Limits...
Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion.

Mauser W, Klepper G, Zabel F, Delzeit R, Hank T, Putzenlechner B, Calzadilla A - Nat Commun (2015)

Bottom Line: Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050.By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands.The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Luisenstr. 37, 80333 Munich, Germany.

ABSTRACT
Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Log–log scatterplots of potential agro-ecological yields and production.(a) Yields in tha−1 and (b) production in Mt comparing the PROMET model results and the FAO-GAEZ1415 model results for coinciding crops and regions. The dotted lines show the 95% confidence bounds of the regression line.
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f2: Log–log scatterplots of potential agro-ecological yields and production.(a) Yields in tha−1 and (b) production in Mt comparing the PROMET model results and the FAO-GAEZ1415 model results for coinciding crops and regions. The dotted lines show the 95% confidence bounds of the regression line.

Mentions: Figure 2a uses the biophysical simulation results of potential agro-ecological yield (t ha−1) of PROMET and FAO-GAEZ for all compared crops and regions to detail the comparison. We use log–log representation to allow detailed representation of small and large yields and production. The linear correlation (r2=0.85, mean absolute error (MAE)=4.66) shows that on the regional level agro-ecological potential yields simulated with PROMET compare well with the FAO-GAEZ, even though different models, climate inputs and statistical sources on actual cropping intensities are used. Potential agro-ecological production (potential yield × harvested area) in Fig. 2b shows a very strong correlation between PROMET and FAO-GAEZ and is aggregated together with actual yield statistics to the global PBPIs shown in Fig. 1. The good agreement of FAO-GAEZ and PROMET on the global (Fig. 1) and regional (Fig. 2) level justifies using PROMET to study potential cropping intensities.


Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion.

Mauser W, Klepper G, Zabel F, Delzeit R, Hank T, Putzenlechner B, Calzadilla A - Nat Commun (2015)

Log–log scatterplots of potential agro-ecological yields and production.(a) Yields in tha−1 and (b) production in Mt comparing the PROMET model results and the FAO-GAEZ1415 model results for coinciding crops and regions. The dotted lines show the 95% confidence bounds of the regression line.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4660367&req=5

f2: Log–log scatterplots of potential agro-ecological yields and production.(a) Yields in tha−1 and (b) production in Mt comparing the PROMET model results and the FAO-GAEZ1415 model results for coinciding crops and regions. The dotted lines show the 95% confidence bounds of the regression line.
Mentions: Figure 2a uses the biophysical simulation results of potential agro-ecological yield (t ha−1) of PROMET and FAO-GAEZ for all compared crops and regions to detail the comparison. We use log–log representation to allow detailed representation of small and large yields and production. The linear correlation (r2=0.85, mean absolute error (MAE)=4.66) shows that on the regional level agro-ecological potential yields simulated with PROMET compare well with the FAO-GAEZ, even though different models, climate inputs and statistical sources on actual cropping intensities are used. Potential agro-ecological production (potential yield × harvested area) in Fig. 2b shows a very strong correlation between PROMET and FAO-GAEZ and is aggregated together with actual yield statistics to the global PBPIs shown in Fig. 1. The good agreement of FAO-GAEZ and PROMET on the global (Fig. 1) and regional (Fig. 2) level justifies using PROMET to study potential cropping intensities.

Bottom Line: Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050.By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands.The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Luisenstr. 37, 80333 Munich, Germany.

ABSTRACT
Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus