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Radiological dose reconstruction for birds reconciles outcomes of Fukushima with knowledge of dose-effect relationships.

Garnier-Laplace J, Beaugelin-Seiller K, Della-Vedova C, Métivier JM, Ritz C, Mousseau TA, Møller AP - Sci Rep (2015)

Bottom Line: Among the 57 species constituting the observed bird community, we found that 90% were likely chronically exposed at a dose rate that could potentially affect their reproductive success.We estimated that a total dose of 0.55 Gy reduced by 50% the total number of birds in the study area over 2011-2014.The data also suggest a significant positive relationship between total dose and species diversity.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, Pôle Radioprotection, Environnement, Déchets, Crise, PRP-ENV/SERIS, Cadarache, Bâtiment 159, BP3, F-13115 Saint Paul lez Durance Cedex, France.

ABSTRACT
We reconstructed the radiological dose for birds observed at 300 census sites in the 50-km northwest area affected by the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant over 2011-2014. Substituting the ambient dose rate measured at the census points (from 0.16 to 31 μGy h(-1)) with the dose rate reconstructed for adult birds of each species (from 0.3 to 97 μGy h(-1)), we confirmed that the overall bird abundance at Fukushima decreased with increasing total doses. This relationship was directly consistent with exposure levels found in the literature to induce physiological disturbances in birds. Among the 57 species constituting the observed bird community, we found that 90% were likely chronically exposed at a dose rate that could potentially affect their reproductive success. We quantified a loss of 22.6% of the total number of individuals per increment of one unit log10-tansformed total dose (in Gy), over the four-year post-accident period in the explored area. We estimated that a total dose of 0.55 Gy reduced by 50% the total number of birds in the study area over 2011-2014. The data also suggest a significant positive relationship between total dose and species diversity.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

(a) Effect display44 for the calculated total dose (log10-transformed) predictor of total number of birds (TNB), in the fitted GLMM. After controlling for the possible confounding variables, the total number of birds decreased by 22.6% per unit of log10 total dose. Note that the vertical axis is on a scale of the linear predictor with axis tick marks labelled on the scale of the response (TNB). The decrease is highly significant (z = −4.06, p < 0.0001; unstandardised partial slope (SE) = −0.256 (0.063)). (b) Effect display for the calculated total dose (log10-transformed) predictor of Simpson’s index of diversity, in the fitted LMM. After controlling for the possible confounding variables, the probability that two individuals belonged to different species increases linearly by 4.5% per unit of log10 total dose. The increase is significant (t = 2.3, p < 0.025; unstandardised partial slope (SE) = −0.045 (0.020)); Grey bands in the panels represent the 95% confidence intervals around the fits.
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f3: (a) Effect display44 for the calculated total dose (log10-transformed) predictor of total number of birds (TNB), in the fitted GLMM. After controlling for the possible confounding variables, the total number of birds decreased by 22.6% per unit of log10 total dose. Note that the vertical axis is on a scale of the linear predictor with axis tick marks labelled on the scale of the response (TNB). The decrease is highly significant (z = −4.06, p < 0.0001; unstandardised partial slope (SE) = −0.256 (0.063)). (b) Effect display for the calculated total dose (log10-transformed) predictor of Simpson’s index of diversity, in the fitted LMM. After controlling for the possible confounding variables, the probability that two individuals belonged to different species increases linearly by 4.5% per unit of log10 total dose. The increase is significant (t = 2.3, p < 0.025; unstandardised partial slope (SE) = −0.045 (0.020)); Grey bands in the panels represent the 95% confidence intervals around the fits.

Mentions: The total number of birds decreased significantly with increasing total dose (log10-transformed) (Table 2; z = −4.060, p < 0.0001; standardised partial slope (SE) = −0.299 (0.074)), altitude (z = −5.980, p < 0.0001; standardised partial slope (SE) = −0.275 (0.046)), grass as land cover (z = −4.980, p < 0.0001; standardised partial slope (SE) = −0.173 (0.035)) and temperature (z = −2.400, p = 0.016; standardised partial slope (SE) = −0.182 (0.076)). The total number of birds increased significantly with increasing “cover by farmland” (z = 5.790, p < 0.0001; standardised partial slope (SE) = 0.266 (0.046)). In addition, the total number of birds differed significantly among the categories of wind speed, and had a significant curvilinear relation with time (z = 5.050, p < 0.0001; standardised coefficient (SE) = 0.352 (0.070)). Total dose (log10-transformed) was among predictors having the greatest effects on the total number of birds. Using the unstandardised partial slope of total dose (log10-transformed) (Table 2), we estimated a loss of 22.6% with CI 95% [12.4; 31.6] (i.e. the loss being calculated as [exp (−0.256) − 1]) of the total number of birds per unit of log10-transformed total dose (in Gy), i.e. each time the total dose increases by a factor 10 (Fig. 3a).


Radiological dose reconstruction for birds reconciles outcomes of Fukushima with knowledge of dose-effect relationships.

Garnier-Laplace J, Beaugelin-Seiller K, Della-Vedova C, Métivier JM, Ritz C, Mousseau TA, Møller AP - Sci Rep (2015)

(a) Effect display44 for the calculated total dose (log10-transformed) predictor of total number of birds (TNB), in the fitted GLMM. After controlling for the possible confounding variables, the total number of birds decreased by 22.6% per unit of log10 total dose. Note that the vertical axis is on a scale of the linear predictor with axis tick marks labelled on the scale of the response (TNB). The decrease is highly significant (z = −4.06, p < 0.0001; unstandardised partial slope (SE) = −0.256 (0.063)). (b) Effect display for the calculated total dose (log10-transformed) predictor of Simpson’s index of diversity, in the fitted LMM. After controlling for the possible confounding variables, the probability that two individuals belonged to different species increases linearly by 4.5% per unit of log10 total dose. The increase is significant (t = 2.3, p < 0.025; unstandardised partial slope (SE) = −0.045 (0.020)); Grey bands in the panels represent the 95% confidence intervals around the fits.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4645120&req=5

f3: (a) Effect display44 for the calculated total dose (log10-transformed) predictor of total number of birds (TNB), in the fitted GLMM. After controlling for the possible confounding variables, the total number of birds decreased by 22.6% per unit of log10 total dose. Note that the vertical axis is on a scale of the linear predictor with axis tick marks labelled on the scale of the response (TNB). The decrease is highly significant (z = −4.06, p < 0.0001; unstandardised partial slope (SE) = −0.256 (0.063)). (b) Effect display for the calculated total dose (log10-transformed) predictor of Simpson’s index of diversity, in the fitted LMM. After controlling for the possible confounding variables, the probability that two individuals belonged to different species increases linearly by 4.5% per unit of log10 total dose. The increase is significant (t = 2.3, p < 0.025; unstandardised partial slope (SE) = −0.045 (0.020)); Grey bands in the panels represent the 95% confidence intervals around the fits.
Mentions: The total number of birds decreased significantly with increasing total dose (log10-transformed) (Table 2; z = −4.060, p < 0.0001; standardised partial slope (SE) = −0.299 (0.074)), altitude (z = −5.980, p < 0.0001; standardised partial slope (SE) = −0.275 (0.046)), grass as land cover (z = −4.980, p < 0.0001; standardised partial slope (SE) = −0.173 (0.035)) and temperature (z = −2.400, p = 0.016; standardised partial slope (SE) = −0.182 (0.076)). The total number of birds increased significantly with increasing “cover by farmland” (z = 5.790, p < 0.0001; standardised partial slope (SE) = 0.266 (0.046)). In addition, the total number of birds differed significantly among the categories of wind speed, and had a significant curvilinear relation with time (z = 5.050, p < 0.0001; standardised coefficient (SE) = 0.352 (0.070)). Total dose (log10-transformed) was among predictors having the greatest effects on the total number of birds. Using the unstandardised partial slope of total dose (log10-transformed) (Table 2), we estimated a loss of 22.6% with CI 95% [12.4; 31.6] (i.e. the loss being calculated as [exp (−0.256) − 1]) of the total number of birds per unit of log10-transformed total dose (in Gy), i.e. each time the total dose increases by a factor 10 (Fig. 3a).

Bottom Line: Among the 57 species constituting the observed bird community, we found that 90% were likely chronically exposed at a dose rate that could potentially affect their reproductive success.We estimated that a total dose of 0.55 Gy reduced by 50% the total number of birds in the study area over 2011-2014.The data also suggest a significant positive relationship between total dose and species diversity.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, Pôle Radioprotection, Environnement, Déchets, Crise, PRP-ENV/SERIS, Cadarache, Bâtiment 159, BP3, F-13115 Saint Paul lez Durance Cedex, France.

ABSTRACT
We reconstructed the radiological dose for birds observed at 300 census sites in the 50-km northwest area affected by the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant over 2011-2014. Substituting the ambient dose rate measured at the census points (from 0.16 to 31 μGy h(-1)) with the dose rate reconstructed for adult birds of each species (from 0.3 to 97 μGy h(-1)), we confirmed that the overall bird abundance at Fukushima decreased with increasing total doses. This relationship was directly consistent with exposure levels found in the literature to induce physiological disturbances in birds. Among the 57 species constituting the observed bird community, we found that 90% were likely chronically exposed at a dose rate that could potentially affect their reproductive success. We quantified a loss of 22.6% of the total number of individuals per increment of one unit log10-tansformed total dose (in Gy), over the four-year post-accident period in the explored area. We estimated that a total dose of 0.55 Gy reduced by 50% the total number of birds in the study area over 2011-2014. The data also suggest a significant positive relationship between total dose and species diversity.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus