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Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodelling approach based on population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics.

Moreno ES, Agostini I, Holzmann I, Di Bitetti MS, Oklander LI, Kowalewski MM, Beldomenico PM, Goenaga S, Martínez M, Lestani E, Desbiez AL, Miller P - Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz (2015)

Bottom Line: Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation.The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years.We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará, Santarém, PA, Brasil.

ABSTRACT
In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.

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epidemiological sensitivity analysis of a simulated population of brownhowler monkeys subject to yellow fever (YF) outbreaks. Those curves with thesteepest slope indicate the model parameters with the greatest overallsensitivity. Ext: between the howler monkey population and an outside source ofYF virus.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
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f04: epidemiological sensitivity analysis of a simulated population of brownhowler monkeys subject to yellow fever (YF) outbreaks. Those curves with thesteepest slope indicate the model parameters with the greatest overallsensitivity. Ext: between the howler monkey population and an outside source ofYF virus.

Mentions: However, because of the relatively severe 50% mortality impact of any outbreak asdefined in our baseline model, even a low outbreak frequency leads to a reduced growthrate and increased extinction risk. In a similar fashion, increasing the transmissionrate (Table III) following contact has a majorimpact on the simulated population, leading to a significant reduction in populationgrowth rate (Fig. 4).


Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodelling approach based on population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics.

Moreno ES, Agostini I, Holzmann I, Di Bitetti MS, Oklander LI, Kowalewski MM, Beldomenico PM, Goenaga S, Martínez M, Lestani E, Desbiez AL, Miller P - Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz (2015)

epidemiological sensitivity analysis of a simulated population of brownhowler monkeys subject to yellow fever (YF) outbreaks. Those curves with thesteepest slope indicate the model parameters with the greatest overallsensitivity. Ext: between the howler monkey population and an outside source ofYF virus.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4660615&req=5

f04: epidemiological sensitivity analysis of a simulated population of brownhowler monkeys subject to yellow fever (YF) outbreaks. Those curves with thesteepest slope indicate the model parameters with the greatest overallsensitivity. Ext: between the howler monkey population and an outside source ofYF virus.
Mentions: However, because of the relatively severe 50% mortality impact of any outbreak asdefined in our baseline model, even a low outbreak frequency leads to a reduced growthrate and increased extinction risk. In a similar fashion, increasing the transmissionrate (Table III) following contact has a majorimpact on the simulated population, leading to a significant reduction in populationgrowth rate (Fig. 4).

Bottom Line: Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation.The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years.We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará, Santarém, PA, Brasil.

ABSTRACT
In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus