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Climate Change Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality in the Netherlands: A Scenario-Based Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment.

Huynen MM, Martens P - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2015)

Bottom Line: The 2050 model results without adaptation reveal a decrease in PAFcold (8.90% at baseline; 6.56%-7.85% in 2050) that outweighs the increase in PAFheat (1.15% at baseline; 1.66%-2.52% in 2050).Hence, PAFheat and PAFcold can decrease as well as increase in view of climate change (depending on the adaptation scenario).Our results clearly illustrate that model outcomes are not only highly dependent on climate scenarios, but also on adaptation assumptions.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable Development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P.O. Box 616, 6200-MD Maastricht, The Netherlands. m.huynen@maastrichtuniversity.nl.

ABSTRACT
Although people will most likely adjust to warmer temperatures, it is still difficult to assess what this adaptation will look like. This scenario-based integrated health impacts assessment explores baseline (1981-2010) and future (2050) population attributable fractions (PAF) of mortality due to heat (PAFheat) and cold (PAFcold), by combining observed temperature-mortality relationships with the Dutch KNMI'14 climate scenarios and three adaptation scenarios. The 2050 model results without adaptation reveal a decrease in PAFcold (8.90% at baseline; 6.56%-7.85% in 2050) that outweighs the increase in PAFheat (1.15% at baseline; 1.66%-2.52% in 2050). When the 2050 model runs applying the different adaptation scenarios are considered as well, however, the PAFheat ranges between 0.94% and 2.52% and the PAFcold between 6.56% and 9.85%. Hence, PAFheat and PAFcold can decrease as well as increase in view of climate change (depending on the adaptation scenario). The associated annual mortality burdens in 2050-accounting for both the increasing temperatures and mortality trend-show that heat-related deaths will range between 1879 and 5061 (1511 at baseline) and cold-related deaths between 13,149 and 19,753 (11,727 at baseline). Our results clearly illustrate that model outcomes are not only highly dependent on climate scenarios, but also on adaptation assumptions. Hence, a better understanding of (the impact of various) plausible adaptation scenarios is required to advance future integrated health impact assessments.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

The scenario-based integrated environmental health impact approach underlying this study.
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ijerph-12-13295-f001: The scenario-based integrated environmental health impact approach underlying this study.

Mentions: We take a scenario-based integrated environmental health impact assessment approach. The contribution of heat exposure and cold exposure to mortality is quantified using the population attributable fraction (PAF; expressed as percentage of all deaths for the selected cause of death). The PAF-based model underlying this study is based on observed exposure–response functions of temperature and mortality that are applied to a baseline period (1981–2010) and the KNMI’14 scenarios climate scenarios (2050) in order to estimate current and future population attributable fractions of mortality due to exposure to heat and cold. Calculations are performed for total mortality, cardiovascular mortality and respiratory mortality. Several model runs are conducted in order to generate outcomes with and without different adaptation scenarios. In calculating the future number of deaths attributable to heat and cold, we also account for future demographic change (mortality trend). Figure 1 provides an outline of our scenario-based approach.


Climate Change Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality in the Netherlands: A Scenario-Based Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment.

Huynen MM, Martens P - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2015)

The scenario-based integrated environmental health impact approach underlying this study.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4627032&req=5

ijerph-12-13295-f001: The scenario-based integrated environmental health impact approach underlying this study.
Mentions: We take a scenario-based integrated environmental health impact assessment approach. The contribution of heat exposure and cold exposure to mortality is quantified using the population attributable fraction (PAF; expressed as percentage of all deaths for the selected cause of death). The PAF-based model underlying this study is based on observed exposure–response functions of temperature and mortality that are applied to a baseline period (1981–2010) and the KNMI’14 scenarios climate scenarios (2050) in order to estimate current and future population attributable fractions of mortality due to exposure to heat and cold. Calculations are performed for total mortality, cardiovascular mortality and respiratory mortality. Several model runs are conducted in order to generate outcomes with and without different adaptation scenarios. In calculating the future number of deaths attributable to heat and cold, we also account for future demographic change (mortality trend). Figure 1 provides an outline of our scenario-based approach.

Bottom Line: The 2050 model results without adaptation reveal a decrease in PAFcold (8.90% at baseline; 6.56%-7.85% in 2050) that outweighs the increase in PAFheat (1.15% at baseline; 1.66%-2.52% in 2050).Hence, PAFheat and PAFcold can decrease as well as increase in view of climate change (depending on the adaptation scenario).Our results clearly illustrate that model outcomes are not only highly dependent on climate scenarios, but also on adaptation assumptions.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable Development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P.O. Box 616, 6200-MD Maastricht, The Netherlands. m.huynen@maastrichtuniversity.nl.

ABSTRACT
Although people will most likely adjust to warmer temperatures, it is still difficult to assess what this adaptation will look like. This scenario-based integrated health impacts assessment explores baseline (1981-2010) and future (2050) population attributable fractions (PAF) of mortality due to heat (PAFheat) and cold (PAFcold), by combining observed temperature-mortality relationships with the Dutch KNMI'14 climate scenarios and three adaptation scenarios. The 2050 model results without adaptation reveal a decrease in PAFcold (8.90% at baseline; 6.56%-7.85% in 2050) that outweighs the increase in PAFheat (1.15% at baseline; 1.66%-2.52% in 2050). When the 2050 model runs applying the different adaptation scenarios are considered as well, however, the PAFheat ranges between 0.94% and 2.52% and the PAFcold between 6.56% and 9.85%. Hence, PAFheat and PAFcold can decrease as well as increase in view of climate change (depending on the adaptation scenario). The associated annual mortality burdens in 2050-accounting for both the increasing temperatures and mortality trend-show that heat-related deaths will range between 1879 and 5061 (1511 at baseline) and cold-related deaths between 13,149 and 19,753 (11,727 at baseline). Our results clearly illustrate that model outcomes are not only highly dependent on climate scenarios, but also on adaptation assumptions. Hence, a better understanding of (the impact of various) plausible adaptation scenarios is required to advance future integrated health impact assessments.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus