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Evaluation of the transmission risk of foot-and-mouth disease in Japan.

Hayama Y, Yamamoto T, Kobayashi S, Muroga N, Tsutsui T - J. Vet. Med. Sci. (2015)

Bottom Line: The distance-based transmission rate between farms, which was parameterized using the FMD epidemic data in 2010 in Japan, was used to calculate the local-level reproduction numbers-expected numbers of secondary infections caused by one infected farm-for all cattle and pig farms in the country, which were then visualized as a risk map.The risk map demonstrated the spatial heterogeneity of transmission risk in the country and identified risk areas with higher possibility of disease spread.This result suggests that, particularly in high-risk areas, it is important to prepare for the smooth and efficient implementation of control measures against FMD outbreaks.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 3-1-5 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0856, Japan.

ABSTRACT
The transmission risk of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Japan was evaluated using a mathematical FMD transmission model. The distance-based transmission rate between farms, which was parameterized using the FMD epidemic data in 2010 in Japan, was used to calculate the local-level reproduction numbers-expected numbers of secondary infections caused by one infected farm-for all cattle and pig farms in the country, which were then visualized as a risk map. The risk map demonstrated the spatial heterogeneity of transmission risk in the country and identified risk areas with higher possibility of disease spread. This result suggests that, particularly in high-risk areas, it is important to prepare for the smooth and efficient implementation of control measures against FMD outbreaks.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Distribution of the estimated local farm-level reproduction numbers.
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fig_001: Distribution of the estimated local farm-level reproduction numbers.

Mentions: The median value of the local farm-level reproduction number Rifor 89,826 farms in the country was estimated as 0.17 (5th–95th percentiles: 0.01–1.28), and93% of all farms showed local farm-level reproduction numbers of less than 1 (Fig. 1Fig. 1.


Evaluation of the transmission risk of foot-and-mouth disease in Japan.

Hayama Y, Yamamoto T, Kobayashi S, Muroga N, Tsutsui T - J. Vet. Med. Sci. (2015)

Distribution of the estimated local farm-level reproduction numbers.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4591161&req=5

fig_001: Distribution of the estimated local farm-level reproduction numbers.
Mentions: The median value of the local farm-level reproduction number Rifor 89,826 farms in the country was estimated as 0.17 (5th–95th percentiles: 0.01–1.28), and93% of all farms showed local farm-level reproduction numbers of less than 1 (Fig. 1Fig. 1.

Bottom Line: The distance-based transmission rate between farms, which was parameterized using the FMD epidemic data in 2010 in Japan, was used to calculate the local-level reproduction numbers-expected numbers of secondary infections caused by one infected farm-for all cattle and pig farms in the country, which were then visualized as a risk map.The risk map demonstrated the spatial heterogeneity of transmission risk in the country and identified risk areas with higher possibility of disease spread.This result suggests that, particularly in high-risk areas, it is important to prepare for the smooth and efficient implementation of control measures against FMD outbreaks.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 3-1-5 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0856, Japan.

ABSTRACT
The transmission risk of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Japan was evaluated using a mathematical FMD transmission model. The distance-based transmission rate between farms, which was parameterized using the FMD epidemic data in 2010 in Japan, was used to calculate the local-level reproduction numbers-expected numbers of secondary infections caused by one infected farm-for all cattle and pig farms in the country, which were then visualized as a risk map. The risk map demonstrated the spatial heterogeneity of transmission risk in the country and identified risk areas with higher possibility of disease spread. This result suggests that, particularly in high-risk areas, it is important to prepare for the smooth and efficient implementation of control measures against FMD outbreaks.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus