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The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus.

Liao E, Lu W, Yan XH, Jiang Y, Kidwell A - Sci Rep (2015)

Bottom Line: Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently.Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes.This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China.

ABSTRACT
Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

The time series of standardized yearly SST and four changing patterns.(a) The time series of standardized yearly SST at each coastal location (total 19276), sorted by four changing patterns. (b) The distribution of four changing patterns along the world’s coastlines. The first pattern is that the SST increased in the warming period (1982–1997), then decreased in the hiatus period (1998–2013), which is P1 in the panel a and blue star mark in the panel b. The second pattern is SST decreased in the first period, then increased in the second period, which is P2 in the panel a and black plus mark in the panel b. The third pattern is SST continued decreasing, which is P3 in the panel a and green circle mark in the panel b. The fourth pattern is SST continued increasing, which is P4 in the panel a and red x mark in the panel b. See Method section for the methods to obtain the yearly SST time series. We generated the two sub-panels (a,b) using Matlab and integrated the sub-panels into this figure.
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f1: The time series of standardized yearly SST and four changing patterns.(a) The time series of standardized yearly SST at each coastal location (total 19276), sorted by four changing patterns. (b) The distribution of four changing patterns along the world’s coastlines. The first pattern is that the SST increased in the warming period (1982–1997), then decreased in the hiatus period (1998–2013), which is P1 in the panel a and blue star mark in the panel b. The second pattern is SST decreased in the first period, then increased in the second period, which is P2 in the panel a and black plus mark in the panel b. The third pattern is SST continued decreasing, which is P3 in the panel a and green circle mark in the panel b. The fourth pattern is SST continued increasing, which is P4 in the panel a and red x mark in the panel b. See Method section for the methods to obtain the yearly SST time series. We generated the two sub-panels (a,b) using Matlab and integrated the sub-panels into this figure.

Mentions: The SST data is separated into two different periods (1982–1997, hereafter called warming period; 1998–2013, hereafter called hiatus period) for analysis. Globally, the trend of global mean coastal SST was 0.17 ± 0.11 °C/decade (95% confidence interval) in the warming period and reduced to 0.11 ± 0.09 °C/decade during the hiatus period. In order to better depict variations in these two time periods, yearly SSTs are filtered using a 10-year moving average (Fig. 1). Specifically, temporal variations in these two periods can be classified into four patterns (Fig. 1) that are (a) SST increased in the warming period (0.26 ± 0.10 °C/decade, mean trend), and then decreased in the hiatus period (−0.24 ± 0.11 °C/decade), which is P1 in the Fig. 1a and blue star mark in the Fig. 1b; (b) SST first decreased (−0.11 ± 0.08 °C/decade), and then increased (0.27 ± 0.09 °C/decade), which is P2 in the Fig. 1a and black plus mark in the Fig. 1b; (c) SST continued decreasing (−0.07 ± 0.06 and −0.09 ± 0.11 °C/decade), which is P3 in the Fig. 1a and green circle mark in the Fig. 1b; (d) SST continued increasing (0.20 ± 0.11 and 0.31 ± 0.11 °C/decade), which is P4 in the Fig. 1a and red x mark in the Fig. 1b. The first pattern occupied 31.4% of the global coastlines (Fig. 1b) and primarily distributed in the low and mid latitudes (60°S–60°N, defined in the Method section). This pattern changing from warming to cooling is compatible with the present global climate shift. The second pattern is discontinuously distributed in 17.9% of the global coastlines (e.g., the western tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean, Fig. 1b). The third pattern primarily appeared in the Polar Regions. The fourth pattern (continued warming), corresponding with the global warming, is located in nearly half of the global coastlines (46.7%, Fig. 1b). These findings suggest that, while coastal warming was still the major pattern during the hiatus period, cooling was observed along numerous coastlines (35.4%), with a majority of the cooling coastlines occurring in the low and mid latitudes.


The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus.

Liao E, Lu W, Yan XH, Jiang Y, Kidwell A - Sci Rep (2015)

The time series of standardized yearly SST and four changing patterns.(a) The time series of standardized yearly SST at each coastal location (total 19276), sorted by four changing patterns. (b) The distribution of four changing patterns along the world’s coastlines. The first pattern is that the SST increased in the warming period (1982–1997), then decreased in the hiatus period (1998–2013), which is P1 in the panel a and blue star mark in the panel b. The second pattern is SST decreased in the first period, then increased in the second period, which is P2 in the panel a and black plus mark in the panel b. The third pattern is SST continued decreasing, which is P3 in the panel a and green circle mark in the panel b. The fourth pattern is SST continued increasing, which is P4 in the panel a and red x mark in the panel b. See Method section for the methods to obtain the yearly SST time series. We generated the two sub-panels (a,b) using Matlab and integrated the sub-panels into this figure.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4644973&req=5

f1: The time series of standardized yearly SST and four changing patterns.(a) The time series of standardized yearly SST at each coastal location (total 19276), sorted by four changing patterns. (b) The distribution of four changing patterns along the world’s coastlines. The first pattern is that the SST increased in the warming period (1982–1997), then decreased in the hiatus period (1998–2013), which is P1 in the panel a and blue star mark in the panel b. The second pattern is SST decreased in the first period, then increased in the second period, which is P2 in the panel a and black plus mark in the panel b. The third pattern is SST continued decreasing, which is P3 in the panel a and green circle mark in the panel b. The fourth pattern is SST continued increasing, which is P4 in the panel a and red x mark in the panel b. See Method section for the methods to obtain the yearly SST time series. We generated the two sub-panels (a,b) using Matlab and integrated the sub-panels into this figure.
Mentions: The SST data is separated into two different periods (1982–1997, hereafter called warming period; 1998–2013, hereafter called hiatus period) for analysis. Globally, the trend of global mean coastal SST was 0.17 ± 0.11 °C/decade (95% confidence interval) in the warming period and reduced to 0.11 ± 0.09 °C/decade during the hiatus period. In order to better depict variations in these two time periods, yearly SSTs are filtered using a 10-year moving average (Fig. 1). Specifically, temporal variations in these two periods can be classified into four patterns (Fig. 1) that are (a) SST increased in the warming period (0.26 ± 0.10 °C/decade, mean trend), and then decreased in the hiatus period (−0.24 ± 0.11 °C/decade), which is P1 in the Fig. 1a and blue star mark in the Fig. 1b; (b) SST first decreased (−0.11 ± 0.08 °C/decade), and then increased (0.27 ± 0.09 °C/decade), which is P2 in the Fig. 1a and black plus mark in the Fig. 1b; (c) SST continued decreasing (−0.07 ± 0.06 and −0.09 ± 0.11 °C/decade), which is P3 in the Fig. 1a and green circle mark in the Fig. 1b; (d) SST continued increasing (0.20 ± 0.11 and 0.31 ± 0.11 °C/decade), which is P4 in the Fig. 1a and red x mark in the Fig. 1b. The first pattern occupied 31.4% of the global coastlines (Fig. 1b) and primarily distributed in the low and mid latitudes (60°S–60°N, defined in the Method section). This pattern changing from warming to cooling is compatible with the present global climate shift. The second pattern is discontinuously distributed in 17.9% of the global coastlines (e.g., the western tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean, Fig. 1b). The third pattern primarily appeared in the Polar Regions. The fourth pattern (continued warming), corresponding with the global warming, is located in nearly half of the global coastlines (46.7%, Fig. 1b). These findings suggest that, while coastal warming was still the major pattern during the hiatus period, cooling was observed along numerous coastlines (35.4%), with a majority of the cooling coastlines occurring in the low and mid latitudes.

Bottom Line: Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently.Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes.This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China.

ABSTRACT
Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus