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Multiple Lattice Model for Influenza Spreading.

Liccardo A, Fierro A - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: Different communities are connected with each other by means of inter-lattices edges, with a different number of external links connecting different age class populations.The parameters of the contact network model are fixed by requiring the simulated data to fully reproduce the contact patterns matrices of the Polymod survey.The paper shows that adopting a topology which better implements the age-class community structure of the population, one gets a better agreement between experimental contact patterns and simulated data, and this also improves the accordance between simulated and experimental data on the epidemic spreading.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Physics Department, Università degli Studi di Napoli "Federico II", Napoli, Italy; Istituto Nazionale Fisica Nucleare (INFN) - Sezione di Napoli, Napoli, Italy.

ABSTRACT
Behavioral differences among age classes, together with the natural tendency of individuals to prefer contacts with individuals of similar age, naturally point to the existence of a community structure in the population network, in which each community can be identified with a different age class. Data on age-dependent contact patterns also reveal how relevant is the role of the population age structure in shaping the spreading of an infectious disease. In the present paper we propose a simple model for epidemic spreading, in which a contact network with an intrinsic community structure is coupled with a simple stochastic SIR model for the epidemic spreading. The population is divided in 4 different age-communities and hosted on a multiple lattice, each community occupying a specific age-lattice. Individuals are allowed to move freely to nearest neighbor empty sites on the age-lattice. Different communities are connected with each other by means of inter-lattices edges, with a different number of external links connecting different age class populations. The parameters of the contact network model are fixed by requiring the simulated data to fully reproduce the contact patterns matrices of the Polymod survey. The paper shows that adopting a topology which better implements the age-class community structure of the population, one gets a better agreement between experimental contact patterns and simulated data, and this also improves the accordance between simulated and experimental data on the epidemic spreading.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Contact patterns.The labels ab, with a, b ∈ {1, 2, 3, 4}, refers to contacts between age class a and age class b.
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pone.0141065.g002: Contact patterns.The labels ab, with a, b ∈ {1, 2, 3, 4}, refers to contacts between age class a and age class b.

Mentions: In Fig 2, we compare the Polymod data and the simulated values of the contact matrix, mij, for each value of D. The χ-square test performed on the contact matrix are reported in Table 3. We see that the tests are quite good in all the experiments, and they give better results if compared with those obtained in [28] where only the daily overall contacts were fitted.


Multiple Lattice Model for Influenza Spreading.

Liccardo A, Fierro A - PLoS ONE (2015)

Contact patterns.The labels ab, with a, b ∈ {1, 2, 3, 4}, refers to contacts between age class a and age class b.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4626091&req=5

pone.0141065.g002: Contact patterns.The labels ab, with a, b ∈ {1, 2, 3, 4}, refers to contacts between age class a and age class b.
Mentions: In Fig 2, we compare the Polymod data and the simulated values of the contact matrix, mij, for each value of D. The χ-square test performed on the contact matrix are reported in Table 3. We see that the tests are quite good in all the experiments, and they give better results if compared with those obtained in [28] where only the daily overall contacts were fitted.

Bottom Line: Different communities are connected with each other by means of inter-lattices edges, with a different number of external links connecting different age class populations.The parameters of the contact network model are fixed by requiring the simulated data to fully reproduce the contact patterns matrices of the Polymod survey.The paper shows that adopting a topology which better implements the age-class community structure of the population, one gets a better agreement between experimental contact patterns and simulated data, and this also improves the accordance between simulated and experimental data on the epidemic spreading.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Physics Department, Università degli Studi di Napoli "Federico II", Napoli, Italy; Istituto Nazionale Fisica Nucleare (INFN) - Sezione di Napoli, Napoli, Italy.

ABSTRACT
Behavioral differences among age classes, together with the natural tendency of individuals to prefer contacts with individuals of similar age, naturally point to the existence of a community structure in the population network, in which each community can be identified with a different age class. Data on age-dependent contact patterns also reveal how relevant is the role of the population age structure in shaping the spreading of an infectious disease. In the present paper we propose a simple model for epidemic spreading, in which a contact network with an intrinsic community structure is coupled with a simple stochastic SIR model for the epidemic spreading. The population is divided in 4 different age-communities and hosted on a multiple lattice, each community occupying a specific age-lattice. Individuals are allowed to move freely to nearest neighbor empty sites on the age-lattice. Different communities are connected with each other by means of inter-lattices edges, with a different number of external links connecting different age class populations. The parameters of the contact network model are fixed by requiring the simulated data to fully reproduce the contact patterns matrices of the Polymod survey. The paper shows that adopting a topology which better implements the age-class community structure of the population, one gets a better agreement between experimental contact patterns and simulated data, and this also improves the accordance between simulated and experimental data on the epidemic spreading.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus