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Climate Change Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality in the Netherlands: A Scenario-Based Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment.

Huynen MM, Martens P - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2015)

Bottom Line: The 2050 model results without adaptation reveal a decrease in PAFcold (8.90% at baseline; 6.56%-7.85% in 2050) that outweighs the increase in PAFheat (1.15% at baseline; 1.66%-2.52% in 2050).Hence, PAFheat and PAFcold can decrease as well as increase in view of climate change (depending on the adaptation scenario).Our results clearly illustrate that model outcomes are not only highly dependent on climate scenarios, but also on adaptation assumptions.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable Development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P.O. Box 616, 6200-MD Maastricht, The Netherlands. m.huynen@maastrichtuniversity.nl.

ABSTRACT
Although people will most likely adjust to warmer temperatures, it is still difficult to assess what this adaptation will look like. This scenario-based integrated health impacts assessment explores baseline (1981-2010) and future (2050) population attributable fractions (PAF) of mortality due to heat (PAFheat) and cold (PAFcold), by combining observed temperature-mortality relationships with the Dutch KNMI'14 climate scenarios and three adaptation scenarios. The 2050 model results without adaptation reveal a decrease in PAFcold (8.90% at baseline; 6.56%-7.85% in 2050) that outweighs the increase in PAFheat (1.15% at baseline; 1.66%-2.52% in 2050). When the 2050 model runs applying the different adaptation scenarios are considered as well, however, the PAFheat ranges between 0.94% and 2.52% and the PAFcold between 6.56% and 9.85%. Hence, PAFheat and PAFcold can decrease as well as increase in view of climate change (depending on the adaptation scenario). The associated annual mortality burdens in 2050-accounting for both the increasing temperatures and mortality trend-show that heat-related deaths will range between 1879 and 5061 (1511 at baseline) and cold-related deaths between 13,149 and 19,753 (11,727 at baseline). Our results clearly illustrate that model outcomes are not only highly dependent on climate scenarios, but also on adaptation assumptions. Hence, a better understanding of (the impact of various) plausible adaptation scenarios is required to advance future integrated health impact assessments.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Population attributable fractions (PAF) of mortality (total, cardiovascular, respiratory) due to exposure to heat and cold, at baseline (1981–2000) and in 2050 (KNMI’14 scenarios), the Netherlands: model runs with and without adaptation. Note: without AD = without adaptation; AD I = adaptation scenario I (shift in optimum temperature); AD II = adaptation scenario II (changing sensitivity to heat and cold); AD III = adaptation scenario III (adaptation scenarios I and II combined).
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ijerph-12-13295-f003: Population attributable fractions (PAF) of mortality (total, cardiovascular, respiratory) due to exposure to heat and cold, at baseline (1981–2000) and in 2050 (KNMI’14 scenarios), the Netherlands: model runs with and without adaptation. Note: without AD = without adaptation; AD I = adaptation scenario I (shift in optimum temperature); AD II = adaptation scenario II (changing sensitivity to heat and cold); AD III = adaptation scenario III (adaptation scenarios I and II combined).

Mentions: Figure 3 illustrates the PAFheat, PAFcold and PAFtemperature for total mortality in 2050 according to KNMI’14 climate scenarios, but now accounting for the different adaptation scenarios as well (Table A1 provides a detailed overview of all model run outcomes). Depending on the climate scenario and adaption scenario applied (including the option of no adaptation), the 2050 PAFheat will range between 0.94% and 2.52%, the 2050 PAFcold between 6.56% and 9.85%, and the 2050 PAFtemp between 9.02% and 10.85%. A closer look at the different model run outcomes shows that the different adaptation scenarios have different effects on the changes in PAFheat and PAFcold. The model results applying adaption scenario I (shift in optimum temperature) show a decrease in PAFheat and a slight increase in PAFcold (compared to the baseline period). As explained above, this results from the uneven distribution of temperature increase throughout the year (while the shift in optimum temperature is assumed to be proportional to the annual temperature increase). The model results applying adaptation scenario II (decreasing sensitivity to heat; increasing sensitivity to cold) show an increase in PAFheat and a decrease in PAFcold compared to the baseline period, but—as expected—these changes are smaller compared to 2050 model runs without adaptation. The 2050 model results applying adaptation scenario III (combining adaptation scenarios I and II) show a decrease in PAFheat and an increase in PAFcold compared to the baseline period.


Climate Change Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality in the Netherlands: A Scenario-Based Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment.

Huynen MM, Martens P - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2015)

Population attributable fractions (PAF) of mortality (total, cardiovascular, respiratory) due to exposure to heat and cold, at baseline (1981–2000) and in 2050 (KNMI’14 scenarios), the Netherlands: model runs with and without adaptation. Note: without AD = without adaptation; AD I = adaptation scenario I (shift in optimum temperature); AD II = adaptation scenario II (changing sensitivity to heat and cold); AD III = adaptation scenario III (adaptation scenarios I and II combined).
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

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getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4627032&req=5

ijerph-12-13295-f003: Population attributable fractions (PAF) of mortality (total, cardiovascular, respiratory) due to exposure to heat and cold, at baseline (1981–2000) and in 2050 (KNMI’14 scenarios), the Netherlands: model runs with and without adaptation. Note: without AD = without adaptation; AD I = adaptation scenario I (shift in optimum temperature); AD II = adaptation scenario II (changing sensitivity to heat and cold); AD III = adaptation scenario III (adaptation scenarios I and II combined).
Mentions: Figure 3 illustrates the PAFheat, PAFcold and PAFtemperature for total mortality in 2050 according to KNMI’14 climate scenarios, but now accounting for the different adaptation scenarios as well (Table A1 provides a detailed overview of all model run outcomes). Depending on the climate scenario and adaption scenario applied (including the option of no adaptation), the 2050 PAFheat will range between 0.94% and 2.52%, the 2050 PAFcold between 6.56% and 9.85%, and the 2050 PAFtemp between 9.02% and 10.85%. A closer look at the different model run outcomes shows that the different adaptation scenarios have different effects on the changes in PAFheat and PAFcold. The model results applying adaption scenario I (shift in optimum temperature) show a decrease in PAFheat and a slight increase in PAFcold (compared to the baseline period). As explained above, this results from the uneven distribution of temperature increase throughout the year (while the shift in optimum temperature is assumed to be proportional to the annual temperature increase). The model results applying adaptation scenario II (decreasing sensitivity to heat; increasing sensitivity to cold) show an increase in PAFheat and a decrease in PAFcold compared to the baseline period, but—as expected—these changes are smaller compared to 2050 model runs without adaptation. The 2050 model results applying adaptation scenario III (combining adaptation scenarios I and II) show a decrease in PAFheat and an increase in PAFcold compared to the baseline period.

Bottom Line: The 2050 model results without adaptation reveal a decrease in PAFcold (8.90% at baseline; 6.56%-7.85% in 2050) that outweighs the increase in PAFheat (1.15% at baseline; 1.66%-2.52% in 2050).Hence, PAFheat and PAFcold can decrease as well as increase in view of climate change (depending on the adaptation scenario).Our results clearly illustrate that model outcomes are not only highly dependent on climate scenarios, but also on adaptation assumptions.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable Development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P.O. Box 616, 6200-MD Maastricht, The Netherlands. m.huynen@maastrichtuniversity.nl.

ABSTRACT
Although people will most likely adjust to warmer temperatures, it is still difficult to assess what this adaptation will look like. This scenario-based integrated health impacts assessment explores baseline (1981-2010) and future (2050) population attributable fractions (PAF) of mortality due to heat (PAFheat) and cold (PAFcold), by combining observed temperature-mortality relationships with the Dutch KNMI'14 climate scenarios and three adaptation scenarios. The 2050 model results without adaptation reveal a decrease in PAFcold (8.90% at baseline; 6.56%-7.85% in 2050) that outweighs the increase in PAFheat (1.15% at baseline; 1.66%-2.52% in 2050). When the 2050 model runs applying the different adaptation scenarios are considered as well, however, the PAFheat ranges between 0.94% and 2.52% and the PAFcold between 6.56% and 9.85%. Hence, PAFheat and PAFcold can decrease as well as increase in view of climate change (depending on the adaptation scenario). The associated annual mortality burdens in 2050-accounting for both the increasing temperatures and mortality trend-show that heat-related deaths will range between 1879 and 5061 (1511 at baseline) and cold-related deaths between 13,149 and 19,753 (11,727 at baseline). Our results clearly illustrate that model outcomes are not only highly dependent on climate scenarios, but also on adaptation assumptions. Hence, a better understanding of (the impact of various) plausible adaptation scenarios is required to advance future integrated health impact assessments.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus