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Impact and Cost of the HIV/AIDS National Strategic Plan for Mozambique, 2015-2019--Projections with the Spectrum/Goals Model.

Korenromp EL, Gobet B, Fazito E, Lara J, Bollinger L, Stover J - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: Additional scale-up of prevention interventions targeting high-risk groups, with improved patient retention on ART, could further reduce burden to 65,000 new infections and 51,000 HIV-related deaths in 2019.Infections averted are driven by scale-up of interventions targeting sex work (North, rising epidemic) and voluntary male circumcision (Center & South, generalized epidemics).The NSP could aim to reduce annual new HIV infections and deaths by 2019 by 30% and 40%, respectively, from 2014 levels.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Avenir Health, Geneva, Switzerland/Glastonbury, United States of America.

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Mozambique continues to face a severe HIV epidemic and high cost for its control, largely born by international donors. We assessed feasible targets, likely impact and costs for the 2015-2019 national strategic HIV/AIDS plan (NSP).

Methods: The HIV epidemic and response was modelled in the Spectrum/Goals/Resource Needs dynamical simulation model, separately for North/Center/South regions, fitted to antenatal clinic surveillance data, household and key risk group surveys, program statistics, and financial records. Intervention targets were defined in collaboration with the National AIDS Council, Ministry of Health, technical partners and implementing NGOs, considering existing commitments.

Results: Implementing the NSP to meet existing coverage targets would reduce annual new infections among all ages from 105,000 in 2014 to 78,000 in 2019, and reduce annual HIV/AIDS-related deaths from 80,000 to 56,000. Additional scale-up of prevention interventions targeting high-risk groups, with improved patient retention on ART, could further reduce burden to 65,000 new infections and 51,000 HIV-related deaths in 2019. Program cost would increase from US$ 273 million in 2014, to US$ 433 million in 2019 for 'Current targets', or US$ 495 million in 2019 for 'Accelerated scale-up'. The 'Accelerated scale-up' would lower cost per infection averted, due to an enhanced focus on behavioural prevention for high-risk groups. Cost and mortality impact are driven by ART, which accounts for 53% of resource needs in 2019. Infections averted are driven by scale-up of interventions targeting sex work (North, rising epidemic) and voluntary male circumcision (Center & South, generalized epidemics).

Conclusion: The NSP could aim to reduce annual new HIV infections and deaths by 2019 by 30% and 40%, respectively, from 2014 levels. Achieving incidence and mortality reductions corresponding to UNAIDS' 'Fast track' targets will require increased ART coverage and additional behavioural prevention targeting key risk groups.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Costs and cost drivers of the Mozambique NSP 2015–2019: a) Resource needs, by scenario and intervention; b) PLWH on first-line and second-line ART, ‘Accelerated scale-up’ scenario; c) ART cost break-down, ‘Accelerated scale-up’ scenario.In (a), the dashed line represents resources available and committed from within the national government, other Mozambican implementers, the Global Fund, PEPFAR and other donors–as of January 2015.
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pone.0142908.g004: Costs and cost drivers of the Mozambique NSP 2015–2019: a) Resource needs, by scenario and intervention; b) PLWH on first-line and second-line ART, ‘Accelerated scale-up’ scenario; c) ART cost break-down, ‘Accelerated scale-up’ scenario.In (a), the dashed line represents resources available and committed from within the national government, other Mozambican implementers, the Global Fund, PEPFAR and other donors–as of January 2015.

Mentions: From US$ 273 million program cost in 2014, NSP scenarios require increased resources, to US$ 319 million in 2019 under constant coverage (due to population growth, and increasing need of ART and PMTCT as PLWH progress clinically), US$ 433 million for ‘Current targets’, or US$ 495 million for ‘Accelerated scale-up’ (Fig 4A).


Impact and Cost of the HIV/AIDS National Strategic Plan for Mozambique, 2015-2019--Projections with the Spectrum/Goals Model.

Korenromp EL, Gobet B, Fazito E, Lara J, Bollinger L, Stover J - PLoS ONE (2015)

Costs and cost drivers of the Mozambique NSP 2015–2019: a) Resource needs, by scenario and intervention; b) PLWH on first-line and second-line ART, ‘Accelerated scale-up’ scenario; c) ART cost break-down, ‘Accelerated scale-up’ scenario.In (a), the dashed line represents resources available and committed from within the national government, other Mozambican implementers, the Global Fund, PEPFAR and other donors–as of January 2015.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4643916&req=5

pone.0142908.g004: Costs and cost drivers of the Mozambique NSP 2015–2019: a) Resource needs, by scenario and intervention; b) PLWH on first-line and second-line ART, ‘Accelerated scale-up’ scenario; c) ART cost break-down, ‘Accelerated scale-up’ scenario.In (a), the dashed line represents resources available and committed from within the national government, other Mozambican implementers, the Global Fund, PEPFAR and other donors–as of January 2015.
Mentions: From US$ 273 million program cost in 2014, NSP scenarios require increased resources, to US$ 319 million in 2019 under constant coverage (due to population growth, and increasing need of ART and PMTCT as PLWH progress clinically), US$ 433 million for ‘Current targets’, or US$ 495 million for ‘Accelerated scale-up’ (Fig 4A).

Bottom Line: Additional scale-up of prevention interventions targeting high-risk groups, with improved patient retention on ART, could further reduce burden to 65,000 new infections and 51,000 HIV-related deaths in 2019.Infections averted are driven by scale-up of interventions targeting sex work (North, rising epidemic) and voluntary male circumcision (Center & South, generalized epidemics).The NSP could aim to reduce annual new HIV infections and deaths by 2019 by 30% and 40%, respectively, from 2014 levels.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Avenir Health, Geneva, Switzerland/Glastonbury, United States of America.

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Mozambique continues to face a severe HIV epidemic and high cost for its control, largely born by international donors. We assessed feasible targets, likely impact and costs for the 2015-2019 national strategic HIV/AIDS plan (NSP).

Methods: The HIV epidemic and response was modelled in the Spectrum/Goals/Resource Needs dynamical simulation model, separately for North/Center/South regions, fitted to antenatal clinic surveillance data, household and key risk group surveys, program statistics, and financial records. Intervention targets were defined in collaboration with the National AIDS Council, Ministry of Health, technical partners and implementing NGOs, considering existing commitments.

Results: Implementing the NSP to meet existing coverage targets would reduce annual new infections among all ages from 105,000 in 2014 to 78,000 in 2019, and reduce annual HIV/AIDS-related deaths from 80,000 to 56,000. Additional scale-up of prevention interventions targeting high-risk groups, with improved patient retention on ART, could further reduce burden to 65,000 new infections and 51,000 HIV-related deaths in 2019. Program cost would increase from US$ 273 million in 2014, to US$ 433 million in 2019 for 'Current targets', or US$ 495 million in 2019 for 'Accelerated scale-up'. The 'Accelerated scale-up' would lower cost per infection averted, due to an enhanced focus on behavioural prevention for high-risk groups. Cost and mortality impact are driven by ART, which accounts for 53% of resource needs in 2019. Infections averted are driven by scale-up of interventions targeting sex work (North, rising epidemic) and voluntary male circumcision (Center & South, generalized epidemics).

Conclusion: The NSP could aim to reduce annual new HIV infections and deaths by 2019 by 30% and 40%, respectively, from 2014 levels. Achieving incidence and mortality reductions corresponding to UNAIDS' 'Fast track' targets will require increased ART coverage and additional behavioural prevention targeting key risk groups.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus