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Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodelling approach based on population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics.

Moreno ES, Agostini I, Holzmann I, Di Bitetti MS, Oklander LI, Kowalewski MM, Beldomenico PM, Goenaga S, Martínez M, Lestani E, Desbiez AL, Miller P - Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz (2015)

Bottom Line: Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation.The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years.We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará, Santarém, PA, Brasil.

ABSTRACT
In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.

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distribution of remnant populations of brown howlers in Misiones,Argentina, estimated by the workshop participants. Red circles represent thepotential subpopulations (numbered from 1-4) currently present in Misiones. Redpoints represent locations where the species presence has been confirmed (atleast before the yellow fever outbreaks); B: distribution, size (n), potentialcarrying capacity (K) and connectivity of brown howler monkeys estimated inMisiones by the workshop participants.
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f01: distribution of remnant populations of brown howlers in Misiones,Argentina, estimated by the workshop participants. Red circles represent thepotential subpopulations (numbered from 1-4) currently present in Misiones. Redpoints represent locations where the species presence has been confirmed (atleast before the yellow fever outbreaks); B: distribution, size (n), potentialcarrying capacity (K) and connectivity of brown howler monkeys estimated inMisiones by the workshop participants.

Mentions: Metapopulation simulation - Due to forest fragmentation the remnantbrown howler monkey population is becoming increasingly structured into subpopulationsand so, might not be impacted by YF outbreaks in the same way. Thus, we tried tosimulate how the population of brown howler monkey might potentially be distributed inMisiones (Fig. 1A), as well as what populationsizes would be (n) and could potentially be (K) (Fig.1B). There are no specific references to support these population numbers andwere based on the field experience of researchers (Agostini et al. 2010, 2012, Holzmann et al. 2010). But, we believe, thissimulation would be useful to illustrate the possible mechanisms related tometapopulation dynamics, not evaluated in the baseline model. Dispersal betweenpopulations was estimated and modelled. We estimated that males dispersed more thanfemales (Oklander et al. 2010) and dispersalprobably occurs between four-six years of age. Dispersal rates varied between fragmentsbased on the perceived degree of connectivity and no mortality was considered. Of thedispersing individuals, assumptions were made based on Oklander et al. (2010), in which 70% were males and 30% females. Dispersalrates between populations are represented in Fig.1B. For more details about methods for metapopulation input parameters inVortex see Lacy et al. (2013) and Lacy and Pollak (2013).


Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodelling approach based on population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics.

Moreno ES, Agostini I, Holzmann I, Di Bitetti MS, Oklander LI, Kowalewski MM, Beldomenico PM, Goenaga S, Martínez M, Lestani E, Desbiez AL, Miller P - Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz (2015)

distribution of remnant populations of brown howlers in Misiones,Argentina, estimated by the workshop participants. Red circles represent thepotential subpopulations (numbered from 1-4) currently present in Misiones. Redpoints represent locations where the species presence has been confirmed (atleast before the yellow fever outbreaks); B: distribution, size (n), potentialcarrying capacity (K) and connectivity of brown howler monkeys estimated inMisiones by the workshop participants.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4660615&req=5

f01: distribution of remnant populations of brown howlers in Misiones,Argentina, estimated by the workshop participants. Red circles represent thepotential subpopulations (numbered from 1-4) currently present in Misiones. Redpoints represent locations where the species presence has been confirmed (atleast before the yellow fever outbreaks); B: distribution, size (n), potentialcarrying capacity (K) and connectivity of brown howler monkeys estimated inMisiones by the workshop participants.
Mentions: Metapopulation simulation - Due to forest fragmentation the remnantbrown howler monkey population is becoming increasingly structured into subpopulationsand so, might not be impacted by YF outbreaks in the same way. Thus, we tried tosimulate how the population of brown howler monkey might potentially be distributed inMisiones (Fig. 1A), as well as what populationsizes would be (n) and could potentially be (K) (Fig.1B). There are no specific references to support these population numbers andwere based on the field experience of researchers (Agostini et al. 2010, 2012, Holzmann et al. 2010). But, we believe, thissimulation would be useful to illustrate the possible mechanisms related tometapopulation dynamics, not evaluated in the baseline model. Dispersal betweenpopulations was estimated and modelled. We estimated that males dispersed more thanfemales (Oklander et al. 2010) and dispersalprobably occurs between four-six years of age. Dispersal rates varied between fragmentsbased on the perceived degree of connectivity and no mortality was considered. Of thedispersing individuals, assumptions were made based on Oklander et al. (2010), in which 70% were males and 30% females. Dispersalrates between populations are represented in Fig.1B. For more details about methods for metapopulation input parameters inVortex see Lacy et al. (2013) and Lacy and Pollak (2013).

Bottom Line: Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation.The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years.We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará, Santarém, PA, Brasil.

ABSTRACT
In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus