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Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia.

Fant C, Schlosser CA, Gao X, Strzepek K, Reilly J - PLoS ONE (2016)

Bottom Line: We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources.There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future.Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios--internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population--to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.

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Baseline domestic water requirement (in billion cubic meters).
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pone.0150633.g017: Baseline domestic water requirement (in billion cubic meters).

Mentions: Domestic water requirement for the baseline scenario is shown in Fig 17. Taking a similar approach as with the runoff and irrigation requirements, a region-wide estimate of domestic water requirement is shown in Fig 18 as a percent change, weighting each ASR value by population. Compared to changes in irrigation requirement, domestic water requirement grows substantially percentage-wise, with an 80% to 180% increase. But, since the baseline domestic requirement is small compared to the baseline irrigation requirement (see Figs 11 and 16), the total amount of increase in requirement is relatively small.


Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia.

Fant C, Schlosser CA, Gao X, Strzepek K, Reilly J - PLoS ONE (2016)

Baseline domestic water requirement (in billion cubic meters).
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4814075&req=5

pone.0150633.g017: Baseline domestic water requirement (in billion cubic meters).
Mentions: Domestic water requirement for the baseline scenario is shown in Fig 17. Taking a similar approach as with the runoff and irrigation requirements, a region-wide estimate of domestic water requirement is shown in Fig 18 as a percent change, weighting each ASR value by population. Compared to changes in irrigation requirement, domestic water requirement grows substantially percentage-wise, with an 80% to 180% increase. But, since the baseline domestic requirement is small compared to the baseline irrigation requirement (see Figs 11 and 16), the total amount of increase in requirement is relatively small.

Bottom Line: We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources.There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future.Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios--internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population--to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus