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Estimating the future burden of cardiovascular disease and the value of lipid and blood pressure control therapies in China.

Stevens W, Peneva D, Li JZ, Liu LZ, Liu G, Gao R, Lakdawalla DN - BMC Health Serv Res (2016)

Bottom Line: In light of its aging population and epidemiological transition, China faces near-certain increases in CVD morbidity and mortality.Preventative measures such as effective lipid and blood pressure management may reduce CVD burden substantially and provide large social value.While the Chinese government is implementing more systematic approaches to health care delivery, prevention of CVD should be high on the agenda.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Precision Health Economics, Oakland, CA, USA. warren.stevens@pheconomics.com.

ABSTRACT

Background: Lifestyle and dietary changes reflect an ongoing epidemiological transition in China, with cardiovascular disease (CVD) playing an ever-increasing role in China's disease burden. This study assessed the burden of CVD and the potential value of lipid and blood pressure control strategies in China.

Methods: We estimated the likely burden of CVD between 2016 and 2030 and how expanded use of lipid lowering and blood pressure control medication would impact that burden in the next 15 years. Accounting for the costs of drug use, we assessed the net social value of a policy that expands the utilization of lipid and blood pressure lowering therapies in China.

Results: Rises in prevalence of CVD risk and population aging would likely increase the incidence of acute myocardial infarctions (AMIs) by 75 million and strokes by 118 million, while the number of CVD deaths would rise by 39 million in total between 2016 and 2030. Universal treatment of hypertension and dyslipidemia patients with lipid and blood pressure lowering therapies could avert between 10 and 20 million AMIs, between 8 and 30 million strokes, and between 3 and 10 million CVD deaths during the 2016-2030 period, producing a positive social value net of health care costs as high as $932 billion.

Conclusions: In light of its aging population and epidemiological transition, China faces near-certain increases in CVD morbidity and mortality. Preventative measures such as effective lipid and blood pressure management may reduce CVD burden substantially and provide large social value. While the Chinese government is implementing more systematic approaches to health care delivery, prevention of CVD should be high on the agenda.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Estimates of total number of strokes under different treatment policy scenarios (2016–2030). Notes: Data are based on authors’ calculations
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Fig3: Estimates of total number of strokes under different treatment policy scenarios (2016–2030). Notes: Data are based on authors’ calculations

Mentions: When we applied the LDL-C shifting model, under the assumption that all people who could benefit from lipid lowering therapy do so, we predicted that the potential number of AMIs that could be avoided would be between 450,000 and 850,000 per year between 2016 and 2030. In addition, between 350,000 and 700,000 strokes and between 150,000 and 300,000 CVD deaths could be avoided per year in 2016–2030. Similarly, when we modeled the impact of optimal utilization of blood pressure medication in the Chinese population, we predicted that between 600,000 and 1 million AMIs could be avoided per year, as well as between 1.2 and 2 million strokes and between 350,000 and 600,000 deaths from CVD could be averted in the 2016–2030 period. When we modeled the impact of optimal coverage of both blood pressure and lipid control medication, the resulting events averted were estimated between 1 and 1.65 million for AMIs, 1.4 to 2.5 million for strokes, and 450,000 to 850,000 for deaths from CVD that could be prevented per year in 2016–2030. The impact on overall burden of AMIs, strokes, and CVD deaths as compared to the total burden are shown in Table 3 and Figs. 2, 3 and 4.Table 3


Estimating the future burden of cardiovascular disease and the value of lipid and blood pressure control therapies in China.

Stevens W, Peneva D, Li JZ, Liu LZ, Liu G, Gao R, Lakdawalla DN - BMC Health Serv Res (2016)

Estimates of total number of strokes under different treatment policy scenarios (2016–2030). Notes: Data are based on authors’ calculations
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License 1 - License 2
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4862139&req=5

Fig3: Estimates of total number of strokes under different treatment policy scenarios (2016–2030). Notes: Data are based on authors’ calculations
Mentions: When we applied the LDL-C shifting model, under the assumption that all people who could benefit from lipid lowering therapy do so, we predicted that the potential number of AMIs that could be avoided would be between 450,000 and 850,000 per year between 2016 and 2030. In addition, between 350,000 and 700,000 strokes and between 150,000 and 300,000 CVD deaths could be avoided per year in 2016–2030. Similarly, when we modeled the impact of optimal utilization of blood pressure medication in the Chinese population, we predicted that between 600,000 and 1 million AMIs could be avoided per year, as well as between 1.2 and 2 million strokes and between 350,000 and 600,000 deaths from CVD could be averted in the 2016–2030 period. When we modeled the impact of optimal coverage of both blood pressure and lipid control medication, the resulting events averted were estimated between 1 and 1.65 million for AMIs, 1.4 to 2.5 million for strokes, and 450,000 to 850,000 for deaths from CVD that could be prevented per year in 2016–2030. The impact on overall burden of AMIs, strokes, and CVD deaths as compared to the total burden are shown in Table 3 and Figs. 2, 3 and 4.Table 3

Bottom Line: In light of its aging population and epidemiological transition, China faces near-certain increases in CVD morbidity and mortality.Preventative measures such as effective lipid and blood pressure management may reduce CVD burden substantially and provide large social value.While the Chinese government is implementing more systematic approaches to health care delivery, prevention of CVD should be high on the agenda.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Precision Health Economics, Oakland, CA, USA. warren.stevens@pheconomics.com.

ABSTRACT

Background: Lifestyle and dietary changes reflect an ongoing epidemiological transition in China, with cardiovascular disease (CVD) playing an ever-increasing role in China's disease burden. This study assessed the burden of CVD and the potential value of lipid and blood pressure control strategies in China.

Methods: We estimated the likely burden of CVD between 2016 and 2030 and how expanded use of lipid lowering and blood pressure control medication would impact that burden in the next 15 years. Accounting for the costs of drug use, we assessed the net social value of a policy that expands the utilization of lipid and blood pressure lowering therapies in China.

Results: Rises in prevalence of CVD risk and population aging would likely increase the incidence of acute myocardial infarctions (AMIs) by 75 million and strokes by 118 million, while the number of CVD deaths would rise by 39 million in total between 2016 and 2030. Universal treatment of hypertension and dyslipidemia patients with lipid and blood pressure lowering therapies could avert between 10 and 20 million AMIs, between 8 and 30 million strokes, and between 3 and 10 million CVD deaths during the 2016-2030 period, producing a positive social value net of health care costs as high as $932 billion.

Conclusions: In light of its aging population and epidemiological transition, China faces near-certain increases in CVD morbidity and mortality. Preventative measures such as effective lipid and blood pressure management may reduce CVD burden substantially and provide large social value. While the Chinese government is implementing more systematic approaches to health care delivery, prevention of CVD should be high on the agenda.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus