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The impact of environmental and climatic variation on the spatiotemporal trends of hospitalized pediatric diarrhea in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

Thompson CN, Zelner JL, Nhu Tdo H, Phan MV, Hoang Le P, Nguyen Thanh H, Vu Thuy D, Minh Nguyen N, Ha Manh T, Van Hoang Minh T, Lu Lan V, Nguyen Van Vinh C, Tran Tinh H, von Clemm E, Storch H, Thwaites G, Grenfell BT, Baker S - Health Place (2015)

Bottom Line: Using all inpatient diarrheal admissions data from three large hospitals within HCMC, we developed a mixed effects regression model to differentiate district-level variation in risk due to environmental conditions from the overarching seasonality of diarrheal disease hospitalization in HCMC.We identified considerable spatial heterogeneity in the risk of all-cause diarrhea across districts of HCMC with low elevation and differential responses to flooding, air temperature, and humidity driving further spatial heterogeneity in diarrheal disease risk.The incorporation of these results into predictive forecasting algorithms will provide a powerful resource to aid diarrheal disease prevention and control practices in HCMC and other similar settings.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; Centre for Tropical Medicine, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, United Kingdom; The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom. Electronic address: cthompson@oucru.org.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Time series and correlation of diarrheal case counts and climate factors in Ho Chi Minh City. (A) From top to bottom: Individual weekly time series (period 2005–2010) of total citywide reported cases of diarrhea recorded at the three study sites, average river level of the Don Dien river in southern HCMC in cm, average weekly relative percent humidity, average weekly rainfall in cm and the average weekly temperature in Celsius. (B) Scatterplots of weekly diarrheal case counts and normalized average weekly river level and citywide humidity, rainfall and temperature. The climate variables have been normalized to zero mean and unit variance. The colored lines represent the fitted Poisson model. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend,the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
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f0005: Time series and correlation of diarrheal case counts and climate factors in Ho Chi Minh City. (A) From top to bottom: Individual weekly time series (period 2005–2010) of total citywide reported cases of diarrhea recorded at the three study sites, average river level of the Don Dien river in southern HCMC in cm, average weekly relative percent humidity, average weekly rainfall in cm and the average weekly temperature in Celsius. (B) Scatterplots of weekly diarrheal case counts and normalized average weekly river level and citywide humidity, rainfall and temperature. The climate variables have been normalized to zero mean and unit variance. The colored lines represent the fitted Poisson model. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend,the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

Mentions: A consistent pattern of seasonality in diarrhea hospitalizations was apparent from the citywide count data (Fig 1A). Throughout the sampled years the burden of diarrheal disease was highest during the drier months from January to March with a mean of 10% of yearly cases reported in each of these months (range: 7.5–12.4%). There was a corresponding trough in August–September, with a mean of 7% of annual cases reported during each month (range: 6.1–8.2%). Individual district-level time series varied in magnitude and variability of the yearly peak of reported cases in the dry season (Fig. S3). The overall rate of reported diarrhea across HCMC did not differ spatially when stratified by age of patients or by season (dry and wet).


The impact of environmental and climatic variation on the spatiotemporal trends of hospitalized pediatric diarrhea in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

Thompson CN, Zelner JL, Nhu Tdo H, Phan MV, Hoang Le P, Nguyen Thanh H, Vu Thuy D, Minh Nguyen N, Ha Manh T, Van Hoang Minh T, Lu Lan V, Nguyen Van Vinh C, Tran Tinh H, von Clemm E, Storch H, Thwaites G, Grenfell BT, Baker S - Health Place (2015)

Time series and correlation of diarrheal case counts and climate factors in Ho Chi Minh City. (A) From top to bottom: Individual weekly time series (period 2005–2010) of total citywide reported cases of diarrhea recorded at the three study sites, average river level of the Don Dien river in southern HCMC in cm, average weekly relative percent humidity, average weekly rainfall in cm and the average weekly temperature in Celsius. (B) Scatterplots of weekly diarrheal case counts and normalized average weekly river level and citywide humidity, rainfall and temperature. The climate variables have been normalized to zero mean and unit variance. The colored lines represent the fitted Poisson model. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend,the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
© Copyright Policy - CC BY
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4664115&req=5

f0005: Time series and correlation of diarrheal case counts and climate factors in Ho Chi Minh City. (A) From top to bottom: Individual weekly time series (period 2005–2010) of total citywide reported cases of diarrhea recorded at the three study sites, average river level of the Don Dien river in southern HCMC in cm, average weekly relative percent humidity, average weekly rainfall in cm and the average weekly temperature in Celsius. (B) Scatterplots of weekly diarrheal case counts and normalized average weekly river level and citywide humidity, rainfall and temperature. The climate variables have been normalized to zero mean and unit variance. The colored lines represent the fitted Poisson model. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend,the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
Mentions: A consistent pattern of seasonality in diarrhea hospitalizations was apparent from the citywide count data (Fig 1A). Throughout the sampled years the burden of diarrheal disease was highest during the drier months from January to March with a mean of 10% of yearly cases reported in each of these months (range: 7.5–12.4%). There was a corresponding trough in August–September, with a mean of 7% of annual cases reported during each month (range: 6.1–8.2%). Individual district-level time series varied in magnitude and variability of the yearly peak of reported cases in the dry season (Fig. S3). The overall rate of reported diarrhea across HCMC did not differ spatially when stratified by age of patients or by season (dry and wet).

Bottom Line: Using all inpatient diarrheal admissions data from three large hospitals within HCMC, we developed a mixed effects regression model to differentiate district-level variation in risk due to environmental conditions from the overarching seasonality of diarrheal disease hospitalization in HCMC.We identified considerable spatial heterogeneity in the risk of all-cause diarrhea across districts of HCMC with low elevation and differential responses to flooding, air temperature, and humidity driving further spatial heterogeneity in diarrheal disease risk.The incorporation of these results into predictive forecasting algorithms will provide a powerful resource to aid diarrheal disease prevention and control practices in HCMC and other similar settings.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; Centre for Tropical Medicine, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, United Kingdom; The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom. Electronic address: cthompson@oucru.org.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus