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Rapid Recent Warming of Coral Reefs in the Florida Keys.

Manzello DP - Sci Rep (2015)

Bottom Line: The oldest known in-situ temperature record of any coral reef is from Hens and Chickens Reef (H&C) in the Florida Keys, which showed significant warming from 1975-2014.The measured rate of warming predicts the start of annual bleaching between 2020 and 2034, sooner than expected from climate models and satellite-based sea temperatures.These data show that thermal stress is increasing and occurring on a near-annual basis on Florida Keys reefs due to ocean warming from climate change.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories (AOML), NOAA, 4301 Rickenbacker Cswy., Miami, FL 33149.

ABSTRACT
Coral reef decline in the Florida Keys has been well-publicized, controversial, and polarizing owing to debate over the causative agent being climate change versus overfishing. The recurrence of mass bleaching in 2014, the sixth event since 1987, prompted a reanalysis of temperature data. The summer and winter of 2014 were the warmest on record. The oldest known in-situ temperature record of any coral reef is from Hens and Chickens Reef (H&C) in the Florida Keys, which showed significant warming from 1975-2014. The average number of days ≥31.5 and 32(o)C per year increased 2670% and 2560%, respectively, from the mid-1990 s to present relative to the previous 20 years. In every year after 1992 and 1994, maximum daily average temperatures exceeded 30.5 and 31°C, respectively. From 1975-1994, temperatures were <31 °C in 61% of years, and in 44% of the years prior to 1992 temperatures were <30.5 °C. The measured rate of warming predicts the start of annual bleaching between 2020 and 2034, sooner than expected from climate models and satellite-based sea temperatures. These data show that thermal stress is increasing and occurring on a near-annual basis on Florida Keys reefs due to ocean warming from climate change.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Number of days ≥30.5 (a), 31 (b), and 31.5 °C (c) at Hens and Chickens Reef plotted by year from 1975-2014. Solid circles are Hens and Chickens data (H&C), open circles are the points predicted by the regression with Snake Creek data (SC predicted). Poisson linear regression lines shown for H&C (solid line), H&C plus SC predicted (dashed line) and H&C with ENSO years removed (orange line).
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f4: Number of days ≥30.5 (a), 31 (b), and 31.5 °C (c) at Hens and Chickens Reef plotted by year from 1975-2014. Solid circles are Hens and Chickens data (H&C), open circles are the points predicted by the regression with Snake Creek data (SC predicted). Poisson linear regression lines shown for H&C (solid line), H&C plus SC predicted (dashed line) and H&C with ENSO years removed (orange line).

Mentions: The summer of 2014 and winter of 2013–2014 were the warmest on record for MLRF (Fig. 3). Prior to 2014, the warmest winter and summer on record were in 1997 at the start of the extreme 1997–1998 El Niño warming event. H&C exhibited a significant warming trend from 1975–2014 for number of days ≥30.5, 31, 31.5, and 32 °C, illustrating that the exposure of corals to thermally stressful conditions has increased significantly over the past 40 years (Fig. 4, Table S1). These trends held when the anomalous El Niño years of 1997–1998 were removed, except for days ≥32 °C. The lack of significance for days ≥32 °C is likely because only three out of the 26 years of data had non-zero values (1980, 2005, 2014). Seventeen of the past 27 years at MLRF were warmer than the climatology. In spite of this, there were no trends in: 1) the entire MRLF dataset (all data with time), 2) monthly mean temperatures (each month by year), or 3) days ≥30, 30.5, and 31 °C. However, when the El Niño years of 1997–1998 were removed, the trends for days ≥30.5 and 31 °C with time were positive and significant (Table S1). As previously mentioned, the MLRF dataset was initiated after the first mass bleaching event in the Florida Keys and temperatures at H&C warmed considerably in the early 1990 s (Fig. 4, Table 1). This coupled with the anomalously warm El Niño years of 1997–1998 could explain the muted warming signal for MLRF, as it likely biased the first 10 years of data towards higher values.


Rapid Recent Warming of Coral Reefs in the Florida Keys.

Manzello DP - Sci Rep (2015)

Number of days ≥30.5 (a), 31 (b), and 31.5 °C (c) at Hens and Chickens Reef plotted by year from 1975-2014. Solid circles are Hens and Chickens data (H&C), open circles are the points predicted by the regression with Snake Creek data (SC predicted). Poisson linear regression lines shown for H&C (solid line), H&C plus SC predicted (dashed line) and H&C with ENSO years removed (orange line).
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4645222&req=5

f4: Number of days ≥30.5 (a), 31 (b), and 31.5 °C (c) at Hens and Chickens Reef plotted by year from 1975-2014. Solid circles are Hens and Chickens data (H&C), open circles are the points predicted by the regression with Snake Creek data (SC predicted). Poisson linear regression lines shown for H&C (solid line), H&C plus SC predicted (dashed line) and H&C with ENSO years removed (orange line).
Mentions: The summer of 2014 and winter of 2013–2014 were the warmest on record for MLRF (Fig. 3). Prior to 2014, the warmest winter and summer on record were in 1997 at the start of the extreme 1997–1998 El Niño warming event. H&C exhibited a significant warming trend from 1975–2014 for number of days ≥30.5, 31, 31.5, and 32 °C, illustrating that the exposure of corals to thermally stressful conditions has increased significantly over the past 40 years (Fig. 4, Table S1). These trends held when the anomalous El Niño years of 1997–1998 were removed, except for days ≥32 °C. The lack of significance for days ≥32 °C is likely because only three out of the 26 years of data had non-zero values (1980, 2005, 2014). Seventeen of the past 27 years at MLRF were warmer than the climatology. In spite of this, there were no trends in: 1) the entire MRLF dataset (all data with time), 2) monthly mean temperatures (each month by year), or 3) days ≥30, 30.5, and 31 °C. However, when the El Niño years of 1997–1998 were removed, the trends for days ≥30.5 and 31 °C with time were positive and significant (Table S1). As previously mentioned, the MLRF dataset was initiated after the first mass bleaching event in the Florida Keys and temperatures at H&C warmed considerably in the early 1990 s (Fig. 4, Table 1). This coupled with the anomalously warm El Niño years of 1997–1998 could explain the muted warming signal for MLRF, as it likely biased the first 10 years of data towards higher values.

Bottom Line: The oldest known in-situ temperature record of any coral reef is from Hens and Chickens Reef (H&C) in the Florida Keys, which showed significant warming from 1975-2014.The measured rate of warming predicts the start of annual bleaching between 2020 and 2034, sooner than expected from climate models and satellite-based sea temperatures.These data show that thermal stress is increasing and occurring on a near-annual basis on Florida Keys reefs due to ocean warming from climate change.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories (AOML), NOAA, 4301 Rickenbacker Cswy., Miami, FL 33149.

ABSTRACT
Coral reef decline in the Florida Keys has been well-publicized, controversial, and polarizing owing to debate over the causative agent being climate change versus overfishing. The recurrence of mass bleaching in 2014, the sixth event since 1987, prompted a reanalysis of temperature data. The summer and winter of 2014 were the warmest on record. The oldest known in-situ temperature record of any coral reef is from Hens and Chickens Reef (H&C) in the Florida Keys, which showed significant warming from 1975-2014. The average number of days ≥31.5 and 32(o)C per year increased 2670% and 2560%, respectively, from the mid-1990 s to present relative to the previous 20 years. In every year after 1992 and 1994, maximum daily average temperatures exceeded 30.5 and 31°C, respectively. From 1975-1994, temperatures were <31 °C in 61% of years, and in 44% of the years prior to 1992 temperatures were <30.5 °C. The measured rate of warming predicts the start of annual bleaching between 2020 and 2034, sooner than expected from climate models and satellite-based sea temperatures. These data show that thermal stress is increasing and occurring on a near-annual basis on Florida Keys reefs due to ocean warming from climate change.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus