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Hydroclimatic changes and drivers in the Sava River Catchment and comparison with Swedish catchments.

Levi L, Jaramillo F, Andričević R, Destouni G - Ambio (2015)

Bottom Line: In a hydropower dominated part of the SRC, unlike in an unregulated part, we find increase in average annual evapotranspiration and decrease in temporal runoff variability, which are not readily explainable by observed concurrent climate change in temperature and precipitation and may be more related to landscape-internal change drivers.Among the latter investigated here, results indicate hydropower developments as most closely related to the found hydroclimatic shifts, consistent with previous such indications in studies of Swedish hydropower catchments.Overall, the present results have quantitatively framed the recent history and present state of hydroclimate in the SRC, of relevance for water resources in several countries and for a majority of their populations.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering (SEED), Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Teknikringen 76, 100 44, Stockholm, Sweden. llevi@kth.se.

ABSTRACT
In this study, we investigate long-term hydroclimatic changes and their possible relation to regional changes in climate, land-use and water-use over the twentieth century in the transboundary Sava River Catchment (SRC) in South Eastern Europe. In a hydropower dominated part of the SRC, unlike in an unregulated part, we find increase in average annual evapotranspiration and decrease in temporal runoff variability, which are not readily explainable by observed concurrent climate change in temperature and precipitation and may be more related to landscape-internal change drivers. Among the latter investigated here, results indicate hydropower developments as most closely related to the found hydroclimatic shifts, consistent with previous such indications in studies of Swedish hydropower catchments. Overall, the present results have quantitatively framed the recent history and present state of hydroclimate in the SRC, of relevance for water resources in several countries and for a majority of their populations. This provides a useful basis for further assessment of possible future hydroclimatic changes, under different scenarios of climate change and land/water-use developments in the region.

No MeSH data available.


Change and variable co-development over the twentieth century shown as 20-year moving averages for: relative actual evapotranspiration (AETwb/P); relative evapotranspiration climate estimates of AETBclim/P and AETTclim/P (where AETBclim and AETTclim are calculated from Turc and Budyko Eqs. (2) and (3), respectively; the AETBclim and AETTclim values have been scaled by the ratio of average AETwb in 1931–1993 and corresponding average AETBclim and AETTclim, respectively); developed annual hydropower production per unit catchment area and coefficient of variation of monthly runoff (CV(R)). a Slavonski Brod. b Kozluk
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Fig3: Change and variable co-development over the twentieth century shown as 20-year moving averages for: relative actual evapotranspiration (AETwb/P); relative evapotranspiration climate estimates of AETBclim/P and AETTclim/P (where AETBclim and AETTclim are calculated from Turc and Budyko Eqs. (2) and (3), respectively; the AETBclim and AETTclim values have been scaled by the ratio of average AETwb in 1931–1993 and corresponding average AETBclim and AETTclim, respectively); developed annual hydropower production per unit catchment area and coefficient of variation of monthly runoff (CV(R)). a Slavonski Brod. b Kozluk

Mentions: In order to further investigate the possible co-development of AETwb/P and hydropower production (as a proxy of also other hydropower-related changes in the SRC, such as those in surface area and volume of man-made water reservoirs; Fig. 2d), we distinguish two subcatchments of the SRC that differ greatly in terms of their hydropower development: Slavonski Brod and Kozluk (Fig. 1). Both Slavonski Brod and Kozluk exhibit similar changes as the whole SRC with regard to increase of T, and decrease of P and R (Fig. S1, Supplementary Material). Similarly to the whole SRC, increase in AETwb/P is also evident from year 1960 in both catchments (Fig. 3), but with a 2.7 times greater change magnitude in the Kozluk catchment (shift from 0.33 to 0.41) than in the Slavonski Brod catchment (shift from 0.52 to 0.55). Increases are then also visible in the purely climate-related AETBclim/P and AETTclim/P estimates for the Slavonski Brod catchment (Fig. 3a), but not for the Kozluk catchment where AETBclim/P and AETTclim/P instead decrease (Fig. 3b); scaling factors for AETBclim and AETTclim are 1.35 and 1.18, respectively, for Slavonski Brod, and 0.88 and 0.77, respectively, for Kozluk.Fig. 3


Hydroclimatic changes and drivers in the Sava River Catchment and comparison with Swedish catchments.

Levi L, Jaramillo F, Andričević R, Destouni G - Ambio (2015)

Change and variable co-development over the twentieth century shown as 20-year moving averages for: relative actual evapotranspiration (AETwb/P); relative evapotranspiration climate estimates of AETBclim/P and AETTclim/P (where AETBclim and AETTclim are calculated from Turc and Budyko Eqs. (2) and (3), respectively; the AETBclim and AETTclim values have been scaled by the ratio of average AETwb in 1931–1993 and corresponding average AETBclim and AETTclim, respectively); developed annual hydropower production per unit catchment area and coefficient of variation of monthly runoff (CV(R)). a Slavonski Brod. b Kozluk
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4591234&req=5

Fig3: Change and variable co-development over the twentieth century shown as 20-year moving averages for: relative actual evapotranspiration (AETwb/P); relative evapotranspiration climate estimates of AETBclim/P and AETTclim/P (where AETBclim and AETTclim are calculated from Turc and Budyko Eqs. (2) and (3), respectively; the AETBclim and AETTclim values have been scaled by the ratio of average AETwb in 1931–1993 and corresponding average AETBclim and AETTclim, respectively); developed annual hydropower production per unit catchment area and coefficient of variation of monthly runoff (CV(R)). a Slavonski Brod. b Kozluk
Mentions: In order to further investigate the possible co-development of AETwb/P and hydropower production (as a proxy of also other hydropower-related changes in the SRC, such as those in surface area and volume of man-made water reservoirs; Fig. 2d), we distinguish two subcatchments of the SRC that differ greatly in terms of their hydropower development: Slavonski Brod and Kozluk (Fig. 1). Both Slavonski Brod and Kozluk exhibit similar changes as the whole SRC with regard to increase of T, and decrease of P and R (Fig. S1, Supplementary Material). Similarly to the whole SRC, increase in AETwb/P is also evident from year 1960 in both catchments (Fig. 3), but with a 2.7 times greater change magnitude in the Kozluk catchment (shift from 0.33 to 0.41) than in the Slavonski Brod catchment (shift from 0.52 to 0.55). Increases are then also visible in the purely climate-related AETBclim/P and AETTclim/P estimates for the Slavonski Brod catchment (Fig. 3a), but not for the Kozluk catchment where AETBclim/P and AETTclim/P instead decrease (Fig. 3b); scaling factors for AETBclim and AETTclim are 1.35 and 1.18, respectively, for Slavonski Brod, and 0.88 and 0.77, respectively, for Kozluk.Fig. 3

Bottom Line: In a hydropower dominated part of the SRC, unlike in an unregulated part, we find increase in average annual evapotranspiration and decrease in temporal runoff variability, which are not readily explainable by observed concurrent climate change in temperature and precipitation and may be more related to landscape-internal change drivers.Among the latter investigated here, results indicate hydropower developments as most closely related to the found hydroclimatic shifts, consistent with previous such indications in studies of Swedish hydropower catchments.Overall, the present results have quantitatively framed the recent history and present state of hydroclimate in the SRC, of relevance for water resources in several countries and for a majority of their populations.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering (SEED), Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Teknikringen 76, 100 44, Stockholm, Sweden. llevi@kth.se.

ABSTRACT
In this study, we investigate long-term hydroclimatic changes and their possible relation to regional changes in climate, land-use and water-use over the twentieth century in the transboundary Sava River Catchment (SRC) in South Eastern Europe. In a hydropower dominated part of the SRC, unlike in an unregulated part, we find increase in average annual evapotranspiration and decrease in temporal runoff variability, which are not readily explainable by observed concurrent climate change in temperature and precipitation and may be more related to landscape-internal change drivers. Among the latter investigated here, results indicate hydropower developments as most closely related to the found hydroclimatic shifts, consistent with previous such indications in studies of Swedish hydropower catchments. Overall, the present results have quantitatively framed the recent history and present state of hydroclimate in the SRC, of relevance for water resources in several countries and for a majority of their populations. This provides a useful basis for further assessment of possible future hydroclimatic changes, under different scenarios of climate change and land/water-use developments in the region.

No MeSH data available.