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Experimental pig-to-pig transmission dynamics for African swine fever virus, Georgia 2007/1 strain.

Guinat C, Gubbins S, Vergne T, Gonzales JL, Dixon L, Pfeiffer DU - Epidemiol. Infect. (2015)

Bottom Line: African swine fever virus (ASFV) continues to cause outbreaks in domestic pigs and wild boar in Eastern European countries.Models showed that R 0 is 2·8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·3-4·8] within a pen and 1·4 (95% CI 0·6-2·4) between pens.The results furthermore suggest that ASFV genome detection in oronasal samples is an effective diagnostic tool for early detection of infection.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Royal Veterinary College,Department of Production and Population Health,Hatfield,UK.

ABSTRACT
African swine fever virus (ASFV) continues to cause outbreaks in domestic pigs and wild boar in Eastern European countries. To gain insights into its transmission dynamics, we estimated the pig-to-pig basic reproduction number (R 0) for the Georgia 2007/1 ASFV strain using a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model with parameters estimated from transmission experiments. Models showed that R 0 is 2·8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·3-4·8] within a pen and 1·4 (95% CI 0·6-2·4) between pens. The results furthermore suggest that ASFV genome detection in oronasal samples is an effective diagnostic tool for early detection of infection. This study provides quantitative information on transmission parameters for ASFV in domestic pigs, which are required to more effectively assess the potential impact of strategies for the control of between-farm epidemic spread in European countries.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Median (dots) and 95% confidence intervals (shaded area) of the number of newly infected pigs (red) and of the total number of infectious pigs (blue) per day during simulated outbreaks within a farm unit with Georgia ASFV 2007/1 strain based on three different models. (a1, a2) Model 1 assumed a 3-day latent period. (b1, b2) Model 2 assumed a 4-day latent period. (c1, c2) Model 3 assumed a 5-day latent period. Infectious period duration (days) was represented as a normal distribution (mean ± standard deviation) of either 4·5 ± 0·75 days (a1, b1, c1) or 8·5 ± 2·75 days (a2, b2, c2).
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fig02: Median (dots) and 95% confidence intervals (shaded area) of the number of newly infected pigs (red) and of the total number of infectious pigs (blue) per day during simulated outbreaks within a farm unit with Georgia ASFV 2007/1 strain based on three different models. (a1, a2) Model 1 assumed a 3-day latent period. (b1, b2) Model 2 assumed a 4-day latent period. (c1, c2) Model 3 assumed a 5-day latent period. Infectious period duration (days) was represented as a normal distribution (mean ± standard deviation) of either 4·5 ± 0·75 days (a1, b1, c1) or 8·5 ± 2·75 days (a2, b2, c2).

Mentions: Varying durations of latent and infectious periods resulted in similar epidemic curves (Fig. 2). For example, at the peak of the epidemic curve in all models, the number of newly infected pigs per day remained around 10 (95% CI 0–25) [Fig. 2(a1–c2)].Fig. 2.


Experimental pig-to-pig transmission dynamics for African swine fever virus, Georgia 2007/1 strain.

Guinat C, Gubbins S, Vergne T, Gonzales JL, Dixon L, Pfeiffer DU - Epidemiol. Infect. (2015)

Median (dots) and 95% confidence intervals (shaded area) of the number of newly infected pigs (red) and of the total number of infectious pigs (blue) per day during simulated outbreaks within a farm unit with Georgia ASFV 2007/1 strain based on three different models. (a1, a2) Model 1 assumed a 3-day latent period. (b1, b2) Model 2 assumed a 4-day latent period. (c1, c2) Model 3 assumed a 5-day latent period. Infectious period duration (days) was represented as a normal distribution (mean ± standard deviation) of either 4·5 ± 0·75 days (a1, b1, c1) or 8·5 ± 2·75 days (a2, b2, c2).
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4697298&req=5

fig02: Median (dots) and 95% confidence intervals (shaded area) of the number of newly infected pigs (red) and of the total number of infectious pigs (blue) per day during simulated outbreaks within a farm unit with Georgia ASFV 2007/1 strain based on three different models. (a1, a2) Model 1 assumed a 3-day latent period. (b1, b2) Model 2 assumed a 4-day latent period. (c1, c2) Model 3 assumed a 5-day latent period. Infectious period duration (days) was represented as a normal distribution (mean ± standard deviation) of either 4·5 ± 0·75 days (a1, b1, c1) or 8·5 ± 2·75 days (a2, b2, c2).
Mentions: Varying durations of latent and infectious periods resulted in similar epidemic curves (Fig. 2). For example, at the peak of the epidemic curve in all models, the number of newly infected pigs per day remained around 10 (95% CI 0–25) [Fig. 2(a1–c2)].Fig. 2.

Bottom Line: African swine fever virus (ASFV) continues to cause outbreaks in domestic pigs and wild boar in Eastern European countries.Models showed that R 0 is 2·8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·3-4·8] within a pen and 1·4 (95% CI 0·6-2·4) between pens.The results furthermore suggest that ASFV genome detection in oronasal samples is an effective diagnostic tool for early detection of infection.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Royal Veterinary College,Department of Production and Population Health,Hatfield,UK.

ABSTRACT
African swine fever virus (ASFV) continues to cause outbreaks in domestic pigs and wild boar in Eastern European countries. To gain insights into its transmission dynamics, we estimated the pig-to-pig basic reproduction number (R 0) for the Georgia 2007/1 ASFV strain using a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model with parameters estimated from transmission experiments. Models showed that R 0 is 2·8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·3-4·8] within a pen and 1·4 (95% CI 0·6-2·4) between pens. The results furthermore suggest that ASFV genome detection in oronasal samples is an effective diagnostic tool for early detection of infection. This study provides quantitative information on transmission parameters for ASFV in domestic pigs, which are required to more effectively assess the potential impact of strategies for the control of between-farm epidemic spread in European countries.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus