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Diabetes Prevalence in Sweden at Present and Projections for Year 2050.

Andersson T, Ahlbom A, Carlsson S - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: With constant incidence and continued improvement in relative survival, prevalence will increase to 10.4% by year 2050 and the number of afflicted individuals will increase to 940 000.A hypothesized 1% annual rise in incidence will result in a prevalence of 12.6% and 1 136 000 cases.A dramatic reduction in incidence is required to prevent this development.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.

ABSTRACT

Background: Data on the future diabetes burden in Scandinavia is limited. Our aim was to project the future burden of diabetes in Sweden by modelling data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and demographic factors.

Method: To project the future burden of diabetes we used information on the prevalence of diabetes from the national drug prescription registry (adults ≥ 20 years), previously published data on relative mortality in people with diabetes, and population demographics and projections from Statistics Sweden. Alternative scenarios were created based on different assumptions regarding the future incidence of diabetes.

Results: Between 2007 and 2013 the prevalence of diabetes rose from 5.8 to 6.8% in Sweden but incidence remained constant at 4.4 per 1000 (2013). With constant incidence and continued improvement in relative survival, prevalence will increase to 10.4% by year 2050 and the number of afflicted individuals will increase to 940 000. Of this rise, 30% is accounted for by changes in the age structure of the population and 14% by improved relative survival in people with diabetes. A hypothesized 1% annual rise in incidence will result in a prevalence of 12.6% and 1 136 000 cases. Even with decreasing incidence at 1% per year, prevalence of diabetes will continue to increase.

Conclusion: We can expect diabetes prevalence to rise substantially in Sweden over the next 35 years as a result of demographic changes and improved survival among people with diabetes. A dramatic reduction in incidence is required to prevent this development.

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Prevalence of diabetes in Sweden 2007–2013 and projections for 2014–2050, by sex.
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pone.0143084.g002: Prevalence of diabetes in Sweden 2007–2013 and projections for 2014–2050, by sex.

Mentions: Scenario A: With a continued relative decline in mortality risk in people with diabetes and constant incidence, the prevalence of diabetes is projected to increase in Sweden and reach 10.4% by year 2050 (Fig 1); 8.6% in women and 12.2% in men (Fig 2). The number of people with diabetes will also increase and by year 2050, 940 000 inhabitants will have diabetes (Fig 3). Most of the rise in prevalence will occur at age 65 and above (S1 Fig). According to our projection, there will be a shift in the age distribution of the diabetes patients; in 2013, 59% of all individuals with diabetes were 65 years or older compared to 69% in 2050. Scenario B: If mortality risk continues to decline faster in people with diabetes than in those without as in Scenario A, but incidence starts to rise at 1% per year, we can expect diabetes prevalence of 12.6% in 2050 (10.4% in women and 14.8% in men) (Fig 1). With this scenario 1 136 000 inhabitants will have diabetes in 2050 (Fig 3). Scenario C: In the third scenario, mortality in people with diabetes decline as in Scenario A and B but incidence decreases at 1% per year. This would lead to prevalence of 8.7% by year 2050 and 783 000 individuals with diabetes. Scenario D: If mortality risk in people with diabetes stabilizes and incidence is constant, prevalence would reach 9.7% and the number of afflicted individuals would be 880 000 by year 2050.


Diabetes Prevalence in Sweden at Present and Projections for Year 2050.

Andersson T, Ahlbom A, Carlsson S - PLoS ONE (2015)

Prevalence of diabetes in Sweden 2007–2013 and projections for 2014–2050, by sex.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4664416&req=5

pone.0143084.g002: Prevalence of diabetes in Sweden 2007–2013 and projections for 2014–2050, by sex.
Mentions: Scenario A: With a continued relative decline in mortality risk in people with diabetes and constant incidence, the prevalence of diabetes is projected to increase in Sweden and reach 10.4% by year 2050 (Fig 1); 8.6% in women and 12.2% in men (Fig 2). The number of people with diabetes will also increase and by year 2050, 940 000 inhabitants will have diabetes (Fig 3). Most of the rise in prevalence will occur at age 65 and above (S1 Fig). According to our projection, there will be a shift in the age distribution of the diabetes patients; in 2013, 59% of all individuals with diabetes were 65 years or older compared to 69% in 2050. Scenario B: If mortality risk continues to decline faster in people with diabetes than in those without as in Scenario A, but incidence starts to rise at 1% per year, we can expect diabetes prevalence of 12.6% in 2050 (10.4% in women and 14.8% in men) (Fig 1). With this scenario 1 136 000 inhabitants will have diabetes in 2050 (Fig 3). Scenario C: In the third scenario, mortality in people with diabetes decline as in Scenario A and B but incidence decreases at 1% per year. This would lead to prevalence of 8.7% by year 2050 and 783 000 individuals with diabetes. Scenario D: If mortality risk in people with diabetes stabilizes and incidence is constant, prevalence would reach 9.7% and the number of afflicted individuals would be 880 000 by year 2050.

Bottom Line: With constant incidence and continued improvement in relative survival, prevalence will increase to 10.4% by year 2050 and the number of afflicted individuals will increase to 940 000.A hypothesized 1% annual rise in incidence will result in a prevalence of 12.6% and 1 136 000 cases.A dramatic reduction in incidence is required to prevent this development.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.

ABSTRACT

Background: Data on the future diabetes burden in Scandinavia is limited. Our aim was to project the future burden of diabetes in Sweden by modelling data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and demographic factors.

Method: To project the future burden of diabetes we used information on the prevalence of diabetes from the national drug prescription registry (adults ≥ 20 years), previously published data on relative mortality in people with diabetes, and population demographics and projections from Statistics Sweden. Alternative scenarios were created based on different assumptions regarding the future incidence of diabetes.

Results: Between 2007 and 2013 the prevalence of diabetes rose from 5.8 to 6.8% in Sweden but incidence remained constant at 4.4 per 1000 (2013). With constant incidence and continued improvement in relative survival, prevalence will increase to 10.4% by year 2050 and the number of afflicted individuals will increase to 940 000. Of this rise, 30% is accounted for by changes in the age structure of the population and 14% by improved relative survival in people with diabetes. A hypothesized 1% annual rise in incidence will result in a prevalence of 12.6% and 1 136 000 cases. Even with decreasing incidence at 1% per year, prevalence of diabetes will continue to increase.

Conclusion: We can expect diabetes prevalence to rise substantially in Sweden over the next 35 years as a result of demographic changes and improved survival among people with diabetes. A dramatic reduction in incidence is required to prevent this development.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus