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Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century.

Bodirsky BL, Rolinski S, Biewald A, Weindl I, Popp A, Lotze-Campen H - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend.The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES).We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Dept. of Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilites, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.

ABSTRACT
Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Same as Fig 2 for animal-based calorie share CLS with formulation hA (Eq (8), SRES scenarios A1 & A2) and hB (Eq (8), SRES scenarios B1 & B2).
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getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4633131&req=5

pone.0139201.g004: Same as Fig 2 for animal-based calorie share CLS with formulation hA (Eq (8), SRES scenarios A1 & A2) and hB (Eq (8), SRES scenarios B1 & B2).

Mentions: For the monotonically increasing function hA, anova results show that ln(I) and time t are significant predictors for ln(CLS) as well as the interaction of both. The linear regression model (Eq 7, parameters in Table 5) is highly significant (Table 3) with a slope of 0.63 and intercept 0.04 (Fig 3a). Predictions with this model (Fig 4) decrease dramatically at higher incomes of 60,000 US$ from 0.42 in 2000 to 0.2 in 2100. Although the coefficients of income and time are positive, the negative coefficient for the interaction produces this decline (Table 5).


Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century.

Bodirsky BL, Rolinski S, Biewald A, Weindl I, Popp A, Lotze-Campen H - PLoS ONE (2015)

Same as Fig 2 for animal-based calorie share CLS with formulation hA (Eq (8), SRES scenarios A1 & A2) and hB (Eq (8), SRES scenarios B1 & B2).
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4633131&req=5

pone.0139201.g004: Same as Fig 2 for animal-based calorie share CLS with formulation hA (Eq (8), SRES scenarios A1 & A2) and hB (Eq (8), SRES scenarios B1 & B2).
Mentions: For the monotonically increasing function hA, anova results show that ln(I) and time t are significant predictors for ln(CLS) as well as the interaction of both. The linear regression model (Eq 7, parameters in Table 5) is highly significant (Table 3) with a slope of 0.63 and intercept 0.04 (Fig 3a). Predictions with this model (Fig 4) decrease dramatically at higher incomes of 60,000 US$ from 0.42 in 2000 to 0.2 in 2100. Although the coefficients of income and time are positive, the negative coefficient for the interaction produces this decline (Table 5).

Bottom Line: Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend.The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES).We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Dept. of Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilites, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.

ABSTRACT
Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus