Limits...
Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion.

Mauser W, Klepper G, Zabel F, Delzeit R, Hank T, Putzenlechner B, Calzadilla A - Nat Commun (2015)

Bottom Line: Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050.By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands.The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Luisenstr. 37, 80333 Munich, Germany.

ABSTRACT
Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification.

Show MeSH

Related in: MedlinePlus

Conceptual framework for the coupled simulation of regional and global agro-economic potential biomass production increase (PBPI).The simulations of potential agro-ecological yields from PROMET (lower left) and marginal profitability resulting from balancing demand and supply in DART-BIO (upper right) are coupled (centre) to determine profit-maximizing crop allocations to land, which result in potential agro-economic yields. The exogeneous inputs to DART-BIO and PROMET are listed in the in the upper left boxes.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4660367&req=5

f5: Conceptual framework for the coupled simulation of regional and global agro-economic potential biomass production increase (PBPI).The simulations of potential agro-ecological yields from PROMET (lower left) and marginal profitability resulting from balancing demand and supply in DART-BIO (upper right) are coupled (centre) to determine profit-maximizing crop allocations to land, which result in potential agro-economic yields. The exogeneous inputs to DART-BIO and PROMET are listed in the in the upper left boxes.

Mentions: The conceptual framework of our coupled simulation approach is shown in Fig. 5. We simulate the potential agro-ecological yields of the selected crops listed in Table 1 at all agriculturally suitable geographical locations on the globe24. Urban areas, International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN)-protected areas, forests, wetlands, rangeland and unirrigated deserts are excluded21293031. We postulate current economic and climate conditions (1980–2010), the 2000 data on cropland2021 and 2007 economic conditions32.


Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion.

Mauser W, Klepper G, Zabel F, Delzeit R, Hank T, Putzenlechner B, Calzadilla A - Nat Commun (2015)

Conceptual framework for the coupled simulation of regional and global agro-economic potential biomass production increase (PBPI).The simulations of potential agro-ecological yields from PROMET (lower left) and marginal profitability resulting from balancing demand and supply in DART-BIO (upper right) are coupled (centre) to determine profit-maximizing crop allocations to land, which result in potential agro-economic yields. The exogeneous inputs to DART-BIO and PROMET are listed in the in the upper left boxes.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4660367&req=5

f5: Conceptual framework for the coupled simulation of regional and global agro-economic potential biomass production increase (PBPI).The simulations of potential agro-ecological yields from PROMET (lower left) and marginal profitability resulting from balancing demand and supply in DART-BIO (upper right) are coupled (centre) to determine profit-maximizing crop allocations to land, which result in potential agro-economic yields. The exogeneous inputs to DART-BIO and PROMET are listed in the in the upper left boxes.
Mentions: The conceptual framework of our coupled simulation approach is shown in Fig. 5. We simulate the potential agro-ecological yields of the selected crops listed in Table 1 at all agriculturally suitable geographical locations on the globe24. Urban areas, International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN)-protected areas, forests, wetlands, rangeland and unirrigated deserts are excluded21293031. We postulate current economic and climate conditions (1980–2010), the 2000 data on cropland2021 and 2007 economic conditions32.

Bottom Line: Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050.By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands.The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Luisenstr. 37, 80333 Munich, Germany.

ABSTRACT
Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus