxplots show median, second and third quartiles, whereas grey dots present the raw data. Asterisks highlight regions where increases in outbreak elevation were significant in our GLM (p < 0.05). (Online version in colour.)
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4920313&req=5

RSPB20160328F3: Changes in the geographical elevation of rabies outbreaks in each region. Each panel shows the annual distribution of the elevation of observed outbreaks in each region between 2003 and 2014. Regions are sorted by decreasing order of average elevation. Boxplots show median, second and third quartiles, whereas grey dots present the raw data. Asterisks highlight regions where increases in outbreak elevation were significant in our GLM (p < 0.05). (Online version in colour.)
Mentions: Significant increases in the elevation of VBR outbreaks occurred in regions containing transitions from the Amazon rainforest into the Andes mountains (i.e. Cusco, Cajamarca, San Martin and Ucayali). By contrast, the mean elevation of rabies outbreaks was unchanged in regions with only high (i.e. Apurimac and Ayacucho in the Andes) and low (i.e. Madre de Dios and Loreto in the Amazon) elevations (figure 3). The model with a region by year interaction was more strongly supported than year + region (ΔAIC = 91.2), year alone (ΔAIC = 1790.33) and region alone (ΔAIC = 96.05). Our GLMM showed that, controlling for region as a random effect, the elevation of outbreaks generally increased through time (z-value = 2.93, p < 0.01). However in several regions (e.g. Ayacucho, Cusco), the minimum elevation of outbreaks decreased through time concurrently with increases in the maximum elevation of outbreaks, creating a funnel pattern which indicates that downhill invasions also occurred (figure 3).Figure 3.

View Article: PubMed Central

ABSTRACT

A major obstacle to anticipating the cross-species transmission of zoonotic diseases and developing novel strategies for their control is the scarcity of data informing how these pathogens circulate within natural reservoir populations. Vampire bats are the primary reservoir of rabies in Latin America, where the disease remains among the most important viral zoonoses affecting humans and livestock. Unpredictable spatiotemporal dynamics of rabies within bat populations have precluded anticipation of outbreaks and undermined widespread bat culling programs. By analysing 1146 vampire bat-transmitted rabies (VBR) outbreaks in livestock across 12 years in Peru, we demonstrate that viral expansions into historically uninfected zones have doubled the recent burden of VBR. Viral expansions are geographically widespread, but severely constrained by high elevation peaks in the Andes mountains. Within Andean valleys, invasions form wavefronts that are advancing towards large, unvaccinated livestock populations that are heavily bitten by bats, which together will fuel high transmission and mortality. Using spatial models, we forecast the pathways of ongoing VBR epizootics across heterogeneous landscapes. These results directly inform vaccination strategies to mitigate impending viral emergence, reveal VBR as an emerging rather than an enzootic disease and create opportunities to test novel interventions to manage viruses in bat reservoirs.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus