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Age-period-cohort analysis of infectious disease mortality in urban-rural China, 1990-2010.

Li Z, Wang P, Gao G, Xu C, Chen X - Int J Equity Health (2016)

Bottom Line: The mortality gap between urban and rural residents substantially narrowed during this period.From the 1906-1910 to the 1941-1945 birth cohorts, the decrease of mortality among urban residents was significantly faster than that of subsequent birth cohorts and rural counterparts.It is necessary to further strengthen screening, immunization, and treatment for the elderly and for older cohorts at high risk.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.

ABSTRACT

Background: Although a number of studies on infectious disease trends in China exist, these studies have not distinguished the age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously. Here, we analyze infectious disease mortality trends among urban and rural residents in China and distinguish the age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously.

Methods: Infectious disease mortality rates (1990-2010) of urban and rural residents (5-84 years old) were obtained from the China Health Statistical Yearbook and analyzed with an age-period-cohort (APC) model based on Intrinsic Estimator (IE).

Results: Infectious disease mortality is relatively high at age group 5-9, reaches a minimum in adolescence (age group 10-19), then rises with age, with the growth rate gradually slowing down from approximately age 75. From 1990 to 2010, except for a slight rise among urban residents from 2000 to 2005, the mortality of Chinese residents experienced a substantial decline, though at a slower pace from 2005 to 2010. In contrast to the urban residents, rural residents experienced a rapid decline in mortality during 2000 to 2005. The mortality gap between urban and rural residents substantially narrowed during this period. Overall, later birth cohorts experienced lower infectious disease mortality risk. From the 1906-1910 to the 1941-1945 birth cohorts, the decrease of mortality among urban residents was significantly faster than that of subsequent birth cohorts and rural counterparts.

Conclusions: With the rapid aging of the Chinese population, the prevention and control of infectious disease in elderly people will present greater challenges. From 1990 to 2010, the infectious disease mortality of Chinese residents and the urban-rural disparity have experienced substantial declines. However, the re-emergence of previously prevalent diseases and the emergence of new infectious diseases created new challenges. It is necessary to further strengthen screening, immunization, and treatment for the elderly and for older cohorts at high risk.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Age, period and birth cohort effects of infectious disease mortality of Chinese urban and rural residents, 1990–2010. a Age effects. b Period effects. c Birth cohort effects
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Fig3: Age, period and birth cohort effects of infectious disease mortality of Chinese urban and rural residents, 1990–2010. a Age effects. b Period effects. c Birth cohort effects

Mentions: To distinguish the age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously, this study used the APC model (IE) to analyze infectious disease mortality trends (1990–2010) of Chinese urban and rural residents (5–84 years old). Table 1 shows the estimated coefficient, standard error, and other information. To compare the relative mortality risk across ages, periods, and birth cohorts, we calculated the exponential value of the estimated coefficients (exp(coef.) = ecoef.) (Table 1). Specifically, this value denotes the mortality relative risk (RR) of a particular age, period, or birth cohort relative to average levels [46, 47]. To grasp age, period, and cohort effect trends more intuitively, we plotted Fig. 3 based on the exponential value.Table 1


Age-period-cohort analysis of infectious disease mortality in urban-rural China, 1990-2010.

Li Z, Wang P, Gao G, Xu C, Chen X - Int J Equity Health (2016)

Age, period and birth cohort effects of infectious disease mortality of Chinese urban and rural residents, 1990–2010. a Age effects. b Period effects. c Birth cohort effects
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License 1 - License 2
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4815076&req=5

Fig3: Age, period and birth cohort effects of infectious disease mortality of Chinese urban and rural residents, 1990–2010. a Age effects. b Period effects. c Birth cohort effects
Mentions: To distinguish the age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously, this study used the APC model (IE) to analyze infectious disease mortality trends (1990–2010) of Chinese urban and rural residents (5–84 years old). Table 1 shows the estimated coefficient, standard error, and other information. To compare the relative mortality risk across ages, periods, and birth cohorts, we calculated the exponential value of the estimated coefficients (exp(coef.) = ecoef.) (Table 1). Specifically, this value denotes the mortality relative risk (RR) of a particular age, period, or birth cohort relative to average levels [46, 47]. To grasp age, period, and cohort effect trends more intuitively, we plotted Fig. 3 based on the exponential value.Table 1

Bottom Line: The mortality gap between urban and rural residents substantially narrowed during this period.From the 1906-1910 to the 1941-1945 birth cohorts, the decrease of mortality among urban residents was significantly faster than that of subsequent birth cohorts and rural counterparts.It is necessary to further strengthen screening, immunization, and treatment for the elderly and for older cohorts at high risk.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.

ABSTRACT

Background: Although a number of studies on infectious disease trends in China exist, these studies have not distinguished the age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously. Here, we analyze infectious disease mortality trends among urban and rural residents in China and distinguish the age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously.

Methods: Infectious disease mortality rates (1990-2010) of urban and rural residents (5-84 years old) were obtained from the China Health Statistical Yearbook and analyzed with an age-period-cohort (APC) model based on Intrinsic Estimator (IE).

Results: Infectious disease mortality is relatively high at age group 5-9, reaches a minimum in adolescence (age group 10-19), then rises with age, with the growth rate gradually slowing down from approximately age 75. From 1990 to 2010, except for a slight rise among urban residents from 2000 to 2005, the mortality of Chinese residents experienced a substantial decline, though at a slower pace from 2005 to 2010. In contrast to the urban residents, rural residents experienced a rapid decline in mortality during 2000 to 2005. The mortality gap between urban and rural residents substantially narrowed during this period. Overall, later birth cohorts experienced lower infectious disease mortality risk. From the 1906-1910 to the 1941-1945 birth cohorts, the decrease of mortality among urban residents was significantly faster than that of subsequent birth cohorts and rural counterparts.

Conclusions: With the rapid aging of the Chinese population, the prevention and control of infectious disease in elderly people will present greater challenges. From 1990 to 2010, the infectious disease mortality of Chinese residents and the urban-rural disparity have experienced substantial declines. However, the re-emergence of previously prevalent diseases and the emergence of new infectious diseases created new challenges. It is necessary to further strengthen screening, immunization, and treatment for the elderly and for older cohorts at high risk.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus