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Water Environmental Capacity Analysis of Taihu Lake and Parameter Estimation Based on the Integration of the Inverse Method and Bayesian Modeling.

Li R, Zou Z - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2015)

Bottom Line: The model was used to support load reduction and effective water quality management in the Taihu Lake system in eastern China.The reduction ratios of ADC during these years were also provided.All of these enable decision makers to assess the influence of each loading and visualize potential load reductions under different water quality goals, and then to formulate a reasonable water quality management strategy.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China. liranran1101@163.com.

ABSTRACT
An integrated approach using the inverse method and Bayesian approach, combined with a lake eutrophication water quality model, was developed for parameter estimation and water environmental capacity (WEC) analysis. The model was used to support load reduction and effective water quality management in the Taihu Lake system in eastern China. Water quality was surveyed yearly from 1987 to 2010. Total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were selected as water quality model variables. Decay rates of TN and TP were estimated using the proposed approach. WECs of TN and TP in 2011 were determined based on the estimated decay rates. Results showed that the historical loading was beyond the WEC, thus, reduction of nitrogen and phosphorus input is necessary to meet water quality goals. Then WEC and allowable discharge capacity (ADC) in 2015 and 2020 were predicted. The reduction ratios of ADC during these years were also provided. All of these enable decision makers to assess the influence of each loading and visualize potential load reductions under different water quality goals, and then to formulate a reasonable water quality management strategy.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

ADC in 2015 and 2020 and corresponding reduction ratio at different confidence levels for TN (a) and TP (b).
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ijerph-12-12212-f002: ADC in 2015 and 2020 and corresponding reduction ratio at different confidence levels for TN (a) and TP (b).

Mentions: In order to control TN and TP pollution and reduce the emissions reasonably, the WEC in 2015 and 2020 were predicted according to Equation (6), where the average hydraulic scour rate r was used, that is, out flow Q used the annual average data of 1987–2010. Decay rate S used the estimated data. CS (t/108 m3) used the required water quality target in Table 2. The predicted results are shown in Table S2 in the Supplementary Materials. Then, the ADC in 2015 and 2020 can be predicted according to Equation (7) and data in Table S2. As the lake pollutant emissions haven’t changed much in the past few years according to [33], here it is assumed unchangeable in the next few years. The TN and TP emissions of Taihu in 2010 are 66082 t/a and 3301 t/a, respectively. Therefore, the reduction ratio from 2010 to 2015 and from 2015 to 2020 can be calculated. All these are shown in Figure 2. In the figure, the 5%, 25% mean, 75%, and 95% are corresponding to the different confidence levels in Table S2. The ADCs in 2015 and 2020 are predicted by the estimated S. The ADC in 2010 is assured, so it is the same value under different confidence levels.


Water Environmental Capacity Analysis of Taihu Lake and Parameter Estimation Based on the Integration of the Inverse Method and Bayesian Modeling.

Li R, Zou Z - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2015)

ADC in 2015 and 2020 and corresponding reduction ratio at different confidence levels for TN (a) and TP (b).
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4626964&req=5

ijerph-12-12212-f002: ADC in 2015 and 2020 and corresponding reduction ratio at different confidence levels for TN (a) and TP (b).
Mentions: In order to control TN and TP pollution and reduce the emissions reasonably, the WEC in 2015 and 2020 were predicted according to Equation (6), where the average hydraulic scour rate r was used, that is, out flow Q used the annual average data of 1987–2010. Decay rate S used the estimated data. CS (t/108 m3) used the required water quality target in Table 2. The predicted results are shown in Table S2 in the Supplementary Materials. Then, the ADC in 2015 and 2020 can be predicted according to Equation (7) and data in Table S2. As the lake pollutant emissions haven’t changed much in the past few years according to [33], here it is assumed unchangeable in the next few years. The TN and TP emissions of Taihu in 2010 are 66082 t/a and 3301 t/a, respectively. Therefore, the reduction ratio from 2010 to 2015 and from 2015 to 2020 can be calculated. All these are shown in Figure 2. In the figure, the 5%, 25% mean, 75%, and 95% are corresponding to the different confidence levels in Table S2. The ADCs in 2015 and 2020 are predicted by the estimated S. The ADC in 2010 is assured, so it is the same value under different confidence levels.

Bottom Line: The model was used to support load reduction and effective water quality management in the Taihu Lake system in eastern China.The reduction ratios of ADC during these years were also provided.All of these enable decision makers to assess the influence of each loading and visualize potential load reductions under different water quality goals, and then to formulate a reasonable water quality management strategy.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China. liranran1101@163.com.

ABSTRACT
An integrated approach using the inverse method and Bayesian approach, combined with a lake eutrophication water quality model, was developed for parameter estimation and water environmental capacity (WEC) analysis. The model was used to support load reduction and effective water quality management in the Taihu Lake system in eastern China. Water quality was surveyed yearly from 1987 to 2010. Total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were selected as water quality model variables. Decay rates of TN and TP were estimated using the proposed approach. WECs of TN and TP in 2011 were determined based on the estimated decay rates. Results showed that the historical loading was beyond the WEC, thus, reduction of nitrogen and phosphorus input is necessary to meet water quality goals. Then WEC and allowable discharge capacity (ADC) in 2015 and 2020 were predicted. The reduction ratios of ADC during these years were also provided. All of these enable decision makers to assess the influence of each loading and visualize potential load reductions under different water quality goals, and then to formulate a reasonable water quality management strategy.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus