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Spatio-Temporal Identification of Areas Suitable for West Nile Disease in the Mediterranean Basin and Central Europe.

Conte A, Candeloro L, Ippoliti C, Monaco F, De Massis F, Bruno R, Di Sabatino D, Danzetta ML, Benjelloun A, Belkadi B, El Harrak M, Declich S, Rizzo C, Hammami S, Ben Hassine T, Calistri P, Savini G - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: Between May and July, the most suitable areas are located in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and North Cyprus.Summer/Autumn months, particularly between August and October, characterize the suitability in Italy, France, Spain, the Balkan countries, Morocco, North Tunisia, the Mediterranean coast of Africa, and the Middle East.The persistence of suitable conditions in December is confined to the coastal areas of Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and Israel.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Abruzzo e del Molise 'G. Caporale', Teramo, Italy.

ABSTRACT
West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-transmitted Flavivirus belonging to the Japanese encephalitis antigenic complex of the Flaviviridae family. Its spread in the Mediterranean basin and the Balkans poses a significant risk to human health and forces public health officials to constantly monitor the virus transmission to ensure prompt application of preventive measures. In this context, predictive tools indicating the areas and periods at major risk of WNV transmission are of paramount importance. Spatial analysis approaches, which use environmental and climatic variables to find suitable habitats for WNV spread, can enhance predictive techniques. Using the Mahalanobis Distance statistic, areas ecologically most suitable for sustaining WNV transmission were identified in the Mediterranean basin and Central Europe. About 270 human and equine clinical cases notified in Italy, Greece, Portugal, Morocco, and Tunisia, between 2008 and 2012, have been considered. The environmental variables included in the model were altitude, slope, night time Land Surface Temperature, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Enhanced Vegetation Index, and daily temperature range. Seasonality of mosquito population has been modelled and included in the analyses to produce monthly maps of suitable areas for West Nile Disease. Between May and July, the most suitable areas are located in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and North Cyprus. Summer/Autumn months, particularly between August and October, characterize the suitability in Italy, France, Spain, the Balkan countries, Morocco, North Tunisia, the Mediterranean coast of Africa, and the Middle East. The persistence of suitable conditions in December is confined to the coastal areas of Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and Israel.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

West Nile Disease suitability maps (on a monthly basis) from May to December for the study area.From January to April, no areas suitable for WND were predicted (probability was less than 1%).
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pone.0146024.g002: West Nile Disease suitability maps (on a monthly basis) from May to December for the study area.From January to April, no areas suitable for WND were predicted (probability was less than 1%).

Mentions: The 365 raster images of MD p-values and the 365 raster images of normalized mosquito growth values were then combined with an ‘AND’ operator to produce 365 maps of suitable areas. Finally, the 365 results were aggregated considering the maximum value in a 30-day period producing 12 suitability maps (Fig 2).


Spatio-Temporal Identification of Areas Suitable for West Nile Disease in the Mediterranean Basin and Central Europe.

Conte A, Candeloro L, Ippoliti C, Monaco F, De Massis F, Bruno R, Di Sabatino D, Danzetta ML, Benjelloun A, Belkadi B, El Harrak M, Declich S, Rizzo C, Hammami S, Ben Hassine T, Calistri P, Savini G - PLoS ONE (2015)

West Nile Disease suitability maps (on a monthly basis) from May to December for the study area.From January to April, no areas suitable for WND were predicted (probability was less than 1%).
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4696814&req=5

pone.0146024.g002: West Nile Disease suitability maps (on a monthly basis) from May to December for the study area.From January to April, no areas suitable for WND were predicted (probability was less than 1%).
Mentions: The 365 raster images of MD p-values and the 365 raster images of normalized mosquito growth values were then combined with an ‘AND’ operator to produce 365 maps of suitable areas. Finally, the 365 results were aggregated considering the maximum value in a 30-day period producing 12 suitability maps (Fig 2).

Bottom Line: Between May and July, the most suitable areas are located in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and North Cyprus.Summer/Autumn months, particularly between August and October, characterize the suitability in Italy, France, Spain, the Balkan countries, Morocco, North Tunisia, the Mediterranean coast of Africa, and the Middle East.The persistence of suitable conditions in December is confined to the coastal areas of Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and Israel.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Abruzzo e del Molise 'G. Caporale', Teramo, Italy.

ABSTRACT
West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-transmitted Flavivirus belonging to the Japanese encephalitis antigenic complex of the Flaviviridae family. Its spread in the Mediterranean basin and the Balkans poses a significant risk to human health and forces public health officials to constantly monitor the virus transmission to ensure prompt application of preventive measures. In this context, predictive tools indicating the areas and periods at major risk of WNV transmission are of paramount importance. Spatial analysis approaches, which use environmental and climatic variables to find suitable habitats for WNV spread, can enhance predictive techniques. Using the Mahalanobis Distance statistic, areas ecologically most suitable for sustaining WNV transmission were identified in the Mediterranean basin and Central Europe. About 270 human and equine clinical cases notified in Italy, Greece, Portugal, Morocco, and Tunisia, between 2008 and 2012, have been considered. The environmental variables included in the model were altitude, slope, night time Land Surface Temperature, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Enhanced Vegetation Index, and daily temperature range. Seasonality of mosquito population has been modelled and included in the analyses to produce monthly maps of suitable areas for West Nile Disease. Between May and July, the most suitable areas are located in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and North Cyprus. Summer/Autumn months, particularly between August and October, characterize the suitability in Italy, France, Spain, the Balkan countries, Morocco, North Tunisia, the Mediterranean coast of Africa, and the Middle East. The persistence of suitable conditions in December is confined to the coastal areas of Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and Israel.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus