Limits...
A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion.

Oakleaf JR, Kennedy CM, Baruch-Mordo S, West PC, Gerber JS, Jarvis L, Kiesecker J - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2) and could result in half of the world's biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively.Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America.With only 5% of the Earth's at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: The Nature Conservancy, Development by Design Program, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2) and could result in half of the world's biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth's at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Africa natural lands at risk to future development.Africa natural lands at high risk to future development (grey and yellow) and current at-risk natural lands benefiting from strict legal protection (yellow only).
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pone.0138334.g005: Africa natural lands at risk to future development.Africa natural lands at high risk to future development (grey and yellow) and current at-risk natural lands benefiting from strict legal protection (yellow only).

Mentions: Individual sector development threat maps (top and also shown in Figs 5–13) used to calculate the cumulative future development threat (bottom) identified by binning global lands (except Antarctica) into four equal-area categories with the “High” category defined as the quarter of the globe with the highest cumulative threat scores.


A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion.

Oakleaf JR, Kennedy CM, Baruch-Mordo S, West PC, Gerber JS, Jarvis L, Kiesecker J - PLoS ONE (2015)

Africa natural lands at risk to future development.Africa natural lands at high risk to future development (grey and yellow) and current at-risk natural lands benefiting from strict legal protection (yellow only).
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4596827&req=5

pone.0138334.g005: Africa natural lands at risk to future development.Africa natural lands at high risk to future development (grey and yellow) and current at-risk natural lands benefiting from strict legal protection (yellow only).
Mentions: Individual sector development threat maps (top and also shown in Figs 5–13) used to calculate the cumulative future development threat (bottom) identified by binning global lands (except Antarctica) into four equal-area categories with the “High” category defined as the quarter of the globe with the highest cumulative threat scores.

Bottom Line: Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2) and could result in half of the world's biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively.Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America.With only 5% of the Earth's at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: The Nature Conservancy, Development by Design Program, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2) and could result in half of the world's biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth's at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus