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Regional Projections of Extreme Apparent Temperature Days in Africa and the Related Potential Risk to Human Health.

Garland RM, Matooane M, Engelbrecht FA, Bopape MJ, Landman WA, Naidoo M, Merwe Jv, Wright CY - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2015)

Bottom Line: Additionally, climate projections indicate that the increases in AT results in a moving of days from the less severe to the more severe Symptom Bands.The analysis of the rate of increasing temperatures assisted in identifying areas, such as the East African highlands, where health may be at increasing risk due to both large increases in the absolute number of hot days, and due to the high rate of increase.The projections described here can be used by health stakeholders in Africa to assist in the development of appropriate public health interventions to mitigate the potential health impacts from climate change.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Natural Resources and the Environment Unit, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria 0001, South Africa. RGarland@csir.co.za.

ABSTRACT
Regional climate modelling was used to produce high resolution climate projections for Africa, under a "business as usual scenario", that were translated into potential health impacts utilizing a heat index that relates apparent temperature to health impacts. The continent is projected to see increases in the number of days when health may be adversely affected by increasing maximum apparent temperatures (AT) due to climate change. Additionally, climate projections indicate that the increases in AT results in a moving of days from the less severe to the more severe Symptom Bands. The analysis of the rate of increasing temperatures assisted in identifying areas, such as the East African highlands, where health may be at increasing risk due to both large increases in the absolute number of hot days, and due to the high rate of increase. The projections described here can be used by health stakeholders in Africa to assist in the development of appropriate public health interventions to mitigate the potential health impacts from climate change.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

CCAM model derived (A) average number of Hda3 per year in present climate (1961–1990); (B) change in average number of Hda3 per year in 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990; (C) average number of Hda4 per year in present climate (1961–1990); (D) change in average number of Hda4 per year in 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990; (E) average number of Hda5 per year in present climate (1961–1990); (F) change in average number of Hda5 per year in 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990.
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ijerph-12-12577-f003: CCAM model derived (A) average number of Hda3 per year in present climate (1961–1990); (B) change in average number of Hda3 per year in 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990; (C) average number of Hda4 per year in present climate (1961–1990); (D) change in average number of Hda4 per year in 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990; (E) average number of Hda5 per year in present climate (1961–1990); (F) change in average number of Hda5 per year in 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990.

Mentions: Figure 3 displays the number of days on average per year for the present day climate and the projected change in the average number of days per year in the time slice 2071–2100 for Hda3, Hda4 and Hda5 (all time slices for Hda3, Hda4 and Hda5 are displayed in Figures S2–S4 of supplementary data).


Regional Projections of Extreme Apparent Temperature Days in Africa and the Related Potential Risk to Human Health.

Garland RM, Matooane M, Engelbrecht FA, Bopape MJ, Landman WA, Naidoo M, Merwe Jv, Wright CY - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2015)

CCAM model derived (A) average number of Hda3 per year in present climate (1961–1990); (B) change in average number of Hda3 per year in 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990; (C) average number of Hda4 per year in present climate (1961–1990); (D) change in average number of Hda4 per year in 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990; (E) average number of Hda5 per year in present climate (1961–1990); (F) change in average number of Hda5 per year in 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4626987&req=5

ijerph-12-12577-f003: CCAM model derived (A) average number of Hda3 per year in present climate (1961–1990); (B) change in average number of Hda3 per year in 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990; (C) average number of Hda4 per year in present climate (1961–1990); (D) change in average number of Hda4 per year in 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990; (E) average number of Hda5 per year in present climate (1961–1990); (F) change in average number of Hda5 per year in 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990.
Mentions: Figure 3 displays the number of days on average per year for the present day climate and the projected change in the average number of days per year in the time slice 2071–2100 for Hda3, Hda4 and Hda5 (all time slices for Hda3, Hda4 and Hda5 are displayed in Figures S2–S4 of supplementary data).

Bottom Line: Additionally, climate projections indicate that the increases in AT results in a moving of days from the less severe to the more severe Symptom Bands.The analysis of the rate of increasing temperatures assisted in identifying areas, such as the East African highlands, where health may be at increasing risk due to both large increases in the absolute number of hot days, and due to the high rate of increase.The projections described here can be used by health stakeholders in Africa to assist in the development of appropriate public health interventions to mitigate the potential health impacts from climate change.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Natural Resources and the Environment Unit, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria 0001, South Africa. RGarland@csir.co.za.

ABSTRACT
Regional climate modelling was used to produce high resolution climate projections for Africa, under a "business as usual scenario", that were translated into potential health impacts utilizing a heat index that relates apparent temperature to health impacts. The continent is projected to see increases in the number of days when health may be adversely affected by increasing maximum apparent temperatures (AT) due to climate change. Additionally, climate projections indicate that the increases in AT results in a moving of days from the less severe to the more severe Symptom Bands. The analysis of the rate of increasing temperatures assisted in identifying areas, such as the East African highlands, where health may be at increasing risk due to both large increases in the absolute number of hot days, and due to the high rate of increase. The projections described here can be used by health stakeholders in Africa to assist in the development of appropriate public health interventions to mitigate the potential health impacts from climate change.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus