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From Innovation to Diversification: A Simple Competitive Model.

Saracco F, Di Clemente R, Gabrielli A, Pietronero L - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: In the present article, we propose a simple dynamical model where countries compete with each other to acquire the ability to produce and export new products.Countries will have two possibilities to expand their export: innovating, i.e. introducing new goods, namely new nodes in the product networks, or copying the productive process of others, i.e. occupying a node already present in the same network.In this way, the topology of the products network and the country-product matrix evolve simultaneously, driven by the countries push toward innovation.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Istituto dei Sistemi Complessi - ISC CNR UoS "Sapienza" Physics Department Università di Roma, P.le Aldo Moro 5, 00185, Rome, Italy.

ABSTRACT
Few attempts have been proposed in order to describe the statistical features and historical evolution of the export bipartite matrix countries/products. An important standpoint is the introduction of a products network, namely a hierarchical forest of products that models the formation and the evolution of commodities. In the present article, we propose a simple dynamical model where countries compete with each other to acquire the ability to produce and export new products. Countries will have two possibilities to expand their export: innovating, i.e. introducing new goods, namely new nodes in the product networks, or copying the productive process of others, i.e. occupying a node already present in the same network. In this way, the topology of the products network and the country-product matrix evolve simultaneously, driven by the countries push toward innovation.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Probability of innovation.The evolution of the probability of innovation depending on k0 (on the horizontal axis the total number of products at the time). It is possible to observe two different phases: a first period of discoveries, when the probability of innovating is close to 1 and a second period in which the spread of the novelties increase. It is worth noticing that all slopes for k0 > 1 cluster together.
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pone.0140420.g006: Probability of innovation.The evolution of the probability of innovation depending on k0 (on the horizontal axis the total number of products at the time). It is possible to observe two different phases: a first period of discoveries, when the probability of innovating is close to 1 and a second period in which the spread of the novelties increase. It is worth noticing that all slopes for k0 > 1 cluster together.

Mentions: The total probability of introducing an innovation can be obtained assembling Eqs (3), (4) and (5):P(p*)=∑c,pP1(c)P2(c/p)P3(p*/c,p)=∑ckcγ∑c′kc′α·∑pkpβ∑p′mcp′kp′β·(k0)γ(k0)γ+∑p′′App′′(k0+kp′′)γ(6)The evolution of the probability of innovating respect to the total number of products exported at that time has been reported in Fig 6; different colors represent different values of k0, while the other parameters (α, β, γ) have been fixed respectively to (1., 1.6, 0.4). At the early stage of the evolution dynamics, the probability of innovating is obviously close to 1, as the number of branching is negligible with respect to the number of roots. This happens until the total number of products is around ∼50 for all the value examined of k0. After that threshold, the possibility of following path already developed by others countries reaches a higher value.


From Innovation to Diversification: A Simple Competitive Model.

Saracco F, Di Clemente R, Gabrielli A, Pietronero L - PLoS ONE (2015)

Probability of innovation.The evolution of the probability of innovation depending on k0 (on the horizontal axis the total number of products at the time). It is possible to observe two different phases: a first period of discoveries, when the probability of innovating is close to 1 and a second period in which the spread of the novelties increase. It is worth noticing that all slopes for k0 > 1 cluster together.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4636243&req=5

pone.0140420.g006: Probability of innovation.The evolution of the probability of innovation depending on k0 (on the horizontal axis the total number of products at the time). It is possible to observe two different phases: a first period of discoveries, when the probability of innovating is close to 1 and a second period in which the spread of the novelties increase. It is worth noticing that all slopes for k0 > 1 cluster together.
Mentions: The total probability of introducing an innovation can be obtained assembling Eqs (3), (4) and (5):P(p*)=∑c,pP1(c)P2(c/p)P3(p*/c,p)=∑ckcγ∑c′kc′α·∑pkpβ∑p′mcp′kp′β·(k0)γ(k0)γ+∑p′′App′′(k0+kp′′)γ(6)The evolution of the probability of innovating respect to the total number of products exported at that time has been reported in Fig 6; different colors represent different values of k0, while the other parameters (α, β, γ) have been fixed respectively to (1., 1.6, 0.4). At the early stage of the evolution dynamics, the probability of innovating is obviously close to 1, as the number of branching is negligible with respect to the number of roots. This happens until the total number of products is around ∼50 for all the value examined of k0. After that threshold, the possibility of following path already developed by others countries reaches a higher value.

Bottom Line: In the present article, we propose a simple dynamical model where countries compete with each other to acquire the ability to produce and export new products.Countries will have two possibilities to expand their export: innovating, i.e. introducing new goods, namely new nodes in the product networks, or copying the productive process of others, i.e. occupying a node already present in the same network.In this way, the topology of the products network and the country-product matrix evolve simultaneously, driven by the countries push toward innovation.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Istituto dei Sistemi Complessi - ISC CNR UoS "Sapienza" Physics Department Università di Roma, P.le Aldo Moro 5, 00185, Rome, Italy.

ABSTRACT
Few attempts have been proposed in order to describe the statistical features and historical evolution of the export bipartite matrix countries/products. An important standpoint is the introduction of a products network, namely a hierarchical forest of products that models the formation and the evolution of commodities. In the present article, we propose a simple dynamical model where countries compete with each other to acquire the ability to produce and export new products. Countries will have two possibilities to expand their export: innovating, i.e. introducing new goods, namely new nodes in the product networks, or copying the productive process of others, i.e. occupying a node already present in the same network. In this way, the topology of the products network and the country-product matrix evolve simultaneously, driven by the countries push toward innovation.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus