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Identification of Hypertension Predictors and Application to Hypertension Prediction in an Urban Han Chinese Population: A Longitudinal Study, 2005-2010.

Zhang W, Wang L, Chen Y, Tang F, Xue F, Zhang C - Prev Chronic Dis (2015)

Bottom Line: After a 5-year follow-up, the cohort of participants had an area under receiver operating characteristic curve (area under the curve [AUC]) with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.755 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.746-0.763) for men and an OR of 0.801 (95% CI, 0.792-0.810) for women.After tenfold cross validation, the AUC was still high, with 0.755 (95% CI, 0.746-0.763) for men and 0.800 (95% CI, 0.791-0.810) for women.An HSP-based 5-year risk matrix provided a convenient tool for risk appraisal.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, China.

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Research suggests that targeting high-risk, nonhypertensive patients for preventive intervention may delay the onset of hypertension. We aimed to develop a biomarker-based risk prediction model for assessing hypertension risk in an urban Han Chinese population.

Methods: We analyzed data from 26,496 people with hypertension to extract factors from 11 check-up biomarkers. Then, depending on a 5-year follow-up cohort, a Cox model for predicting hypertension development was built by using extracted factors as predictors. Finally, we created a hypertension synthetic predictor (HSP) by weighting each factor with its risk for hypertension to develop a risk assessment matrix.

Results: After factor analysis, 5 risk factors were extracted from data for both men and women. After a 5-year follow-up, the cohort of participants had an area under receiver operating characteristic curve (area under the curve [AUC]) with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.755 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.746-0.763) for men and an OR of 0.801 (95% CI, 0.792-0.810) for women. After tenfold cross validation, the AUC was still high, with 0.755 (95% CI, 0.746-0.763) for men and 0.800 (95% CI, 0.791-0.810) for women. An HSP-based 5-year risk matrix provided a convenient tool for risk appraisal.

Conclusion: Hypertension could be explained by 5 factors in a population sample of Chinese urban Han. The HSP may be useful in predicting hypertension.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

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Identification of Hypertension Predictors and Application to Hypertension Prediction in an Urban Han Chinese Population: A Longitudinal Study, 2005-2010.

Zhang W, Wang L, Chen Y, Tang F, Xue F, Zhang C - Prev Chronic Dis (2015)

© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4663898&req=5

Bottom Line: After a 5-year follow-up, the cohort of participants had an area under receiver operating characteristic curve (area under the curve [AUC]) with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.755 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.746-0.763) for men and an OR of 0.801 (95% CI, 0.792-0.810) for women.After tenfold cross validation, the AUC was still high, with 0.755 (95% CI, 0.746-0.763) for men and 0.800 (95% CI, 0.791-0.810) for women.An HSP-based 5-year risk matrix provided a convenient tool for risk appraisal.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, China.

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Research suggests that targeting high-risk, nonhypertensive patients for preventive intervention may delay the onset of hypertension. We aimed to develop a biomarker-based risk prediction model for assessing hypertension risk in an urban Han Chinese population.

Methods: We analyzed data from 26,496 people with hypertension to extract factors from 11 check-up biomarkers. Then, depending on a 5-year follow-up cohort, a Cox model for predicting hypertension development was built by using extracted factors as predictors. Finally, we created a hypertension synthetic predictor (HSP) by weighting each factor with its risk for hypertension to develop a risk assessment matrix.

Results: After factor analysis, 5 risk factors were extracted from data for both men and women. After a 5-year follow-up, the cohort of participants had an area under receiver operating characteristic curve (area under the curve [AUC]) with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.755 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.746-0.763) for men and an OR of 0.801 (95% CI, 0.792-0.810) for women. After tenfold cross validation, the AUC was still high, with 0.755 (95% CI, 0.746-0.763) for men and 0.800 (95% CI, 0.791-0.810) for women. An HSP-based 5-year risk matrix provided a convenient tool for risk appraisal.

Conclusion: Hypertension could be explained by 5 factors in a population sample of Chinese urban Han. The HSP may be useful in predicting hypertension.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus