Limits...
Microclimate Data Improve Predictions of Insect Abundance Models Based on Calibrated Spatiotemporal Temperatures.

Rebaudo F, Faye E, Dangles O - Front Physiol (2016)

Bottom Line: We developed a statistical procedure to calibrate all datasets to monthly and yearly variation in temperatures, while keeping both spatial and temporal variances (air monthly temperature at 1 km² for the WorldClim dataset, air hourly temperature for the weather station, and air minute temperature over 250 m radius disks for the microclimate dataset).We used an additional set of study sites to test the ability of the results of our model to be extrapolated over larger scales.Our simulations therefore stress the importance to consider different temperature datasets depending on the issue to be solved in order to accurately predict species abundances.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Centro de Análisis Espacial, Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Mayor de San AndrésLa Paz, Bolivia; UMR Evolution Génome Comportement et Ecologie, Université Paris-Sud-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique-IRD-Paris-Saclay, Institut de Recherche pour le DéveloppementGif-sur-Yvette, France.

ABSTRACT
A large body of literature has recently recognized the role of microclimates in controlling the physiology and ecology of species, yet the relevance of fine-scale climatic data for modeling species performance and distribution remains a matter of debate. Using a 6-year monitoring of three potato moth species, major crop pests in the tropical Andes, we asked whether the spatiotemporal resolution of temperature data affect the predictions of models of moth performance and distribution. For this, we used three different climatic data sets: (i) the WorldClim dataset (global dataset), (ii) air temperature recorded using data loggers (weather station dataset), and (iii) air crop canopy temperature (microclimate dataset). We developed a statistical procedure to calibrate all datasets to monthly and yearly variation in temperatures, while keeping both spatial and temporal variances (air monthly temperature at 1 km² for the WorldClim dataset, air hourly temperature for the weather station, and air minute temperature over 250 m radius disks for the microclimate dataset). Then, we computed pest performances based on these three datasets. Results for temperature ranging from 9 to 11°C revealed discrepancies in the simulation outputs in both survival and development rates depending on the spatiotemporal resolution of the temperature dataset. Temperature and simulated pest performances were then combined into multiple linear regression models to compare predicted vs. field data. We used an additional set of study sites to test the ability of the results of our model to be extrapolated over larger scales. Results showed that the model implemented with microclimatic data best predicted observed pest abundances for our study sites, but was less accurate than the global dataset model when performed at larger scales. Our simulations therefore stress the importance to consider different temperature datasets depending on the issue to be solved in order to accurately predict species abundances. In conclusion, keeping in mind that the mismatch between the size of organisms and the scale at which climate data are collected and modeled remains a key issue, temperature dataset selection should be balanced by the desired output spatiotemporal scale for better predicting pest dynamics and developing efficient pest management strategies.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Pest abundances and performances for each site based on the three temperature datasets. Pest abundances represent the mean sum of abundances for the three potato moth species. Black triangles display the standard deviations for each month. Performances were computed for each site using the mean values for the three potato moth species. WorldClim dataset based performances are represented as black horizontal bars. Weather stations and Microclimate datasets based performances are represented as red and blue points for the first and third quartiles, and as horizontal bars for the median. Panels (A–D) for the four study sites.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4836147&req=5

Figure 3: Pest abundances and performances for each site based on the three temperature datasets. Pest abundances represent the mean sum of abundances for the three potato moth species. Black triangles display the standard deviations for each month. Performances were computed for each site using the mean values for the three potato moth species. WorldClim dataset based performances are represented as black horizontal bars. Weather stations and Microclimate datasets based performances are represented as red and blue points for the first and third quartiles, and as horizontal bars for the median. Panels (A–D) for the four study sites.

Mentions: Outputs of pest performance models implemented with different temperature datasets (Weather stations and Microclimate vs. WorldClim) were similar for some study sites (e.g., survival rate in Figures 3A,B) but differed for others (e.g., survival rate in Figures 3C,D). For example, at site C, we observed that survival rates predicted using the WorldClim dataset were close to zero for the months of July and August, while both Weather stations and Microclimate models predicted positive survival rates, up to 0.2 on the third quartile (Figure 3C). Moreover, while the WorldClim and the Weather stations datasets resulted in similar performance means, the buffering effect of the Microclimate dataset predicted higher performances, either in terms of survival rate, developmental rate, or fecundity.


Microclimate Data Improve Predictions of Insect Abundance Models Based on Calibrated Spatiotemporal Temperatures.

Rebaudo F, Faye E, Dangles O - Front Physiol (2016)

Pest abundances and performances for each site based on the three temperature datasets. Pest abundances represent the mean sum of abundances for the three potato moth species. Black triangles display the standard deviations for each month. Performances were computed for each site using the mean values for the three potato moth species. WorldClim dataset based performances are represented as black horizontal bars. Weather stations and Microclimate datasets based performances are represented as red and blue points for the first and third quartiles, and as horizontal bars for the median. Panels (A–D) for the four study sites.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4836147&req=5

Figure 3: Pest abundances and performances for each site based on the three temperature datasets. Pest abundances represent the mean sum of abundances for the three potato moth species. Black triangles display the standard deviations for each month. Performances were computed for each site using the mean values for the three potato moth species. WorldClim dataset based performances are represented as black horizontal bars. Weather stations and Microclimate datasets based performances are represented as red and blue points for the first and third quartiles, and as horizontal bars for the median. Panels (A–D) for the four study sites.
Mentions: Outputs of pest performance models implemented with different temperature datasets (Weather stations and Microclimate vs. WorldClim) were similar for some study sites (e.g., survival rate in Figures 3A,B) but differed for others (e.g., survival rate in Figures 3C,D). For example, at site C, we observed that survival rates predicted using the WorldClim dataset were close to zero for the months of July and August, while both Weather stations and Microclimate models predicted positive survival rates, up to 0.2 on the third quartile (Figure 3C). Moreover, while the WorldClim and the Weather stations datasets resulted in similar performance means, the buffering effect of the Microclimate dataset predicted higher performances, either in terms of survival rate, developmental rate, or fecundity.

Bottom Line: We developed a statistical procedure to calibrate all datasets to monthly and yearly variation in temperatures, while keeping both spatial and temporal variances (air monthly temperature at 1 km² for the WorldClim dataset, air hourly temperature for the weather station, and air minute temperature over 250 m radius disks for the microclimate dataset).We used an additional set of study sites to test the ability of the results of our model to be extrapolated over larger scales.Our simulations therefore stress the importance to consider different temperature datasets depending on the issue to be solved in order to accurately predict species abundances.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Centro de Análisis Espacial, Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Mayor de San AndrésLa Paz, Bolivia; UMR Evolution Génome Comportement et Ecologie, Université Paris-Sud-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique-IRD-Paris-Saclay, Institut de Recherche pour le DéveloppementGif-sur-Yvette, France.

ABSTRACT
A large body of literature has recently recognized the role of microclimates in controlling the physiology and ecology of species, yet the relevance of fine-scale climatic data for modeling species performance and distribution remains a matter of debate. Using a 6-year monitoring of three potato moth species, major crop pests in the tropical Andes, we asked whether the spatiotemporal resolution of temperature data affect the predictions of models of moth performance and distribution. For this, we used three different climatic data sets: (i) the WorldClim dataset (global dataset), (ii) air temperature recorded using data loggers (weather station dataset), and (iii) air crop canopy temperature (microclimate dataset). We developed a statistical procedure to calibrate all datasets to monthly and yearly variation in temperatures, while keeping both spatial and temporal variances (air monthly temperature at 1 km² for the WorldClim dataset, air hourly temperature for the weather station, and air minute temperature over 250 m radius disks for the microclimate dataset). Then, we computed pest performances based on these three datasets. Results for temperature ranging from 9 to 11°C revealed discrepancies in the simulation outputs in both survival and development rates depending on the spatiotemporal resolution of the temperature dataset. Temperature and simulated pest performances were then combined into multiple linear regression models to compare predicted vs. field data. We used an additional set of study sites to test the ability of the results of our model to be extrapolated over larger scales. Results showed that the model implemented with microclimatic data best predicted observed pest abundances for our study sites, but was less accurate than the global dataset model when performed at larger scales. Our simulations therefore stress the importance to consider different temperature datasets depending on the issue to be solved in order to accurately predict species abundances. In conclusion, keeping in mind that the mismatch between the size of organisms and the scale at which climate data are collected and modeled remains a key issue, temperature dataset selection should be balanced by the desired output spatiotemporal scale for better predicting pest dynamics and developing efficient pest management strategies.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus