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Age-period-cohort analysis of infectious disease mortality in urban-rural China, 1990-2010.

Li Z, Wang P, Gao G, Xu C, Chen X - Int J Equity Health (2016)

Bottom Line: The mortality gap between urban and rural residents substantially narrowed during this period.From the 1906-1910 to the 1941-1945 birth cohorts, the decrease of mortality among urban residents was significantly faster than that of subsequent birth cohorts and rural counterparts.It is necessary to further strengthen screening, immunization, and treatment for the elderly and for older cohorts at high risk.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.

ABSTRACT

Background: Although a number of studies on infectious disease trends in China exist, these studies have not distinguished the age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously. Here, we analyze infectious disease mortality trends among urban and rural residents in China and distinguish the age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously.

Methods: Infectious disease mortality rates (1990-2010) of urban and rural residents (5-84 years old) were obtained from the China Health Statistical Yearbook and analyzed with an age-period-cohort (APC) model based on Intrinsic Estimator (IE).

Results: Infectious disease mortality is relatively high at age group 5-9, reaches a minimum in adolescence (age group 10-19), then rises with age, with the growth rate gradually slowing down from approximately age 75. From 1990 to 2010, except for a slight rise among urban residents from 2000 to 2005, the mortality of Chinese residents experienced a substantial decline, though at a slower pace from 2005 to 2010. In contrast to the urban residents, rural residents experienced a rapid decline in mortality during 2000 to 2005. The mortality gap between urban and rural residents substantially narrowed during this period. Overall, later birth cohorts experienced lower infectious disease mortality risk. From the 1906-1910 to the 1941-1945 birth cohorts, the decrease of mortality among urban residents was significantly faster than that of subsequent birth cohorts and rural counterparts.

Conclusions: With the rapid aging of the Chinese population, the prevention and control of infectious disease in elderly people will present greater challenges. From 1990 to 2010, the infectious disease mortality of Chinese residents and the urban-rural disparity have experienced substantial declines. However, the re-emergence of previously prevalent diseases and the emergence of new infectious diseases created new challenges. It is necessary to further strengthen screening, immunization, and treatment for the elderly and for older cohorts at high risk.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Age-specific infectious disease mortality rates of Chinese urban and rural residents (urban-rural disparity comparison), 1990–2010
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Fig2: Age-specific infectious disease mortality rates of Chinese urban and rural residents (urban-rural disparity comparison), 1990–2010

Mentions: To obtain a visual impression of the age, period, and birth cohort effects of infectious disease mortality and demonstrate the need to distinguish these three effects, we analyzed age-specific mortality rates by period (Fig. 1a) and cohort (Fig. 1b). Fig. 1a shows that mortality is relatively high at age 5–9 but reaches a minimum in adolescence (age 10–19) before rising with age. However, the age pattern in Fig. 1b is quite different from that in Fig. 1a, showing that mortality might not increase with age but instead decline for some birth cohorts. From 1990 to 2010, the infectious disease mortality of urban and rural residents continuously declined, except that the mortality of urban residents showed no apparent decline between 2000 and 2005. By contrast, the mortality of rural residents declined rapidly during 2000 to 2005. During 1990 to 2000, the mortality of rural residents was higher than that of urban residents; it was during 2000 to 2005 that the mortality gap between urban and rural residents shrank rapidly, with mortality rates tending to be convergent with each other (Fig. 2). With few exceptions, later birth cohorts showed lower mortality.Fig. 1


Age-period-cohort analysis of infectious disease mortality in urban-rural China, 1990-2010.

Li Z, Wang P, Gao G, Xu C, Chen X - Int J Equity Health (2016)

Age-specific infectious disease mortality rates of Chinese urban and rural residents (urban-rural disparity comparison), 1990–2010
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License 1 - License 2
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4815076&req=5

Fig2: Age-specific infectious disease mortality rates of Chinese urban and rural residents (urban-rural disparity comparison), 1990–2010
Mentions: To obtain a visual impression of the age, period, and birth cohort effects of infectious disease mortality and demonstrate the need to distinguish these three effects, we analyzed age-specific mortality rates by period (Fig. 1a) and cohort (Fig. 1b). Fig. 1a shows that mortality is relatively high at age 5–9 but reaches a minimum in adolescence (age 10–19) before rising with age. However, the age pattern in Fig. 1b is quite different from that in Fig. 1a, showing that mortality might not increase with age but instead decline for some birth cohorts. From 1990 to 2010, the infectious disease mortality of urban and rural residents continuously declined, except that the mortality of urban residents showed no apparent decline between 2000 and 2005. By contrast, the mortality of rural residents declined rapidly during 2000 to 2005. During 1990 to 2000, the mortality of rural residents was higher than that of urban residents; it was during 2000 to 2005 that the mortality gap between urban and rural residents shrank rapidly, with mortality rates tending to be convergent with each other (Fig. 2). With few exceptions, later birth cohorts showed lower mortality.Fig. 1

Bottom Line: The mortality gap between urban and rural residents substantially narrowed during this period.From the 1906-1910 to the 1941-1945 birth cohorts, the decrease of mortality among urban residents was significantly faster than that of subsequent birth cohorts and rural counterparts.It is necessary to further strengthen screening, immunization, and treatment for the elderly and for older cohorts at high risk.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.

ABSTRACT

Background: Although a number of studies on infectious disease trends in China exist, these studies have not distinguished the age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously. Here, we analyze infectious disease mortality trends among urban and rural residents in China and distinguish the age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously.

Methods: Infectious disease mortality rates (1990-2010) of urban and rural residents (5-84 years old) were obtained from the China Health Statistical Yearbook and analyzed with an age-period-cohort (APC) model based on Intrinsic Estimator (IE).

Results: Infectious disease mortality is relatively high at age group 5-9, reaches a minimum in adolescence (age group 10-19), then rises with age, with the growth rate gradually slowing down from approximately age 75. From 1990 to 2010, except for a slight rise among urban residents from 2000 to 2005, the mortality of Chinese residents experienced a substantial decline, though at a slower pace from 2005 to 2010. In contrast to the urban residents, rural residents experienced a rapid decline in mortality during 2000 to 2005. The mortality gap between urban and rural residents substantially narrowed during this period. Overall, later birth cohorts experienced lower infectious disease mortality risk. From the 1906-1910 to the 1941-1945 birth cohorts, the decrease of mortality among urban residents was significantly faster than that of subsequent birth cohorts and rural counterparts.

Conclusions: With the rapid aging of the Chinese population, the prevention and control of infectious disease in elderly people will present greater challenges. From 1990 to 2010, the infectious disease mortality of Chinese residents and the urban-rural disparity have experienced substantial declines. However, the re-emergence of previously prevalent diseases and the emergence of new infectious diseases created new challenges. It is necessary to further strengthen screening, immunization, and treatment for the elderly and for older cohorts at high risk.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus