Limits...
Regional Projections of Extreme Apparent Temperature Days in Africa and the Related Potential Risk to Human Health.

Garland RM, Matooane M, Engelbrecht FA, Bopape MJ, Landman WA, Naidoo M, Merwe Jv, Wright CY - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2015)

Bottom Line: Additionally, climate projections indicate that the increases in AT results in a moving of days from the less severe to the more severe Symptom Bands.The analysis of the rate of increasing temperatures assisted in identifying areas, such as the East African highlands, where health may be at increasing risk due to both large increases in the absolute number of hot days, and due to the high rate of increase.The projections described here can be used by health stakeholders in Africa to assist in the development of appropriate public health interventions to mitigate the potential health impacts from climate change.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Natural Resources and the Environment Unit, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria 0001, South Africa. RGarland@csir.co.za.

ABSTRACT
Regional climate modelling was used to produce high resolution climate projections for Africa, under a "business as usual scenario", that were translated into potential health impacts utilizing a heat index that relates apparent temperature to health impacts. The continent is projected to see increases in the number of days when health may be adversely affected by increasing maximum apparent temperatures (AT) due to climate change. Additionally, climate projections indicate that the increases in AT results in a moving of days from the less severe to the more severe Symptom Bands. The analysis of the rate of increasing temperatures assisted in identifying areas, such as the East African highlands, where health may be at increasing risk due to both large increases in the absolute number of hot days, and due to the high rate of increase. The projections described here can be used by health stakeholders in Africa to assist in the development of appropriate public health interventions to mitigate the potential health impacts from climate change.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Eleven-year moving average of the number of Hda2 per year in selected cities in Africa. The ensemble 10th percentile (blue), the ensemble median (black) and the ensemble 90th percentile (red) of number of days per year are shown.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4626987&req=5

ijerph-12-12577-f004: Eleven-year moving average of the number of Hda2 per year in selected cities in Africa. The ensemble 10th percentile (blue), the ensemble median (black) and the ensemble 90th percentile (red) of number of days per year are shown.

Mentions: In order to begin to understand what areas of Africa are projected to see the largest rates of increase in AT, a time series of the 11-year moving average for the number of hot days for all thresholds (i.e., Hda2, Hda3, etc.) was calculated for the full model domain (i.e., Africa). The time series for 12 selected cities are displayed in Figure 4, Figure 5 and Figure 6 below in order to highlight the projected impact on large African cities, as well as to highlight the variability in the projected increases and rate of increases (magnitude and shape) projected for the continent. The 12 cities were selected due to their large and growing populations (Table 2), and for a representative geographical spread of the areas highlighted. Those cities that were analyzed are Lagos, Nigeria; Cairo, Egypt; Kinshasa-Brazzaville conurbation, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Republic of the Congo; Johannesburg, South Africa; Mogadishu, Somalia; Khartoum, Sudan; Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; Casablanca, Morocco; Nairobi, Kenya; Luanda, Angola; Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; and Dakar, Senegal. Not all cities are shown in each figure to ease the viewing of these figures; those cities that were projected to either see no change or a very little change are not shown below, but are included in the supplementary material (Figures S5–S7).


Regional Projections of Extreme Apparent Temperature Days in Africa and the Related Potential Risk to Human Health.

Garland RM, Matooane M, Engelbrecht FA, Bopape MJ, Landman WA, Naidoo M, Merwe Jv, Wright CY - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2015)

Eleven-year moving average of the number of Hda2 per year in selected cities in Africa. The ensemble 10th percentile (blue), the ensemble median (black) and the ensemble 90th percentile (red) of number of days per year are shown.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4626987&req=5

ijerph-12-12577-f004: Eleven-year moving average of the number of Hda2 per year in selected cities in Africa. The ensemble 10th percentile (blue), the ensemble median (black) and the ensemble 90th percentile (red) of number of days per year are shown.
Mentions: In order to begin to understand what areas of Africa are projected to see the largest rates of increase in AT, a time series of the 11-year moving average for the number of hot days for all thresholds (i.e., Hda2, Hda3, etc.) was calculated for the full model domain (i.e., Africa). The time series for 12 selected cities are displayed in Figure 4, Figure 5 and Figure 6 below in order to highlight the projected impact on large African cities, as well as to highlight the variability in the projected increases and rate of increases (magnitude and shape) projected for the continent. The 12 cities were selected due to their large and growing populations (Table 2), and for a representative geographical spread of the areas highlighted. Those cities that were analyzed are Lagos, Nigeria; Cairo, Egypt; Kinshasa-Brazzaville conurbation, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Republic of the Congo; Johannesburg, South Africa; Mogadishu, Somalia; Khartoum, Sudan; Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; Casablanca, Morocco; Nairobi, Kenya; Luanda, Angola; Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; and Dakar, Senegal. Not all cities are shown in each figure to ease the viewing of these figures; those cities that were projected to either see no change or a very little change are not shown below, but are included in the supplementary material (Figures S5–S7).

Bottom Line: Additionally, climate projections indicate that the increases in AT results in a moving of days from the less severe to the more severe Symptom Bands.The analysis of the rate of increasing temperatures assisted in identifying areas, such as the East African highlands, where health may be at increasing risk due to both large increases in the absolute number of hot days, and due to the high rate of increase.The projections described here can be used by health stakeholders in Africa to assist in the development of appropriate public health interventions to mitigate the potential health impacts from climate change.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Natural Resources and the Environment Unit, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria 0001, South Africa. RGarland@csir.co.za.

ABSTRACT
Regional climate modelling was used to produce high resolution climate projections for Africa, under a "business as usual scenario", that were translated into potential health impacts utilizing a heat index that relates apparent temperature to health impacts. The continent is projected to see increases in the number of days when health may be adversely affected by increasing maximum apparent temperatures (AT) due to climate change. Additionally, climate projections indicate that the increases in AT results in a moving of days from the less severe to the more severe Symptom Bands. The analysis of the rate of increasing temperatures assisted in identifying areas, such as the East African highlands, where health may be at increasing risk due to both large increases in the absolute number of hot days, and due to the high rate of increase. The projections described here can be used by health stakeholders in Africa to assist in the development of appropriate public health interventions to mitigate the potential health impacts from climate change.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus