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Temporal and Spatial Simulation of Atmospheric Pollutant PM2.5 Changes and Risk Assessment of Population Exposure to Pollution Using Optimization Algorithms of the Back Propagation-Artificial Neural Network Model and GIS.

Zhang P, Hong B, He L, Cheng F, Zhao P, Wei C, Liu Y - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2015)

Bottom Line: Principal component analysis of the PM2.5 concentration and its influencing factors' variables extracted four components that accounted for 86.39% of the total variance.Correlation coefficients of the Levenberg-Marquardt (trainlm) and elastic (trainrp) algorithms were more than 0.8, the index of agreement (IA) ranged from 0.541 to 0.863 and from 0.502 to 0.803 by trainrp and trainlm algorithms, respectively; mean bias error (MBE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) indicated that the predicted values were very close to the observed values, and the accuracy of trainlm algorithm was better than the trainrp.Compared to 2013, temporal and spatial variation of PM2.5 concentration and risk of population exposure to pollution decreased in 2020 and 2025.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Environmental and Chemical Engineering, Xi'an Polytechnic University, Xi'an 710048, China. miracle1891@126.com.

ABSTRACT
PM2.5 pollution has become of increasing public concern because of its relative importance and sensitivity to population health risks. Accurate predictions of PM2.5 pollution and population exposure risks are crucial to developing effective air pollution control strategies. We simulated and predicted the temporal and spatial changes of PM2.5 concentration and population exposure risks, by coupling optimization algorithms of the Back Propagation-Artificial Neural Network (BP-ANN) model and a geographical information system (GIS) in Xi'an, China, for 2013, 2020, and 2025. Results indicated that PM2.5 concentration was positively correlated with GDP, SO₂, and NO₂, while it was negatively correlated with population density, average temperature, precipitation, and wind speed. Principal component analysis of the PM2.5 concentration and its influencing factors' variables extracted four components that accounted for 86.39% of the total variance. Correlation coefficients of the Levenberg-Marquardt (trainlm) and elastic (trainrp) algorithms were more than 0.8, the index of agreement (IA) ranged from 0.541 to 0.863 and from 0.502 to 0.803 by trainrp and trainlm algorithms, respectively; mean bias error (MBE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) indicated that the predicted values were very close to the observed values, and the accuracy of trainlm algorithm was better than the trainrp. Compared to 2013, temporal and spatial variation of PM2.5 concentration and risk of population exposure to pollution decreased in 2020 and 2025. The high-risk areas of population exposure to PM2.5 were mainly distributed in the northern region, where there is downtown traffic, abundant commercial activity, and more exhaust emissions. A moderate risk zone was located in the southern region associated with some industrial pollution sources, and there were mainly low-risk areas in the western and eastern regions, which are predominantly residential and educational areas.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Risk of population exposure to PM2.5 in 2025 in Xi’an, China by month: (a) January; (b) February; (c) March; (d) April; (e) May; (f) June; (g) July; (h) August; (i) September; (j) October; (k) November; (l) December.
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ijerph-12-12171-f008: Risk of population exposure to PM2.5 in 2025 in Xi’an, China by month: (a) January; (b) February; (c) March; (d) April; (e) May; (f) June; (g) July; (h) August; (i) September; (j) October; (k) November; (l) December.

Mentions: In May 2025, the high-risk areas of population exposure to PM2.5 were distributed in the north-central region, and the low-risk areas occurred in the western and north-eastern regions; the moderate risk zones were in the south-central region (Figure 8). In June 2025, high-risk areas of population exposure to PM2.5 were distributed in the northern region, and low-risk areas were located in the western and eastern regions; moderate risk zones were located in the north-central region. In July 2025, the high-risk regions of population exposure to PM2.5 were located in the north-central region, and the low-risk zones occurred in the western and north-eastern regions; the moderate risk areas were distributed in the southern region,. In November 2025, the high-risk regions of population exposure to PM2.5 were distributed in the northern region, and low-risk areas were in the western and north-eastern regions; the moderate risk zones were located in the north-central region (Figure 8).


Temporal and Spatial Simulation of Atmospheric Pollutant PM2.5 Changes and Risk Assessment of Population Exposure to Pollution Using Optimization Algorithms of the Back Propagation-Artificial Neural Network Model and GIS.

Zhang P, Hong B, He L, Cheng F, Zhao P, Wei C, Liu Y - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2015)

Risk of population exposure to PM2.5 in 2025 in Xi’an, China by month: (a) January; (b) February; (c) March; (d) April; (e) May; (f) June; (g) July; (h) August; (i) September; (j) October; (k) November; (l) December.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4626962&req=5

ijerph-12-12171-f008: Risk of population exposure to PM2.5 in 2025 in Xi’an, China by month: (a) January; (b) February; (c) March; (d) April; (e) May; (f) June; (g) July; (h) August; (i) September; (j) October; (k) November; (l) December.
Mentions: In May 2025, the high-risk areas of population exposure to PM2.5 were distributed in the north-central region, and the low-risk areas occurred in the western and north-eastern regions; the moderate risk zones were in the south-central region (Figure 8). In June 2025, high-risk areas of population exposure to PM2.5 were distributed in the northern region, and low-risk areas were located in the western and eastern regions; moderate risk zones were located in the north-central region. In July 2025, the high-risk regions of population exposure to PM2.5 were located in the north-central region, and the low-risk zones occurred in the western and north-eastern regions; the moderate risk areas were distributed in the southern region,. In November 2025, the high-risk regions of population exposure to PM2.5 were distributed in the northern region, and low-risk areas were in the western and north-eastern regions; the moderate risk zones were located in the north-central region (Figure 8).

Bottom Line: Principal component analysis of the PM2.5 concentration and its influencing factors' variables extracted four components that accounted for 86.39% of the total variance.Correlation coefficients of the Levenberg-Marquardt (trainlm) and elastic (trainrp) algorithms were more than 0.8, the index of agreement (IA) ranged from 0.541 to 0.863 and from 0.502 to 0.803 by trainrp and trainlm algorithms, respectively; mean bias error (MBE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) indicated that the predicted values were very close to the observed values, and the accuracy of trainlm algorithm was better than the trainrp.Compared to 2013, temporal and spatial variation of PM2.5 concentration and risk of population exposure to pollution decreased in 2020 and 2025.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Environmental and Chemical Engineering, Xi'an Polytechnic University, Xi'an 710048, China. miracle1891@126.com.

ABSTRACT
PM2.5 pollution has become of increasing public concern because of its relative importance and sensitivity to population health risks. Accurate predictions of PM2.5 pollution and population exposure risks are crucial to developing effective air pollution control strategies. We simulated and predicted the temporal and spatial changes of PM2.5 concentration and population exposure risks, by coupling optimization algorithms of the Back Propagation-Artificial Neural Network (BP-ANN) model and a geographical information system (GIS) in Xi'an, China, for 2013, 2020, and 2025. Results indicated that PM2.5 concentration was positively correlated with GDP, SO₂, and NO₂, while it was negatively correlated with population density, average temperature, precipitation, and wind speed. Principal component analysis of the PM2.5 concentration and its influencing factors' variables extracted four components that accounted for 86.39% of the total variance. Correlation coefficients of the Levenberg-Marquardt (trainlm) and elastic (trainrp) algorithms were more than 0.8, the index of agreement (IA) ranged from 0.541 to 0.863 and from 0.502 to 0.803 by trainrp and trainlm algorithms, respectively; mean bias error (MBE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) indicated that the predicted values were very close to the observed values, and the accuracy of trainlm algorithm was better than the trainrp. Compared to 2013, temporal and spatial variation of PM2.5 concentration and risk of population exposure to pollution decreased in 2020 and 2025. The high-risk areas of population exposure to PM2.5 were mainly distributed in the northern region, where there is downtown traffic, abundant commercial activity, and more exhaust emissions. A moderate risk zone was located in the southern region associated with some industrial pollution sources, and there were mainly low-risk areas in the western and eastern regions, which are predominantly residential and educational areas.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus