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A global map of hemispheric influenza vaccine recommendations based on local patterns of viral circulation.

Alonso WJ, Yu C, Viboud C, Richard SA, Schuck-Paim C, Simonsen L, Mello WA, Miller MA - Sci Rep (2015)

Bottom Line: Both the Northern and the Southern Hemisphere annual WHO influenza vaccine recommendations are designed to ensure vaccine delivery before the winter-time peak of viral circulation in each hemisphere.Influenza vaccine recommendations for respectively 25% and 39% of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere countries were out of phase with peak influenza circulation in their corresponding hemisphere (62% and 53%, respectively, when the analysis was limited to the 52 countries in the tropical belt).These results indicate that routine influenza immunization efforts should be closely tailored to local patterns of viral circulation, rather than a country's hemispheric position.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: National Institutes of Health, Fogarty International Center, Bethesda, MD, 20892, USA.

ABSTRACT
Both the Northern and the Southern Hemisphere annual WHO influenza vaccine recommendations are designed to ensure vaccine delivery before the winter-time peak of viral circulation in each hemisphere. However, influenza seasonal patterns are highly diverse in tropical countries and may be out of phase with the WHO recommendations for their respective hemisphere. We modelled the peak timing of influenza activity for 125 countries using laboratory-based surveillance data from the WHO's FLUNET database and compared it with the influenza hemispheric recommendations in place. Influenza vaccine recommendations for respectively 25% and 39% of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere countries were out of phase with peak influenza circulation in their corresponding hemisphere (62% and 53%, respectively, when the analysis was limited to the 52 countries in the tropical belt). These results indicate that routine influenza immunization efforts should be closely tailored to local patterns of viral circulation, rather than a country's hemispheric position.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Heat map of monthly influenza virus incidence patterns in 125 countries, 2009-2014, sorted by latitude of the capital cities. Color bar represents the intensity of influenza incidence, from high (red) to low (blue).Monthly incidence counts were standardized annually, and shown as the proportion of the maximum number of cases in a month for that country and period (hence, months with the maximum number of cases for a given year were assigned the value 1). Year 2009 was excluded from seasonality analyses due to the A/H1N1 pandemic emergence. Data source: FluNet526. Visualization: Epipoi28.
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f3: Heat map of monthly influenza virus incidence patterns in 125 countries, 2009-2014, sorted by latitude of the capital cities. Color bar represents the intensity of influenza incidence, from high (red) to low (blue).Monthly incidence counts were standardized annually, and shown as the proportion of the maximum number of cases in a month for that country and period (hence, months with the maximum number of cases for a given year were assigned the value 1). Year 2009 was excluded from seasonality analyses due to the A/H1N1 pandemic emergence. Data source: FluNet526. Visualization: Epipoi28.

Mentions: We compiled laboratory-confirmed influenza cases by virus type (seasonal H1N1, H1N1pdm09, H3N2, B and unsubtyped) for 144 countries from the FluNet database, the global influenza surveillance system maintained by WHO2526 (http://www.who.int/influenza/gisrs_laboratory/flunet/en). There was a surge of virus-surveillance after the 2009 influenza pandemic; therefore, we focused on the post-pandemic period 2010–2014 (Fig. 3), when reporting was stable and stronger (2009 was excluded because it was markedly atypical, and 2015 because it is incomplete at the time of this writing). Information was not available at the sub-national level, therefore we generated monthly influenza time-series for each country, with at least 20 virus specimens reported for this period. We also excluded Brazil, India and China as they are large countries spanning temperate and tropical regions, where subnational studies were previously carried out111215. A total of 125 countries qualified for these analyses.


A global map of hemispheric influenza vaccine recommendations based on local patterns of viral circulation.

Alonso WJ, Yu C, Viboud C, Richard SA, Schuck-Paim C, Simonsen L, Mello WA, Miller MA - Sci Rep (2015)

Heat map of monthly influenza virus incidence patterns in 125 countries, 2009-2014, sorted by latitude of the capital cities. Color bar represents the intensity of influenza incidence, from high (red) to low (blue).Monthly incidence counts were standardized annually, and shown as the proportion of the maximum number of cases in a month for that country and period (hence, months with the maximum number of cases for a given year were assigned the value 1). Year 2009 was excluded from seasonality analyses due to the A/H1N1 pandemic emergence. Data source: FluNet526. Visualization: Epipoi28.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4664865&req=5

f3: Heat map of monthly influenza virus incidence patterns in 125 countries, 2009-2014, sorted by latitude of the capital cities. Color bar represents the intensity of influenza incidence, from high (red) to low (blue).Monthly incidence counts were standardized annually, and shown as the proportion of the maximum number of cases in a month for that country and period (hence, months with the maximum number of cases for a given year were assigned the value 1). Year 2009 was excluded from seasonality analyses due to the A/H1N1 pandemic emergence. Data source: FluNet526. Visualization: Epipoi28.
Mentions: We compiled laboratory-confirmed influenza cases by virus type (seasonal H1N1, H1N1pdm09, H3N2, B and unsubtyped) for 144 countries from the FluNet database, the global influenza surveillance system maintained by WHO2526 (http://www.who.int/influenza/gisrs_laboratory/flunet/en). There was a surge of virus-surveillance after the 2009 influenza pandemic; therefore, we focused on the post-pandemic period 2010–2014 (Fig. 3), when reporting was stable and stronger (2009 was excluded because it was markedly atypical, and 2015 because it is incomplete at the time of this writing). Information was not available at the sub-national level, therefore we generated monthly influenza time-series for each country, with at least 20 virus specimens reported for this period. We also excluded Brazil, India and China as they are large countries spanning temperate and tropical regions, where subnational studies were previously carried out111215. A total of 125 countries qualified for these analyses.

Bottom Line: Both the Northern and the Southern Hemisphere annual WHO influenza vaccine recommendations are designed to ensure vaccine delivery before the winter-time peak of viral circulation in each hemisphere.Influenza vaccine recommendations for respectively 25% and 39% of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere countries were out of phase with peak influenza circulation in their corresponding hemisphere (62% and 53%, respectively, when the analysis was limited to the 52 countries in the tropical belt).These results indicate that routine influenza immunization efforts should be closely tailored to local patterns of viral circulation, rather than a country's hemispheric position.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: National Institutes of Health, Fogarty International Center, Bethesda, MD, 20892, USA.

ABSTRACT
Both the Northern and the Southern Hemisphere annual WHO influenza vaccine recommendations are designed to ensure vaccine delivery before the winter-time peak of viral circulation in each hemisphere. However, influenza seasonal patterns are highly diverse in tropical countries and may be out of phase with the WHO recommendations for their respective hemisphere. We modelled the peak timing of influenza activity for 125 countries using laboratory-based surveillance data from the WHO's FLUNET database and compared it with the influenza hemispheric recommendations in place. Influenza vaccine recommendations for respectively 25% and 39% of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere countries were out of phase with peak influenza circulation in their corresponding hemisphere (62% and 53%, respectively, when the analysis was limited to the 52 countries in the tropical belt). These results indicate that routine influenza immunization efforts should be closely tailored to local patterns of viral circulation, rather than a country's hemispheric position.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus