Limits...
The Combined Use of Correlative and Mechanistic Species Distribution Models Benefits Low Conservation Status Species.

Rougier T, Lassalle G, Drouineau H, Dumoulin N, Faure T, Deffuant G, Rochard E, Lambert P - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: Species can respond to climate change by tracking appropriate environmental conditions in space, resulting in a range shift.In this respect, the relative position of the northern range limit between the two methods strongly suggested here that a key biological process related to intraspecific variability was potentially lacking in the mechanistic SDM.Based on our knowledge, we hypothesized that local adaptations to cold temperatures deserved more attention in terms of modelling, but further in conservation planning as well.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Irstea, EABX, Aquatic Ecosystems and Global Changes research unit, 50 avenue de Verdun, Gazinet Cestas, F-33612, Cestas, France.

ABSTRACT
Species can respond to climate change by tracking appropriate environmental conditions in space, resulting in a range shift. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can help forecast such range shift responses. For few species, both correlative and mechanistic SDMs were built, but allis shad (Alosa alosa), an endangered anadromous fish species, is one of them. The main purpose of this study was to provide a framework for joint analyses of correlative and mechanistic SDMs projections in order to strengthen conservation measures for species of conservation concern. Guidelines for joint representation and subsequent interpretation of models outputs were defined and applied. The present joint analysis was based on the novel mechanistic model GR3D (Global Repositioning Dynamics of Diadromous fish Distribution) which was parameterized on allis shad and then used to predict its future distribution along the European Atlantic coast under different climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We then used a correlative SDM for this species to forecast its distribution across the same geographic area and under the same climate change scenarios. First, projections from correlative and mechanistic models provided congruent trends in probability of habitat suitability and population dynamics. This agreement was preferentially interpreted as referring to the species vulnerability to climate change. Climate change could not be accordingly listed as a major threat for allis shad. The congruence in predicted range limits between SDMs projections was the next point of interest. The difference, when noticed, required to deepen our understanding of the niche modelled by each approach. In this respect, the relative position of the northern range limit between the two methods strongly suggested here that a key biological process related to intraspecific variability was potentially lacking in the mechanistic SDM. Based on our knowledge, we hypothesized that local adaptations to cold temperatures deserved more attention in terms of modelling, but further in conservation planning as well.

No MeSH data available.


Conceptual diagram of the life cycle of anadromous species (adjusted to allis shad) represented in the GR3D model.Red boxes depicted the processes in GR3D that were influenced by temperature and orange boxes the ones that were linked to the surface area of the drainage basin. The figure was adapted from [26] for illustrative purpose only.
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pone.0139194.g001: Conceptual diagram of the life cycle of anadromous species (adjusted to allis shad) represented in the GR3D model.Red boxes depicted the processes in GR3D that were influenced by temperature and orange boxes the ones that were linked to the surface area of the drainage basin. The figure was adapted from [26] for illustrative purpose only.

Mentions: GR3D combines population dynamics, repositioning behavior through dispersal process and climatic requirements to assess local and global persistence, as well as potential changes to the distribution of diadromous fishes in response to climate change over large spatial scales. GR3D has been designed to provide a wide variety of modelling applications ranging from applied questions–where it can be parameterized for real landscapes and species as in the present work–to more theoretical studies of species dynamics under different environmental pressures. GR3D simulates a seasonal time step and has been designed to cover the entire life cycle of any diadromous fish species. The present GR3D application is centered on an anadromous species utilizing a specific computational order of life cycle events and processes as this type of diadromous species reproduces in fresh waters and grows at sea [20] (Fig 1 adapted from [26]).


The Combined Use of Correlative and Mechanistic Species Distribution Models Benefits Low Conservation Status Species.

Rougier T, Lassalle G, Drouineau H, Dumoulin N, Faure T, Deffuant G, Rochard E, Lambert P - PLoS ONE (2015)

Conceptual diagram of the life cycle of anadromous species (adjusted to allis shad) represented in the GR3D model.Red boxes depicted the processes in GR3D that were influenced by temperature and orange boxes the ones that were linked to the surface area of the drainage basin. The figure was adapted from [26] for illustrative purpose only.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4591278&req=5

pone.0139194.g001: Conceptual diagram of the life cycle of anadromous species (adjusted to allis shad) represented in the GR3D model.Red boxes depicted the processes in GR3D that were influenced by temperature and orange boxes the ones that were linked to the surface area of the drainage basin. The figure was adapted from [26] for illustrative purpose only.
Mentions: GR3D combines population dynamics, repositioning behavior through dispersal process and climatic requirements to assess local and global persistence, as well as potential changes to the distribution of diadromous fishes in response to climate change over large spatial scales. GR3D has been designed to provide a wide variety of modelling applications ranging from applied questions–where it can be parameterized for real landscapes and species as in the present work–to more theoretical studies of species dynamics under different environmental pressures. GR3D simulates a seasonal time step and has been designed to cover the entire life cycle of any diadromous fish species. The present GR3D application is centered on an anadromous species utilizing a specific computational order of life cycle events and processes as this type of diadromous species reproduces in fresh waters and grows at sea [20] (Fig 1 adapted from [26]).

Bottom Line: Species can respond to climate change by tracking appropriate environmental conditions in space, resulting in a range shift.In this respect, the relative position of the northern range limit between the two methods strongly suggested here that a key biological process related to intraspecific variability was potentially lacking in the mechanistic SDM.Based on our knowledge, we hypothesized that local adaptations to cold temperatures deserved more attention in terms of modelling, but further in conservation planning as well.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Irstea, EABX, Aquatic Ecosystems and Global Changes research unit, 50 avenue de Verdun, Gazinet Cestas, F-33612, Cestas, France.

ABSTRACT
Species can respond to climate change by tracking appropriate environmental conditions in space, resulting in a range shift. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can help forecast such range shift responses. For few species, both correlative and mechanistic SDMs were built, but allis shad (Alosa alosa), an endangered anadromous fish species, is one of them. The main purpose of this study was to provide a framework for joint analyses of correlative and mechanistic SDMs projections in order to strengthen conservation measures for species of conservation concern. Guidelines for joint representation and subsequent interpretation of models outputs were defined and applied. The present joint analysis was based on the novel mechanistic model GR3D (Global Repositioning Dynamics of Diadromous fish Distribution) which was parameterized on allis shad and then used to predict its future distribution along the European Atlantic coast under different climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We then used a correlative SDM for this species to forecast its distribution across the same geographic area and under the same climate change scenarios. First, projections from correlative and mechanistic models provided congruent trends in probability of habitat suitability and population dynamics. This agreement was preferentially interpreted as referring to the species vulnerability to climate change. Climate change could not be accordingly listed as a major threat for allis shad. The congruence in predicted range limits between SDMs projections was the next point of interest. The difference, when noticed, required to deepen our understanding of the niche modelled by each approach. In this respect, the relative position of the northern range limit between the two methods strongly suggested here that a key biological process related to intraspecific variability was potentially lacking in the mechanistic SDM. Based on our knowledge, we hypothesized that local adaptations to cold temperatures deserved more attention in terms of modelling, but further in conservation planning as well.

No MeSH data available.